No.
Seriously, people who pick up Molotov cocktails and shotguns to take on TANKS are not going to crumble because the US is late with a delivery or ten. Not immediately, anyway.
Sure, they legitimately need the aid and it should have been there by now, but they were at war more than two years before the US finally decided to send lethal aid sometime in 2017. No, they can’t hold out forever against the economic power Russia can bring to bear. But Ukraine isn’t so precarious that they are falling just because they don’t have all they need today.
Nor is Russia the height of military prowess. More guys is not a plan.
En route to Ukraine are the rightly renowned F-16s. Skip the silly ‘game changer’ language, but these things do bring quite a bit to the table. For one, they can talk to the missiles they fire a WHOLE lot better than the jury rigged SU-29‘s. Hey, be impressed that Poland and Ukraine managed to get those Russian planes to talk to AMRAAMs at ALL. Getting US weapons to fire from Russian platforms is no small feat.
But it doesn’t get you the professional version. F-16s can make those missiles sing in ways that the SU-29 simply can’t. Translation: already dangerous missiles are about to go into overdrive.
But, but, Spring Offensive!
Russia does have better artillery shell stockpiles and they are talking about sending 150,000 new soldiers into Ukraine. Let’s be conservative here and assume the Russia has enough sense to improve the training and equipment they are sending with these guys. They will be fresh troops. That is probably bad.
From any nation-state not named Russia.
Russia’s top down, reach objective at all costs, meatgrinder approach to warfare eats up its own men, materiel and supplies. Despite the naysaying, the sanctions are biting. Artillery shells don’t bring down planes unless the pilot did something REALLY stupid. Russia is losing the tech superiority that kept the skies somewhat clear and the logistics to supply troops.
Funny, but starving men aren’t good fighters. Armies still fight on their bellies in more way than one.
Basically, I’m not hearing any experts that expect Russia to pull a rabbit out of its hat this time. Or that are expecting the Ukrainians to rout the Russian lines. They seem to be expecting Stalemate, Part Three.
Not great but not so bad, either. Ukraine has been making the Black Sea Fleet into the world’s dumbest collection of artificial reefs. Remember, there aren’t going to be any new warships coming in to help. Yes, this is why you aren’t hearing about grain shipments and blockades any longer. Ukraine is getting its grain out.
When the Soviet Union collapsed a huge part of the shipbuilding know how and capability went with Ukraine. Russia nearly leveled Mykolaiv and with it both the infrastructure and the institutional knowledge to run shipyards capable of building aircraft carriers. If using Mykolaiv was Plan B, Russia is gonna need a Plan C.
In the meantime, the little nation without a navy is sinking all the Russian’s ships.
Yeah, too early to count the Ukrainians out yet.
In an unsurprising turn of events – at least unsurprising to anyone who isn’t stuck on Realpolitik for their political analysis – Europe is stepping up to the plate to provide aid while the US sorts its internal disputes out. Long term, this is both good and bad for the US. Our rep does take a hit but having Europe as a permanent dependent was never the plan. It’ll make long term relations with the EU more fun – note the dripping sarcasm – than they’d have been otherwise but it’s not the end of the world.
Well, it is nice to know the Europeans can do some stuff without us.
Oh, don’t fret. I think Johnson has about decided that the border is hurting Biden’s reelection far more than getting aid to Ukraine will help. Would have been nice if he’d realized that three months ago but better late than never, I suppose. It’ll be tricky for him to get the aid out without a border deal but not impossible. I’m not convinced he won’t get another border offer. That open border is really hurting the Democrats in New York, California and Illinois.
If giving illegals the vote was the plan, it backfired. They’re all getting bussed to Democrat strongholds where they can’t make any electoral difference. Chicago’s mayor has been begging for Federal help that he has zero chance of getting. Johnson isn’t going to allow that kind of package anywhere near the floor.
Trump’s numbers in the primaries were insane. Biden’s were pathetic. Polling is not being kind to the Democrats. For all the talk about Republicans falling apart, wait until the Democrats get a good look at their reelection chances in the ‘sanctuary cites’ and surrounds. Their constituents are mad at THEM, not the Republicans.
For Ukraine that should translate to a more flexible Democrat party willing to make real deals to get some sort of win on the table. I’m not as optimistic as I was in December. I keep underestimating the Democrats willingness to shoot off their own toes. But I still expect the $65 million will get freed up by May, June at the latest.
The Democrat Convention is in Chicago this year. The earful Chicagoans will be giving Democrats should bring them to the table with something Johnson can sell to his party base. Assuming they are stupid enough to wait that long but given the Democrat propensity for toe shooting, maybe we shouldn’t assume they aren’t that stupid.
Ukraine and Europe will not be amused. But Ukraine will still be in the fight. The Ukrainians don’t seem real well acquainted with the word ‘quit’.
But. but TRUMP! Surely he’ll pull all Ukraine aid! Orban said so!
Calm down. Viktor Orban is my favorite slightly despotic European ruler. Yes, I really mean that. You gotta love a guy who’s favorite hobby is poking the European Union in the eye. But Orban’s real strength is that he does his actual job – he takes care of Hungary.
Which means he’s playing on Team Hungary and you best believe he’s bringing his A game. Ukraine is not in Hungary’s best interest if it falls. Hungary is MASSIVELY dependent on Russian gas. Being landlocked has some big disadvantages. Orban NEEDS Putin to like him enough to keep the gas flowing and the tanks heading some other direction if Ukraine does lose.
Misrepresenting something Trump said or even misunderstanding because he needs Trump to be pro-Russia are well within the rules of the game.
What everyone keeps forgetting is that despite all his bluster, Trump has been relatively non-committal about Ukraine. The other thing they forget is that first round of lethal aid that Ukraine so desperately needed back in the day came from Trump.
Now, given a choice between reading War and Peace or trying to second guess Trump, I’m going to spend a few weeks with Tolstoy. Trump could indeed be planning to pull Ukraine aid but he’s sure not saying much about it. Weird, Ukraine is Biden’s only winning issue and Biden is vulnerable there. Trump could come out swinging over the stalemate and the mishandling but he seems content to let Biden slide on Ukraine.
But ending aid would play well to Trump’s base and a portion of Biden’s. Yet, Trump isn’t pushing this. He hasn’t even said what he’d do about the aid.
Orban’s comments went over like a lead balloon. It’s possible that Trump used Orban to see how well it would play but I still doubt it. Trump is a deal maker at heart. He’s not going to take anything off the table he can use. Aid is leverage against Russia and Trump knows it.
See, to end the war with a phone call, that call cannot be to Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy doesn’t have the capability even if you could sell him on the idea of a surrender. If his people wanted to surrender they don’t need his consent but he certainly needs theirs. No, that one phone call has to be to Putin.
“Hey, Vlad. Declare Ukraine denazified and the war won. We’ll drop the sanctions and get your cash unfrozen. Otherwise, I’m asking Congress for $100 billion in aid to Ukraine. Whatta ya say?”
Trump will probably make the offer sound a lot better than that but if there’s one thing Trump knows, it’s when he’s got the better end of a deal.
He wrote the book, after all.
