No one, yet.

All right, already, here’s the long version: We’re not even through the first quarter yet. Russia scored big at the kickoff but couldn’t hold out. Ukraine came back with a massive wave, taking the lead. But Russia went back to its old playbook and has started to gain yardage. It only took Russia three months to get a first down.

If wars had nice, clean rules like football, we still wouldn’t be sure who was really doing better. It’s too early in the game and too much is going on.

Now, that doesn’t mean we can’t see the scoreboard – or notice that Russia had to mow its way through the defense just to gain a few yards. Impressive if you can do it – but not a great long game. Even if you are borrowing from Bear Bryant and have every player within a hundred miles on your sideline, the grinding takes a toll on your best players and eventually, on your team.

And yes, I’m both old and from Alabama. Deal with it.

The fact remains, Ukraine is losing yards, albeit slowly. And defending a thousand miles of battle line is a lot more wearing than defending fifty yards of the line of scrimmage. It’s also a danged site more deadly. Wars eat through men as well as machines and ammunition. Football just eats through time, energy and fan patience.

Russia has more stuff. It’s not all great stuff but if it blows up where you need it to, it’s just fine. Ukraine has more experience, a much better backer and are perfectly comfortable rewriting the playbook in the middle of the game.

Now, I’m a military expert only in someone else’s delusions. My bailiwick is politics, especially political systems. There are aspects of both that take expertise to analyze and I bow the the military experts of all stripes in matters strictly military. I use their expertise to guide my own understanding because there is no true separation; at the end of the day, politics informs military and military informs politics. It’s easier to get the chocolate out of chocolate milk than to separate military from politics.

Now that I’ve made all the military guys mad, let’s see what politics tell us about this war.

Quit guessing the timeframe. It takes as long as it takes for the leadership to decide that the cost is too high. That decision can be made for them in the form of a coup or it can be made rationally. It’ll probably be made by outside forces or at least informed by them.

But the time frame can inform us to an extent. Assuming that the West continues to support Ukraine and that Ukraine continues to fight, Russia isn’t on the best footing. Sanctions are just economic sieges: they take time to bite, but they can and do bite and bite hard. A long game isn’t in Russia’s best political or economic interest: so why continue?

Because Russia is anticipating an injury on the NATO team. Russia’s bet is that it can hold out throwing old Soviet stuff at Ukraine longer than NATO nations, especially Germany, can withstand the loss of Russian gas and oil. The problem with this is that NATO has the same playbook and it is busily padding the heck out of its most vulnerable players.

So, what happens if NATO fails to pad enough and winter comes? A lot of hustling to keep economies afloat and people warm; and likely an even greater resolve to wean off Russian anything. Russia is that jerk neighbor that announces he’s gonna chop down your tree and let’s everyone know exactly when and is then surprised as heck that the cops are already there.

In flailing around trying to scare other nation-states into submission, Russia has stirred up a hornet’s nest. It has also announced loud and clear than it cannot be trusted. Welcome to Cold War, 2.0. It remains to be seen, but it’s looking like Vista, not XP.

Mind you, this is gonna hurt NATO, including the US, economically – for about two years, of which five months have already passed. That’s a feature, not a bug. If we ever get to the point that warfare of any sort only hurts the other guy, we’re going to be dangerously close to truly annhilating the planet. Economic sanctions SHOULD hurt us to an extent; otherwise we’ll impose them anytime we’re mildly annoyed.

But the honest truth, as far as I can gather, is the recession at home is mostly self inflicted and has nothing significant to do with the war. In Europe, the transition to other energy sources is gonna be REALLY painful both economically and politically. Europeans aren’t stupid; they are quickly realizing that their dependence on Russia and the pain it is about to cause, comes from the bill of goods they were sold about green energy and saving the planet.

Russia is hoping that will help destroy NATO. Ukraine is praying it doesn’t make Europe turn its back on them. Both are wrong. NATO is back big time; Europe is no longer under any delusions about trusting Russia. Europeans don’t want a recession but they want a Russian advance a whole lot less. And most are smart enough to realize that had they listened to Eastern Europe over the last couple decades a little better, they wouldn’t be in this mess now.

The clock is wonky so we don’t know when the first quarter will end exactly, although it appears to be winding down now. Just in time for the second quarter and Ukraine’s attempt to win the Heisman with 12 HIMARS.

If you want to run to the concession stand, hustle – this game is running on its own time and is far from over.