Yes, kinda, but mostly no.
I watched a video from Caspian Reports Monday morning about Europe’s ongoing efforts to rearm and decrease their dependency on American defense. Funniest video he’s ever done. I kept cracking up and had to stop the video a few times so I wouldn’t miss anything.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t supposed to be funny.
Don’t get this wrong. I like Caspian Reports and he does good work. I definitely recommend it as a good source for basic overview analysis. But we all have those days…
At this point, since I see the same pattern in a lot of younger commentators, I’m assuming that it’s the changing tone of politics in the West as a whole that is throwing him. I have the advantage of having grown up in an uncertain and fairly contentious world. Politics got pretty placid for a time after the fall of the Soviet Union so it’s only natural that as the world regains a more normal footing it will disorient those who grew up in a calm spot of world history.
Europe hasn’t been as boisterous as the US like ever, but it used to be a lot more vibrant. Two world wars are bound to take a lot out of anybody. Europe is nowhere near as risk tolerant as the probably overly risk tolerant US and it can’t really deal with internal conflict very well. Most of its systems for that seem to be formal and oppressive. A return to the stormy nature of world politics is going to be hardest for Europeans.
It’s also inevitable. Time for the big boy pants, Guys.
I’m confident Europe can regain its equilibrium and vibrancy, but that’s a very, very long process. Three decades of socialism lite and pretending that no real people are on the right side of the spectrum have left Europe on shaky ground for relearning this whole ‘getting along and being grown up nation states’ thing. It’s hard and it takes time.
Time is not a commodity Europe has in the defense sphere, however.
But that’s not what made Caspian’s video so hilarious. That has to do with the assumption underlying the entire video that Europe, the EU and the various European nations can unify quickly enough despite the immense political pain that will accompany trying to rebuild their defense sector – and pay for it.
Oh, they’re talking big right now and Europe will unquestionably start putting money into defense. They’re scared, confused and stuck so that much will get done.
But rebuilding their economies when that will require deregulation? Actually cutting social spending to put money toward defense?
Not. A. Chance.
The US has been subsidizing European social welfare programs and entitlements since before my decrepit self was even born! In the ultimate proof of the concept of the fungibility of money, the US has been paying massive amounts for defense that covers Europe. After the fall of the Soviet Union particularly but even well before that, Europe made a habit of short changing its defense sectors, knowing the US would pick up the slack.
Guess where most of that money went?
The ‘bread and circus’ idea is too simplistic but, yeah, it’s pretty apt, too. Amazing how well a political party can stay in power if it gives enough people goodies without angering the rest too much. Europe bought itself a very long period of political apathy trying to avoid the discontent and fracturing of the early Twentieth century.
You can’t blame them to an extent. Two world wars, both with insanely stupid causes, would make anyone sane think twice. They scared themselves stupid.
They scared the crap out of the US, too. Part of why we agreed to this insanity so very long was to keep Europe stable.
You whippersnappers haven’t a clue. World War II was devastating beyond your conception. I’m closer to it in age but I doubt I fully ‘get it’. Very, very little of the damage came to American shores so while we paid a high price in blood and treasure fighting World War II, we didn’t suffer the same kind of damage to the national psyche.
Two thirds of Dresden were laid flat by British and American bombers. Not in ten months like what happened in Gaza, but in two NIGHTS. By the time the war was over, all of Europe had to be rebuilt in one way or another.
Which explains why Europe got so very gun shy. What it doesn’t do is justify nation states farming out their defense almost entirely to an ally, not even the US.
No, this isn’t the first time the US has raised defense issues with Europe and has pressured Europe to up its spending. That was a lot easier during the Cold War but the issue has come up between the US and Europe repeatedly in the last three and a half decades. The difference is this time the US has a president who isn’t taking ‘no’ as an answer.
Which wrecks their safe little bubble. Nation states are NOT supposed to live in safe little bubbles. Long term, Trump may be the best thing to ever happen to Europe because he’s kicked them out of their complacency.
But he hasn’t yet spurred them into real action. That’s what Caspian assumes incorrectly. Europe will make a lot of noise – kids about to go behind the woodshed usually do.
I am NOT explaining ‘behind the woodshed’. Look it up! Whippersnappers.
European governments will make some investments and cut some ribbons in front of cameras. But when the time comes to actually fund this kind of massive shift, Europe will pretend nothing happened. They will get a lot better but only until the bill comes due. Then they will skip, just like they always do.
Europe is getting better. The invasion into Ukraine was a major league wake up call. Europe’s biggest problem right now is that its governments think they are a lot more competent than they really are. They did unify after the invasion a whole lot better than anyone would have predicted – we’re kinda proud of them for that – but only the Eastern parts really put themselves on the line. Estonia was dearming itself by sending weapons to Ukraine just after the invasion before the US had a chance to say anything about being a backstop.
That’s some kind of gutsy, Estonia.
Germany sent humanitarian aid. Eventually, it managed to unknot its bureaucracy enough to send weapons. They did step up to the plate, but Estonia was unquestionably the better batter.
We won’t mention that Germany tried to stop Estonia at one point. No one’s perfect.
Point being, if a war on their doorstep won’t get Europe off its collective backside, a few tariffs sure as heck won’t. They will gripe and bellyache about how unfair the US is being and how unreliable. It’s the international version of a ten year old holding their breath until the parents give in. Trouble is, Dad is on to your trick.
I know, I know, all the headlines about ‘Trump caved’, ‘the US will back down’, et cetera, et cetera. Guess again. This is just the beginning of the noise in the political space that occurs as nations tussle. Just checkers being moved around the board. You can pretend we’re playing chess if you prefer, but the idea is the same. The game has only just started and the Lamestream media is totally clueless as to what’s happening on the board.
It doesn’t help that Trump likes it when everyone else is confused. All we know for sure is that the game just started.
Oh, and Trump really doesn’t like to lose.
Which means no, the US won’t back down. Trump will maneuver, but he won’t cave in. We’re playing a new game now whether or not the rest of the world likes it. The US is no longer going to allow herself to be taken advantage of because the days when that was to the US’ advantage are long over.
Whatever game we end up playing, the board will be fair or the US will toss it against the wall. Again.
It’ll probably take a decade or more for Europe to understand the memo. Sadly, Europe will delude itself for a good while longer that the US is still going to act in everyone else’s best interest instead of her own. And European leaders will keep right on telling themselves how much smarter they are than those provincial Americans.
So once the tantrum fails, manipulation will ensue.
What won’t happen is real, decisive and significant economic and defense realignments. Those are bitter pills to swallow and Europe will refuse to believe they have to take their medicine. Until they run out of other options – in about a decade or so.
The opening moves are nearly over. I expect Europe will fairly quickly move to resolve the trade conflict. It’ll take longer than it should but they will reduce both tariffs and barriers to US goods. The US will return the favor.
Then sell them a few hundred F-35’s.
So, yeah, Europe will make some improvements in their defense industries and how those contracts are financed. That will go a long way to improving things but it won’t make Europe independent of the US in either trade or defense. Europe cannot replace several key systems with their own at present – they need a major investment in R&D to get started. It’s cheaper and less scary to just buy Patriot batteries and F-35’s.
Even then, those purchases will fall far short of Europe’s actual needs. But in a choice between the socialistic welfare state or actually being able to defend themselves, eight weeks of vacation time are going to win out over not becoming Russian puppets nine times out of ten. Europe has a long way to go to becoming the grown up international alliance it thinks it is.
Step One is being taken right now, whether or not Europe likes it.
You know, we might could throw in a backbone to go with those F-35’s if you’re interested.
Europe?
