Probably.

I know what you’re thinking – China will invade Taiwan. That’s all anyone talks about! Of course they will attack Taiwan! Russia and China are friends! China will definitely invade Taiwan!

It’s possible but getting less likely by the day. Maybe by the minute.

On paper, China would be a pain in the backside for the US and her allies to fend off and keep out of Taiwan. In reality, China stands no chance whatsoever of defeating Taiwan, let alone the US and company.

Don’t get me wrong – those missile systems would HURT. Stupid but trained people can mess up your whole day. But the Chinese military lacks any actual experience dealing with a modern force that knows what it’s doing. Chinese coast guard cutters annoy the heck out of fishing boats and their jets play idiotic games of chicken with Taiwanese, US, Korean, Japanese, and Philippine forces. Annoying and dangerous, you bet. Experienced combat forces? Not a chance.

Translation: Chinese forces will inflict damage. They will also lose – badly.

But why would the CCP want to go to war at all? China is the second largest economy in the world and they have all that Belt and Road stuff! A war would just screw everything up!

It would – if any of that were as good in reality as it looks on paper. China’s economy is in the toilet. Their ‘wolf warrior’ nonsense has convinced most nation states that they are insane – and belligerent. Western companies were beginning to pull out way back in 2016 as the political landscape in China soured. That is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

The theory goes the CCP bought off its own people. You stay out of politics; we let you all get rich. It was working, sorta, until Xi Jinping decided his political fortunes were more important than the party or the country. That would have been a solvable problem had the economy not come off the rails. Now the CCP doesn’t have the economic moxie to fulfill its end of the bargain. Worse, the CCP has no clue how to handle the entire population being ticked all at once. While pitchforks are unlikely, mass unrest of any sort is more than the CCP can handle.

Thing is, Taiwan is just one of many neighbors China wants to attack. The CCP doesn’t want a real fight – they could lose that and it would look bad. No, they want and need a significant victory. Something that makes all the papers and makes China look invincible. Ask Japan how well that worked out with the US. No, no, nothing that gets a US response will do.

But the US doesn’t like Russia now, does it?

No, I’m not kidding. It’s possible the CCP just tends to its increasingly flatlining economy but I doubt it. They need a victory, preferably an easy one, and significant gains. Russia is struggling against a bunch of Ukrainians with old NATO stuff. Russia is being propped up by China and a few self serving ‘allies’, none of which are doing Russia any favors. Russia is weakening. China knows it.

On the long list of things China wants for Christmas are a bunch from Mother Russia. First off, they want direct access to the Arctic and its potential mineral wealth. Then there’s that little slice of former Mandarin territory a bit of which China just added back to its maps. Vladivostok would be a lovely addition to China’s list of ports. Best of all is Lake Balkai with all that wonderful freshwater just sitting there to be pumped down to Northern China and wasted.

But, but, friendship with no limits! That’s right – China doesn’t do limits. If backstabbing will get the CCP what it wants, well, what’s a little backstabbing between friends?

I wonder if Russian diplomats aren’t getting an earful from North Korea as they try to buy ammo? Probably, the North Koreans are dependent on the Chinese but there is no love lost between them. North Korea needs to replace the CCP as their security guarantor and they need someone that doesn’t mind a little authoritarian dictatorship. Russia would fit that bill if they have the smarts to listen.

Of course, Russia was stupid enough to invade Ukraine, so this may not work out NK.

It boils down to Russia is weak and the CCP needs a win to stabilize its grip on power.

The CCP could attack the well defended and strongly allied Taiwan just to find out if the US is half as tough as its reputation. That’s a great way to find out how well submarines can sink all your troop carriers. Is the CCP that stupid? Probably but they have lower hanging fruit.

What about nukes?

That’s a real concern for China. The Russians aren’t insane enough to attack Europe with so much as a nuclear firecracker. The US has a LOT more weapons that all work. Russia doesn’t want to play that game.

