I don’t know and neither does anyone else.
Look, in the last twenty-four hours there have been a lot of reports of Biden being ready to drop out, either by Monday or being in talks about what a withdrawal will look like. Zero of these come from on record sources and zero come from the Biden camp. They could be correct, or they could be hot air.
As of this writing on 7/19/24 Noon CST, I suspect they are all hot air but hot air with a purpose.
One of the reasons for releasing a bunch of anonymous claims is to put pressure on Biden to step aside. Perception can become reality and as people start believing that Biden’s removal is a done deal, it becomes harder and harder for Biden to run a campaign. Any other candidate would quit.
But that ignores the fact that it is of no benefit to Biden himself to quit.
Heck, it may not even benefit the party. Three weeks into this growing disaster and the Democrats still haven’t got a replacement candidate. Even if Biden steps aside, there are no good options to run in his place. The bumbling primaries and the obvious deviousness in trying to remove Biden from the nomination he already won rather than the office he is clearly unfit for make the Democrats look like self serving incompetents.
Who wants to vote for that party?
The party is turning on its elected nominee. It has no structural means of ousting a candidate for the nomination between the primaries and the convention so it is desperately trying to pressure Biden into doing what they want.
Not what he wants.
If the Biden camp wanted to signal a surrender, it likely wouldn’t be anonymous sources going to independent news outlets. That’s the kind of thing you do when you’re trying to run up a flag to see if it flies. A surrender would involve Biden loyalists and the campaign no longer asserting that he plans to continue the campaign. They would instead make quiet comments about the sadness of the situation and how Biden wants what is best for the country.
Then the campaign would make its announcement. Best to get the worst over fast.
The last twenty-four hours appear to me to be increased pressure on Biden to quit. I don’t see the Biden camp doing anything consistent with him actually getting ready to quit.
And I still see no leverage that would force him to quit. Biden is more than wealthy enough to build his own danged presidential library. If the reports of threats to deny him a presidential library if he stays in the race are true, that’s pure desperation and purely despicable.
Seriously, who is going to vote for any of these people if that’s how they treat the doddering old man they propped up?
The Democrats are trying to salvage an election cycle, not remove an unfit president from office. Do they really think voters won’t notice?
So, will Biden step aside? I don’t know and neither does anyone else. But hazarding a guess, Biden is renowned for his stubbornness and there is still no actual leverage to force him out so I still think the Democrats are stuck with Biden. We’ll see how it plays out.
But the attempt to steal the nomination is doing more damage than losing an election ever will.
Grab the popcorn and we’ll see how the movie ends.
