Originally written 2/25/22
I admit, I didn’t expect Russia to go in after leaving their troops in plain sight for weeks. In my very non-expert military opinion that was stupid – and I thought the Russians were a bit brighter than that.
What I think happened is Russia saw a chance at low hanging fruit and went for it. A weak US president with an already horrendous foreign policy track record coupled with weeks of no real significant response out of the US or NATO – including a weak response to the taking of the breakaway republics made the Russians confident that they wouldn’t face much in the way of consequences so they went for it.
The Ukrainian military and civilians are making them regret that decision and it only gets worse from here. If you’d asked me Monday if the Russians could invade I’d have told you that the only thing stopping them from going all the way to the French seaside was NATO being backed by the US. On the ground and on paper, the Russian military is formidable. Now, er, not so much.
They needed a fast win and they failed pretty miserably. The sad part is Putin already had the political win – no one was going to force the Russians out of the breakaway republics and the lackluster response from NATO made them look stronger. Having a bunch of civilians with Molotovs holding off arguably the first or second mightiest ground force on Earth does not exactly project strength. Bringing crematoria so you don’t have to send body bags home is infinitely worse politically – that is an indication of how badly things are going back in Russia.
The longer the Ukrainians hold out, the more likely a NATO response – from pure embarrassment more than anything else. Both the embarrassment of how flatfooted this caught NATO and Russia’s military embarrassment (seriously, if the Ukrainians shot down an SU-35 that’s beyond embarrassing) which makes Russia look a lot less invincible.
Which brings us to the elephant in the room – would the Russians go nuclear? Given the overwhelming power they had and yet the inability to gain a quick victory, I think we have to wonder if they even can. ICBM’s require a LOT of upkeep – and Russia is plagued both by funding issues and military corruption. Messing up a missiles’ maintenance is a lot worse than forgetting to change the oil.
Still, you only need one to make it to target to really ruin a country’s day. The Russians are estimated to have either parity or a slight disadvantage in deployed* nuclear weapons with the US depending on who you ask. On paper, there’s no significant difference. The Russians have been testing hypersonic missiles (these are mostly for going after aircraft carriers as I understand it) but haven’t deployed them as yet. What that translates to is if their nuclear arsenal actually works (and certainly a good bit will) everyone loses if they fire the first strike.
If they don’t all work, Russia will hurt the US just before it becomes a large slag pile. Still not a win, not even a Pyrrhic victory – nuclear war isn’t a winnable thing, unless you count ‘standing but bleeding everywhere’.
But I don’t think fear of the US is the most operative stop here – Russia shares a very big border with China. They aren’t friends. And if Russia were crippled by the US, Russia would be the more appealing target for China – and the one they can reach. It goes from a lose-lose for Russia to a lose-lose-lose and keep losing.
It’s a far cry from taking advantage of a weak opponent to committing out and out suicide. Russia has way too much on its plate without that.
NATO and the US are pissed. The Russian people are at least somewhat resistant – only the first signs of protest are showing in Moscow so it’s impossible to gauge. Sanctions even from Germany – and Germany is danged near codependent on Russia for natural gas. Troops mobilizing in surrounding nations – this is quickly becoming a massive headache for Russia.
Worse, thanks to China’s warmongering about Taiwan for the last year or so, the US can’t let this go and really, neither can any of its allies. First Ukraine then Taiwan – nope, not gonna. Hornet’s nest is an understatement.
Will the US go in to Ukraine? Not immediately – but we don’t have to. The smart move is to covertly send in supplies to the Ukrainian military – let NATO and the Ukraine take the lead for once. Western Europe isn’t in a good position and now it knows it – making an enemy aware of their weakness is a bad plan if that enemy can get stronger. Western Europe needs to step up for its own sake.
Eastern Europe already knows that. The Balkans are probably freaking.
Unless Russia pulls a major rabbit out of its hat, this is going to become Afghanistan 2.0.
We’ll just have to wait and see – and send aid. Lots and lots of aid.
*In overall numbers, the US has a huge advantage. This only matters if we can get those weapons fired which is probably not a thing or not going to matter. Nuclear war: just say no.
