Short answer: if Ukraine falls it will predicate a geopolitical realignment that the US will have very little say in. The reason: Biden.
If Ukraine survives, there will still be a geopolitical realignment but to a lesser degree and US power will remain in play. Probably despite Biden.
Conclusion: If you don’t like military conflicts with Russia, don’t vote Democrat for the next decade or so.
Now, for those who prefer some meat on the bare bones, there is no good scenario for the US if Ukraine falls. Forget Biden and his almost certain impeachment – that was gonna happen anyway – a Russian victory spells nothing but trouble for the West and the US for the next few decades. Geopolitically, it strengthens Russia’s ties with China and the Third World. The latter matters because selling military hardware is how Russia funds its defense – and no one else buys their junk. This of course weakens the US’s economic standing, possibly significantly (although the sanctions do that too, just in a more controlled fashion). The bigger issue is the almost certain destabilization of Europe.
That’s the elephant in the room conservatives keep ignoring. What’s different about Ukraine from all of Russia’s other military incursions is that Ukraine is in EUROPE. Eastern Europe is now scared to death that the West will once again abandon them to be annexed by the Russians. Regardless of how correct that view is that’s what they are terrified of – and they aren’t alone. Western Europe lived with the specter of the Soviet Bear for over fifty years and they, too, fear a Russian takeover, albeit not as immediately.
This, plus about 6200 other, nuclear reasons, is why NATO still exists and will continue to exist for the foreseeable future. It’s easy to say you don’t need to worry about the kid that keeps throwing firecrackers on neighbor’s porches – until he burns down a house or two and starts tossing firecrackers your way.
A full on Russian incursion into Europe is an existential threat to all of Europe no matter what Russia actually intended. If not expanding NATO were actually the goal (I believe it was more of a wedge issue but I’ll discuss that in detail in another post) invading Ukraine has failed spectacularly. Both Sweden and Finland are now seriously looking at NATO membership – and unlike Ukraine, they can pretty readily meet the requirements. Turkey also may want full membership now – Turkey and Russia are wary allies at best and downright hate each other at worst. Turkey, too, has the capability of becoming a member state.
None of that is good for Russia. Nor is a Sino-Russian alliance going to save them. Sure, China would love a European-ish vassal state but tying a stone to a soggy piece of driftwood doesn’t end well for either. China has major problems at home and spending themselves into more debt plus risking worse sanctions is just not a good plan right now. They might be dumb enough – the CCP isn’t known for its intelligence – but the last time they tried this things ended badly for both the USSR and China. Instead of saving Russia, it could sink them both.
India is just insane if they are really trying to align with Russia and China. I suspect they are just freaking out – playing both sides is normally India’s thing and this situation is yanking on their tightrope – but three highly dependent economies none of which bring the right ingredients to the table is not going to work out any better than two. It may seem hard to believe, but both India and China can be replaced and there are a lot of poor nations with populations that would dearly love to take those jobs. Businesses hate moving – it’s expensive and usually overly costly – but businesses have already been moving out of China and the service industries in India are cheap to move – just ask the Philippines. Africa has a boatload of Chinese debt they need to repay – and US dollars would make that much, much easier.
Saudi Arabia? They bring nothing to the table – Russia doesn’t need their oil or the competition. Dubai is sooo last decade – allying with a new Eastern Bloc that can’t make literally anything without Western equipment and know how – this includes payments (CIPS uses SWIFT at the time of this writing) is probably not a great plan. Sure, they like to stick it to the US – probably the reason for the recent snub – but there’s a high price to pay if the new bloc can’t pull itself out of a pretty severe slump pretty danged fast.
How a new Eastern Bloc would trade with the rest of the world – not merely the Western nations – is a complete mystery. Neither Russia nor China have true blue water navies. China is better on paper than Russia – and their aircraft carrier doesn’t need Triple A, unlike Russia’s – but neither is able to project force far from its own shores. And the US Navy will no longer be providing assistance – which every pirate and rouge state on the planet will know. Giant ships full of goodies are tempting targets when you know that the US isn’t going to show up to spoil the fun – and that neither China nor Russia can. Tanks are cheap compared to warships.
