Because everything is interrelated. There ya go, a college edumacation in one sentence.

You know, these posts would be a lot shorter if y’all’d just figure out all the details.

Okay, okay, here goes: Realists are wrong; the international game isn’t a single board with only a few main players. In reality (pun left in because it’s funny), international relations are twenty different games being played by two hundred players all at once and with a lot of pieces missing. There are rules and we even sometimes abide by them but it’s anyone’s guess which game and which rules apply at any given moment.

So while we’re concentrating on playing checkers with China, Russia is playing dodge ball with us.

You can see why taking your eye off the ball might be a bad idea. Worse, Russia believes rules are for pansies so filling the ball with concrete and throwing it while our back is turned is perfectly fair in their game. International relations is a very interesting and exceedingly painful game. It’s definitely not for wusses.

For those of you who think NATO expansion caused the Ukrainian War, two things: First: Kaliningrad. Second: I have a lovely bit of oceanfront property in Tennessee right next to the Statue of Liberty that I’m willing to let go cheap. More to the point, Mearsheimer is an old school realist and he’s wrong, in case the dripping sarcasm wasn’t enough of a clue.

Seriously, Kaliningrad is an enclave of Russia trapped between Poland and Lithuania and has been for decades. If NATO expansion was so scary, why the heck didn’t Russia invade Lithuania before it finished joining NATO?

Because NATO expansion is a wedge issue. It’s an issue Russia hoped to use to drive a wedge into the NATO alliance, hence the name. The critical issue is NATO’s existence. Russia would like nothing more than for NATO to fall apart. That would create the opening they need for their own expansionism.

If Russia wins in Ukraine in any significant fashion it will do two things. It will weaken NATO as allies begin to wonder just what that Article Five guarantee will do for them if Russia gets any funny ideas. The other thing it will do is scare the pants of Eastern Europeans. Not the nation-states so much as the people themselves. These folks don’t want to be ruled by Russia and they are extremely likely to decide that living in sunny Spain is a better plan than living near a border with Russia.

If only a few million make that decision, it’s a pain but Europe can handle it. If 100 million decide France is a lovely place to live, Europe will collapse. The US with it’s gigantic economy couldn’t handle that; Western Europe would be doomed.

Europe may be a pain in the backside sometimes, but they are our allies. Okay, more like cousins that we’re stuck with but either way, a destabilized Europe does nasty things to the entire world. Europe would be a basket case for a decade or better and every nation everywhere that depends on selling resources and goods to Europe will flame out into decline.

We’re allied to most of them. We’re also the only nation-state that could begin to pick up the pieces. We’d get hurt, make no mistake, but most of the rest of the world would be devastated. US power is mostly soft power – our alliances and our influence. Even if we were scummy enough to walk away, the US would lose a LOT of its might and that will come back to bite. Russia and China will make danged sure of it.

Assuming that either survived the fallout and I wouldn’t bet on it . Remember what I said, everything is interrelated. China depends on the US both to buy their stuff and to protect the seaways that let resources get to China – little things like oil. Russia depends on the West in general for both markets for its resources and technological knowhow. Both can survive for a time without the US but neither can replace the US for the other so eventually, they too, feel the pain.

But China is making alliances with the Saudi’s and Iran!

Good, you’ve been paying attention. I’m very proud of you. Excuse me while I double over in laughter.

No, no, not laughing at you – I really am proud of you – but media hype aside, this is the least worrying development in months of pretty calm international news.

The Saudi’s are screwed, we just don’t know exactly how badly. In all likelihood, they are prepping for their decline. There’s only so much oil under those sands and they’ve been pumping for almost eighty years now. Without oil, the Saudi’s don’t have a lot to work with. Their population has been bought off to keep the Saud’s in power but without serious income, that can’t last. So far building the tourism industry hasn’t gone great and that buying off people thing has resulted in what Peter Zeihan refers to as a ‘criminally lazy’ population.

Iran is facing off against everyone else in the Middle East and their own people to boot. Maintaining an outward ‘us against the world’ focus is about all they have keeping the current theocratic regime in power. Yes, they get away with some sanction busting but you can’t run an economy that way. Relying on the Russians to improve their tech is beyond pathetic.

Will Russia give them a bomb? Doubtful, but the Russians will string Iran along for as long as it can. Russia doesn’t want or need a new nuclear power on its flanks, least of all Iran. Iran is not known for its commonsense. Plus, both the Taliban and Pakistan would gleefully destabilize Iran if they got the chance which is a down the road risk that Russia can live without. Now, if Russia can get Persian Gulf access, that would be different. Big if at the moment.

China brings cash to the party, for now. But China’s national debt makes the US look almost sensible by comparison. Understand, nation-states don’t go bankrupt – there’s no mechanism for that – but they can run out of money and collapse. The Saudi’s need cash. Iran needs a market. China needs oil. Should work huh?

Not really. What everyone forgets is that China does not have a blue water navy. When, not if, Iran and the Saudis start shooting at each other yet again, China cannot protect the Straight of Hormuz. The only ally of the US in the mess is Saudi Arabia – what do you think happens when they call on the US to get their oil to China?

Exactly.

So, why bother with the alliance? China gets street cred. The Saudis get cash and probably some influence in the Chinese sphere, such as it is. Iran just gets more legitimacy, kinda. It looks good on paper and sends a message to the US. As long as they don’t actually have to make the US mad, it’s fine.

Well, if the message they intended to send was ‘we’re getting desperate’ it’s all good. I suspect the Saudis are afraid the US will go on one of its isolationist bents and they are hoping to gain some inroads with China. The more concerning possibility is that the Saudis are looking at invading Iran in the future. They would need the US out of the way – we’re literally keeping them separate now – and they would absolutely need China’s military support.

They may need that anyway. The Saudis haven’t been playing nice with their neighbors and the US has voiced its concerns. If the Saudis are running out of oil and are concerned the US will get all realist on them, they may be looking for China to fill the void the US will leave if it decides that the Middle East is no longer a concern.

But the reality today is the US is still playing this game of tiddly-winks with a bowling ball. Sure, down the road this move might make sense but right now it just annoys the US and makes no real difference. A bunch of nation-states with weakened positions don’t necessarily create a strong alliance. These don’t compliment each other particularly well and China’s batting average with alliances is zero.

But, but, CHINA is big bad and scary!

Well, it’s big and very bad, but not the way you mean. Scary? Only if your a fish living on the other side of Taiwan. Don’t get me wrong, China is a royal pain in the world’s backside and it is a MAJOR foreign policy and international relations issue. But it’s not Thanos. It’s not even The Green Goblin.

Invincible? Not hardly.

China’s dreams of supplanting the US are dying. No one sane in China wants to tell Xi Xinping. China can’t build its way out of the mess it has made. It can’t bully its way out of the corner it backed itself into but that seems to be what it’s trying to do. I guess they think Biden should be easy to push around. I’d have agreed with them ten years ago but now, I’m not sure he’s awake enough to even know China is doing anything. I mean, listening to a briefing on China would put anyone to sleep but so close to naptime?

But China is teaming up with Russia!

Rock tying itself to soggy driftwood – doesn’t keep either afloat. China really, REALLY wants Russia to win. China really, REALLY doesn’t want to face full on US sanctions. Noise, they will make; ticking off the US? Er, no, not today.

Xi consolidated his control of the CCP. Risking setting off secondary sanctions is probably not on his list of things to do this decade. The problem is he’s also fairly isolated and may not be operating with great information – being a totalitarian dictator can be so vexing. It’s possible Xi orders something stupid.

But given his penchant for shooting innocent fish rather than risk confronting the US, I doubt it.

Poor fishies.