Nope. See y’all next…

You guys are really into details aren’t you?

Okay, from the top. Trump is a businessman and a deal maker. He might not like a given policy but he’s not going to sacrifice all the assets just to dump the policy. If he were going to do stupid stuff like that he’d have pulled out of Afghanistan as disastrously as Biden did. Trump isn’t going to miss a good opportunity for a deal.

So yes, he’s made comments about getting the thing resolved on Day One. Trump literally wrote the book ‘The Art of the Deal’. Does that mean he’ll pull support from Ukraine? I doubt it. There are two parties and Trump won’t have missed that bit.

Nor do I expect Trump will be wild about letting Russia keep playing this bully you way into taking other people’s stuff thing. That’s simply because you can’t deal with people – or nation states – like that. Giving Russia everything it wants is a lose-lose for the US and Trump certainly knows it.

If he somehow doesn’t, he’ll find out quickly as all of Eastern Europe parks on the White House doorstep.

People forget that this isn’t just the US, Russia and Ukraine – there are a LOT of interested parties. Topping that list are the Eastern European nations. Western Europe comes in a close second. Russia is a proximate and very real threat to both. Guess who isn’t going to stop supporting Ukraine even if the US pulls out?

Also take a guess at how many allies will be ticked off at the US if it pulls out?

There’s no way to win by just dumping Ukraine and Trump knows it.

That doesn’t mean Trump is stuck with supporting Ukraine. It is just going to require some finesse if the only objective is ending support. However, there is another option.

The option I think Trump will try for is a negotiated Russian withdrawal. Don’t laugh. It’s true enough that Biden can’t get such a deal but the calculus changes with a Trump presidency. Russia is trying to wait out Ukraine’s support. They do not have the staying power to last until 2028 and they know it. Not even if China decides to play nice – Russia just doesn’t have the means to keeps going or the money to buy their way into those means.

Russia is literally trying to buy shells from North Korea. They are buying body armor from China (unclear how ‘official’ this is). Russia is recruiting in any country that has even slightly good relations with Russia. These are all things that indicate Russia is in a world of hurt.

In the meantime, Ukraine is nibbling away at their defensive lines.

Russia is buying time in the hope that the US will lose interest under a new president – or that Biden will should he be re-elected. They are breaking the kid’s piggy banks to do it. Russia doesn’t have enough to make it to 2028.

And Trump knows it.

A deal making businessman isn’t going to take the loss when he smells blood in the water. He’s also not going to screw Russia over – that just makes things worse down the line. No, he’s going to find the win-win deal. That deal isn’t on the table today – but it will be in January of 2024.

By then Russia will be getting desperate for a way out. Trump only needs to let them declare victory and exit with a trade deal. Now, the particulars won’t be easy and Russia won’t like not getting Crimea but if anyone understands how to make the deal you need to achieve the big win for everyone, it’s Donald J. Trump.

In my opinion, Trump isn’t the end for Ukraine but exactly the man they need.

It won’t hurt that Ukraine can bring the receipts for a bunch of things Trump will want to attend to back home.

The Art of the Deal indeed.