Because nation-states are resilient little devils. See y’all Wednesday!
You’re looking at me like you want details. You know I hate details!
Okay, okay, so here goes. Despite all the YouTube videos swearing that China will collapse in 38 days, China hasn’t collapsed after nearly eight months. Well, first off, if some kid in his basement can figure out when China is going belly up, so can China. The CCP is kinda attached to staying in power so once they know they need to do something fast, they do it. Drowning nation-states do have enough sense to grab the life preserver.
Mind you, if they know they only have 38 days, they are probably more worried about getting out than stopping the collapse but the principle is the same: the Reasonable Nation-State can correct course before going over the cliff.
The CCP is not reasonable but they aren’t stupid, either. They aren’t going down without a fight.
So, can China save itself and get back on shore? Sure, but they won’t. It’s a lot easier to swim without concrete blocks tied to your feet. The CCP could free itself but it won’t. It could probably survive politically by admitting to one failing. But the CCP has a list a mile long and growing. The Chinese people only have so much patience and that is already exhausted. The CCP can’t look incompetent or the whole house of cards will come down hard.
They also can’t look weak or out of control. The CCP has to at least look like its living up to all its responsibilities. Unfortunately, the curtain fell down and everyone can see that little guy in the corner.
Translation: the CCP is on borrowed time.
I’m not Nostradamus – I don’t know how long they have. The 2030 date seems reasonable but the CCP keeps having ‘hold my beer’ moments that will probably speed things up. A decade seems forever, but that is lightning fast in political terms.
Internally, the insane overreaction to C19 has done massive damage to the trust the people have in their already flaky government. The economic fallout is just a really sad bonus.
The Chinese system is best described as Byzantine with apologies to Byzantium. I’m sure there are experts who have a better grip on China’s system than I do but I don’t think even the Chinese know how the heck their system truly works. This is a feature of authoritarian systems, not a bug. But there are some ‘rules’, sorta.
Basically, it seems to be a pseudo federal system with administrative duties farmed to local governments but no true authority. The CCP makes all the decisions at the national level. Local governments carry them out whatever way they can.
Those of you thinking that’s a stupid system, you’re right. It doesn’t work for them, either. But if you have a growing economy with lots of cash you can sweep a ton of stuff under the rug. Everything looks great until someone trips over the rug.
Or the cash runs out.
The local governments fund themselves with revenue from land leases. I’ll spare us all the details but that’s the gist. Again, works fine until the housing market drops. Presently the housing market is in free fall but the CCP expects the local governments to meet all the goals set by the CCP.
Ever have a boss that had no idea what you actually do but who keeps giving you targets to meet? It’s like that only a thousand times worse. Local governments are cornered. They have lost their revenue so they are borrowing to meet the requirements. Estimates place China’s debt around 9 Trillion – with a T.
It’s like China saw the US Debt and yelled ‘hold my beer’. China’s GDP isn’t nearly high enough. This is so seriously bad that the CCP is trying to rein in local governments. Remember what happened when they tried that with the housing market? This does not end well.
In the meantime, China is trying to prove it is a military power. They have three diesel powered aircraft carriers and have succeeded in blue water exercises. Compared to the US military they are a toddler with a knife. More danger to themselves than others – at the moment – unless you are a neighbor without US protection. China does bullying well. It has a long way to go to challenge the US militarily. But the attempt takes money and resources.
Speaking of which, we have the ever popular, over blown and over budget Belt and Road Initiative. It probably was debt trap diplomacy but it is now an open question of which side of the trap China is on. They have loaned billions to countries that are not economically advantaged at the best of times. Now is not the best of times and most of those nation-states are in trouble and many are looking at default. China is being called on to forgive a lot of that debt as well as restructuring much of the rest.
Translation: China ain’t getting that money back any time soon. If they start hoovering up assets they will lose the confidence of the Third World nations that they were lending to meaning the BRI is over. But they also can’t afford to take such huge losses.
Then Russia decided to screw up everything. Europe refuses to back down on the Ukraine thing and China is learning just how hard real negotiations are. Russia has to have some tangible win. Ukraine can’t afford the loss. NATO has no intention of giving Russia any funny ideas about trying this crap ever again. If China backs Russia it will lose the markets it depends on. If China backs Ukraine they will face Russian ire which will cost them in oil, gas and water, and very possibly a war with Russia in a decade or two.
So far, China has succeeded in getting its foot all the way down to its tonsils. China looks stupid and awkward and that’s the good news. China’s entire foreign policy seems aimed at ticking off as many Western nations as possible. The US and the European Union have had about enough. They will put up with China as they slowly move their trade elsewhere. We’re not decoupling but our train ain’t in their station anymore.
China’s economy is based on making stuff for other economies to buy. Primarily, that’s by assembling the finicky bits that other countries already made. They can make semiconductors – for toasters. Taiwan, the US, Japan, South Korea and Germany make the fancy chips for smart phones and guided munitions. Can we see a potential problem with ticking off all the people you are dependent on? Well, evidently, China can’t.
China has one undisputed border, with Myanmar, I think. Maybe another with Mongolia, but its actually easier to count the number of borders it doesn’t have disputed. Yep, both Russia and India have border disputes with China. They’d dispute with Myanmar too but they need the current junta to support their pipeline to the Myanmar ports. The theory is that it will let them secure oil supplies without India or the US being able to shut them down.
I’m far from an expert but I can read a map. Let’s just say, this won’t work if either the US or India decides not to let it. India is more likely than the US but since the US isn’t on good terms with China, we’re not going to go to bat for them with India. The US could just skip the whole conflict by stopping the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. That part is very easy – we stop protecting their shipping and let the Iranians and the UAE know it.
Better get that planned nuclear aircraft carrier built, China.
But, China and Iran are all friends now, right? Not hardly. More like a first blind date. Neither has a clue and neither trusts the other. They are united in their hatred of the US and Iran wants China’s help keeping their very restive population tamed. Probably. At the very least, it will take time to build a real working relationship. Iran may be having third thoughts given how China is dealing with its only ally, Pakistan.
Pakistan needs another bailout. China has been loaning them way more money than they will ever hope to repay. Pakistan, in a surprise to no one, is tanking and looking to China for rescue. It’s not clear if China is even picking up the phone. Even if China backs Khan and gets him reinstalled, the economy is shot and China’s ‘help’ has made it much, much worse. China will likely have to pony up to keep up appearances.
Saudi Arabia isn’t much better. Sure, they want to sell lots of oil to China but SA’s halcyon oil days are clearly numbered. Without US backing, Saudi Arabia has lots and lots of very local and very willing to invade enemies. The Saudi’s are afraid the US is losing interest – because we are – and that the US will pull out on them eventually. Given their tendencies to slaughter journalists, we just might.
Saudi Arabia is uniquely incompetent – they are still basically at medieval levels of industrialization. All the modern stuff is done by foreigners, mostly the US. We’ve sold them lots of military gear and taught them to use it, but they can’t build even the most basic parts themselves. We pull out and they will quickly have a lot of very big, very expensive paperweights to try to throw at all those enemies.
China’s military stuff is mostly unproven, but the jets do fly and so far, the air craft carriers haven’t needed a tugboat to go out with them. That beats Russia. The Saudi’s are in the market for new besties with shiny boom-boom sticks that work. China fits the bill. Yay China.
Who knows, in a few decades, that might work out. Trouble is, neither the Saudis nor China have that long. It is not a good thing when most of your foreign policy depends on the US deciding to just go home.
Any one of those problems would be enough to rock any nation-state. It will take a miracle for China to survive them all. A miracle or friends, that’s what China needs.
And they are fresh out.
