It amazes me how dumb young people can be. Mostly because I realize I must have been a moron when I was their age. I always thought the brain grew in around age 25. Now I’m beginning to wonder if any one under forty has one.

Yeah, yeah, cranky old lady is being unfair. But I keep seeing the same stupid thing and from my own side of the street. Usually we expect the inane from the Left but the Ukraine War seems to be a ‘hold my beer’ moment for parts of the Right.

The latest bit of stupidity came from a reforming Leftist Ana Kasparian of The Young Turks which I admit I saw on the Liberal Hivemind. Both oppose support to Ukraine which is fine, everyone has a right to their opinion. But could we PLEASE not be irrational about it? Irrationality hasn’t worked for the Left so how about we skip it?

So, what was so crazy? Ana’s answer to her cohost’s support for Ukraine was a sharp ‘why not have peace talks?’.

Single, stupidest thing EVER.

I get it, no one likes war, nor should they, but Russia and Ukraine DID THIS ALREADY. Russia wants to keep all the territory it has taken. Ukraine wants all its territory back. That doesn’t leave a lot of negotiating room.

Even if it did, the US and Russia have a treaty with Ukraine to ‘ensure their sovereign territory’ (Budapest Agreement). Ukraine kept its part of that bargain. Neither Russia nor the US did in 2014 when Russia took Crimea. People complain about the bad things the US has done – and rightly so – but compounding a wrong by repeating it is not an improvement.

But, but Minsk! Yeah, no. Minsk is kinda dubious. Treaties are just glorified contracts and contracts aren’t valid if made under duress. Neither really are treaties. Basically, if you are signing because someone is twisting your arm, the law won’t enforce the contract nor does international law really recognize such treaties. I’m way oversimplifying the issues with both the Minsk accords but the only point I’ll make is that they don’t invalidate Budapest nor to they justify Russia’s invasion so they don’t actually matter for this.

What’s all that got to do with peace talks being stupid? Peace talks aren’t stupid but both sides have to be willing to negotiate in good faith. The stupid part is expecting parties that don’t want a deal to sit down to peace talks.

Ukraine is perfectly happy to stop shooting at Russians on one condition: that the Russians leave Ukrainian territory as defined in 2014, pre-first invasion. Russia is perfectly happy to stop shooting at Ukrainians also on one condition: that the Ukrainians hand over the entirety of the illegally annexed territories.

You’re thinking ‘well, they could give up a little…’, aren’t you? Did that ever work with the bully that took your lunch money? Doesn’t work with nation-states, either. Russia could be talked into settling for the territory they occupy – Ukraine would not agree – but only temporarily. Once rewarded for invading – well, they were already rewarded once with Crimea, remember? How’d that work out?

Ukraine has nothing to gain by giving up territory and everything to lose. Today, the West is honoring the spirit of the Budapest agreement, but will they in five years if Russia invades again? Who knows? I might suspect so but why would Ukraine risk it?

Ukraine also has an incentive to stay away from negotiations: they’re grinding the Russians down. I know, you keep hearing that the sanctions aren’t working. Guess again. Sanctions are an economic siege, not a skirmish. Translation: They don’t work fast but they are devastating when they do work. Ask Cuba and Iran.

Sanctions are actually best used against a combatant nation and not merely an opposing one. Basically, if a nation-state is at war, it doesn’t need the strain sanctions can and will cause where a nation-state not at war is better able to bear the burden. Russia needs stuff it can’t produce effectively at home. Russia can’t buy that stuff. Russia needs capital to buy what it can. Russia can’t make money like it did. The effect isn’t immediate but it is very, very profound.

Not seeing so many ‘lookie, we have Coke’ videos out of Russia nowadays, are you?

Iran and North Korea combined don’t have the economic might that France alone can muster on Ukraine’s behalf. China is sitting the military part very much out. Without China, that entire block of nation-states – even if you threw in the rest of BRICS – cannot begin to match what NATO is pumping into Ukraine.

Remember, most of that aid really initially went to Eastern European allies to backfill all the Russian and Soviet stuff they were shipping as fast as they could to Ukraine. Only now are we really looking at sending things like Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets – you know, OUR bright shiny stuff. Still think Iran and North Korea can keep up?

So, what’s in it for Ukraine to come to the negotiating table today? The only way to negotiate is to be ready to give something up. You cannot come to the negotiating table empty-handed. Why give up Crimea when they have a reasonable shot of retaking it? Why give up anything if they can just let Russia burn itself out?

More to the point, if Ukraine loses 20% of its territory, they are done as a nation-state. Even if we rebuild them – and FYI, Russia should have to pay for that – they would only have one port to service their entire grain industry. They would lose most of their best agricultural land. They would also lose a major oil field. Oh yeah, and a very strategically important naval base.

What would they gain? A few years of tense peace until Russia got strong enough to come take the rest?

But, but, war bad!

Damn straight war is bad. But sometimes it’s the only way to a meaningful, lasting peace.

Just ask the guys that fought World War II.