So, you’re probably thinking, “but what about World War Three?!?!”. What about it? Russia is not in a good position to throw nukes – not even the so called tactical nukes. First, because that’s GOING to start a war with NATO. It would start conventional – maybe – but if Russia manages to launch even a bottle rocket after the first, there won’t be a Russia. AT ALL.
I mentioned the 6200 nuclear weapons that Russia is believed to have (stats vary depending on a variety of factors – but even cutting it down to the lower end of 1500 doesn’t change the calculus). Membership in the nuclear club is a double edged sword – because the only way to win a nuclear war that you are stupid enough to fight is to be the last man standing. That means that once a nation commits to a first strike, EVERYBODY gets to play, whether they want to or not. Russia needs to hit Europe and the US, of course, but also China, India, Israel, Iran and North Korea. They can’t risk the US missing any of the others – especially since the US may not strike all of them (Boy Scouts are so annoying when you are an evil villain) so they have to commit weapons to all targets – plus Ukraine because reasons.
The US – and every sane military – plans based on the assumption that all the opponent’s toys work. Russia can’t really plan on all its toys working – warheads are expensive to maintain and only idiots actually use them so… Add Russia’s massive corruption issues to its tiny defense budget and they can’t be sure a lot of their stuff will even launch, let alone detonate. Nuclear warheads are finicky and not all that shelf stable.
That means they can’t afford to launch most everything at the US and just drop spares on the rest of the club members – the only way to win is to leave no man standing. To be sure of that, Russia has to divide its arsenal among nearly a dozen target nations – and hope for the best. At the same time they are very painfully aware that the US doesn’t have the same problem. The US has a host of its own issues, but all our toys will work. The end result is a Pyrrhic victory at best and catastrophic defeat at worst.
Russia isn’t stupid or suicidal. Better to take a couple punches and comeback off the ropes later than to ensure losing now. Was there a real risk? Sure, initially, but it was miniscule and unless all of Russia’s ruling class, not just Putin, have completely and totally lose their minds, there will only be threats of tactical strikes but no actual attempts. Translation: Stop worrying about nuclear war.
But what if Russia loses the war? For Russia, that might be the best long term outcome – but the short term it ain’t gonna be pretty. There will be a LOT of threatening and posturing – we’re hearing it already. Here’s the part that no one is talking about – Russia isn’t just going to have to pull out of the Ukraine, it’s going to lose Crimea as well. That is going to really freak them out and it may get worse.
Russia sent Chechen forces into Ukraine. Now, maybe a miracle occurred and Chechnya is now solidly loyal to Russia but maybe Russia wants to keep those forces where they can watch them while they are busy trying to take over a sovereign country. Always put the guys most likely to backstab you out in front. IF – big if – that’s correct then Chechnya is not likely to stay passive if they smell Russian blood in the water. It’s possible (and MUCH too early to tell) that Russia loses Chechnya and with it both the Georgian territory and the Black Sea.
Wanna see a nation state act like a two year old? This will make it happen. Russia thinks it’s special because it’s been invaded so many times (Russia loses this historical hissy fit to Poland which has been Europe’s ping pong table for centuries). It has this idea that it needs protection – and a warm water port – or it’s doomed, doomed, I say! There’s some merit to the warm water port thing but it doesn’t know irrational the rest is – the Russian government has been built on that buffer zone principle for the last two centuries or so. Stripping it of the Black Sea and Chechnya will scare the you-know-what out of Moscow. They will not take it well. Just losing Crimea will have them pouting for the next decade.
All kinds of fun and stupidity will result – but not suicide. Nuclear war is technically winnable – not that the prize is worth it – but as things stand today, only the US can win it. We’d be badly hurt – this is not a game we should ever consider playing – but on Day Two we would still be fighting where Russia would just be smoldering. While it’s a cool ending to Star Trek Two – The Wrath of Khan, blowing up everybody, especially knowing that the other side will survive and you won’t – is just beyond the pale stupid. Russia is proud of its strength and that it is a survivor – nuclear war is no way to end your story when you are a proud nation.
It’s also something only losers do. Losing a battle in a long political game hurts – but the object is still to win, not knock over the chessboard in total defeat.