But China? Russia has a lot more nukes than China does – on paper. China has neither the arsenal nor the experience of the Americans. Russia would likely be much more willing to nuke a few kilometers of Chinese territory to make its point.

Trouble is, Russia has little of its nuclear arsenal pointed China’s way and most everything is on the western side for some strange reason. China is well aware of that, too. China is on record as a no first strike country but a couple well placed ICBM’s might stop the nuclear threat before it starts.

Wouldn’t the US get involved? Very good! You’re paying attention! The answer is yes, but not necessarily soon or hard enough. There is a nuclear risk if China attacks Russia but there is also a chance that the US will make it very clear, very fast that nukes are off limits. The US doesn’t need to have the largest arsenal, it has something much more valuable: a reputation for competence and capability.

ICBM’s are pretty danged useless if you can’t fire them. Ask North Korea. It keeps terrorizing fish as its test fires misfire. Odds are that has to do with their strict closure of the border with China but regardless, every misfire weakens North Korea’s perceived threat.

Russia and China have long issues with corruption. Remember, the tires on that 40 mile long parking lot Russia created as it invaded Ukraine? Those were from China. Both Russia and China believe that corners were meant to be cut. Ask California how well contracting with a Chinese company for a bridge went. I think they are still in litigation on that one.

Some of China and Russia’s nuke will work. ALL of America’s nukes PLUS all of her massive arsenal of military weapons and equipment will work as advertised. Ticking off the US to the point of a firefight is just suicide and both Russia and China know it. Russia would rather take the loss, lick its wounds and comeback to bite than risk total destruction.

It’s dangerous calculus but the CCP is nothing if not stupid. Knowing that Russia fears the US, China might just take the chance on a big invasive attack. But why bother when the CCP can do what it does best? Itty bitty baby steps – tiny invasions to secure territory when Russia appears weakest.

If China invades anything, it’ll be Russia in tiny bite sized chunks. Big win for China, right?

Not hardly. Oh, they can take the territory easily enough but they will be counting on the West to take out Russia. Ukraine would love to oblige but that’s not going to happen. If Russia turns eastward, NATO will give its full blessing.

That works for Russia. It gets them out of Ukraine without looking like total losers. Russia won’t care. It’ll be out for Chinese blood. Those ICBMs work without nuclear payloads – if they work at all, of course. But as long as nothing glows afterwards, the US won’t mind – much. Russia has the experience China lacks. China has more bright shiny equipment. The US has plenty of popcorn.

Russia has a huge advantage over the US in dealing with China – they know exactly what to hit. The US doesn’t really understand the informal systems both Russia and China depend on but they do. Russia is far more dangerous to the CCP than the US will ever be.

Will it happen? Dunno but it’s a lot more likely than an attack on Taiwan. Just getting their navy sunk won’t get China or the CCP anywhere. I suspect there will be some kind of incident within the next six months or so. China is running out of time.

Everyone thinks a Trump presidency will be disastrous for Ukraine. I doubt it. I’ll talk about that Wednesday. For now, I think China is fearful of a Trump presidency far more than any other nation state. Biden might be a pain in their side but he can be ignored for the moment. Trump is a lot of things but none of them add up to ‘safe to ignore’.

If the CCP wants to flex its military muscles it will have to do it soon. If it doesn’t it may lose any chance to gain the military reputation it is desperate to get. Nukes are useless for anything other than defense. The CCP needs leverage over the international community and military prowess will buy that leverage. It doesn’t have to be a full on conquest – any old victory will do.

So they believe. Hasn’t done Russia much good but China sees itself as better than the US.

The CCP is in deep trouble. No, there won’t be any torches and pitchforks bringing them down but the internal instability is already showing. The CCP needs to get the upper hand somewhere. Squaring off against the US has already cost them – those bases in the Philippines are ruining China’s domination plans for the South China Sea. China needs to flex its muscles and show off for the world.

Smacking Russia fits the bill.