So many people are convinced that even if the election audits going on in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia show that there was fraud or impropriety that nothing will happen. I’m extremely dubious of that idea. Here’s why:

First off, no, it won’t overturn certified elections – that horse is already out of the gate and heading for the barn. The main reason boils down to the idea that if we don’t have a firm cutoff, lawsuits and legal actions will drag out elections until time for the next one. At the very least, it will make life miserable for the whole country as we wait for months or years to find out who won. We can argue about exactly when those cutoffs should be, but the theory is pretty sound.

Well, if the audits can’t overturn elections, what can they do? They can shine a spotlight on problems in the process – and more importantly on bad actors.

And you’re already thinking, ‘huh, those politicians never get caught. No one ever goes to jail or anything.’ I understand the feeling but it’s not actually true. But let’s assume that it does work out that way, would the audits still have an effect?

You betcha. Bob the Senator may skate – but Jane the County Election Official in Podunk, USA? Oh no, little missy is looking at serious consequences – because if there are enough legislators mad enough to pursue an audit, there are more than enough to pressure the Attorney General into taking action – assuming he’s not already champing at the bit. In a lot of so-called red states, the AG is likely keenly interested in taking out the electoral trash – and there will be Democrats in purple states following suit.

It’s not a fair system – we should punish all the perpetrators. BUT here’s the thing – Jane WON’T be working on the 2022 election – and neither will a number of her cohorts in counties across the nation. Of those corrupt officials who do get to stay in office, they aren’t going to want to risk getting caught themselves and will likely be very reserved in how they deal with the 2022 elections. That translates to fairer elections even under otherwise corrupt officials.

But they didn’t get caught, right? Some won’t, that’s true – but those who do are going to get hung out to dry by their own party – maybe even by the representatives they helped cheat into office. No public official is going to risk being tainted by standing up for corrupt electors (sadly, this is true whether they are corrupt or not – we really need to fix a lot about our system) – and no party, red or blue, is going to own up to widespread cheating or even localized cheating. The powerful politicians and party elites are going to save their own political backsides and the little guys who did the dirty work get left holding the bag. And every local official will see it happen in living color.

Which usually doesn’t result in people willing to commit crimes for other people they’ve already seen let others take the blame for them. Yeah – no, this is not how people work. The chances of getting the local cooperation needed to cheat in an election go WAY down once a few county officials are serving time.

But there’s more! Audits that show impropriety give political push to making reforms that make cheating more difficult. A lot of those reforms are already passing at the state level – but what about the Federal? We wait for 2024?

Maybe not – because the biggest sting is going to come in 2022. Frankly, the Democrats haven’t the necessary numbers or knowhow to get their bigger agenda items through in the next seventeen months. And the Texas Democrats just made getting ANYTHING through the Senate impossible for the Democrats – because if not showing up for the quorum is fair game for Democrats, it’s also fair game for Republicans. (Mind you, it’s a moronic policy either way, but we’re going to see it happen a few more times until one party or the other has enough of a majority to put a stop to it.) McConnell has already made the threat – and the Democrats are now paper tigers of their own design.

So, the Democrats aren’t looking good now for 2022 – wait until they are six months from the general election with nothing achieved and a slew of lawsuits and allegations chasing them from the 2024 election. Yeah, this has a lot of promise to become a total train wreck for the Democrats. If the audits show credible corruption, the Republicans will almost certainly have a strong majority come 2023. Quiet possibly enough to override a veto – which means Federal election reform will be coming sooner than you think.

Then the fun really starts – remember all those investigations the Democrats wanted but couldn’t get? Well, with both houses of Congress, the Republicans will be getting all the special prosecutors and investigations they could every want – all aimed at the Democrats.

Aww, come on now – everyone knows it’s a duopoly – the Republicans will make noise, sure, but real investigations? Yeah, very real – because the Republicans are driving those audits, remember? The up and comers already know that the future for their party is populist. The party as a whole is also increasingly aware that they are stuck between a rock – the status quo they love so much – and a very hard place – the party base that has had quite enough nonsense and is more than willing to do a LOT of house cleaning. They can take it out on the Democrats or have their base take it out on them – no bonus points for guessing which one they are likely to pick.

Senator Bob may skate – allegations of corruption even with evidence from an audit aren’t a conviction. But in all likelihood, he’s not going to come out unscathed.

IF – and it’s only a supposition since we haven’t proven it yet – if the 2020 election was indeed rigged enough to have affected the outcome, that chicanery is likely going to cost the Democrat Party dearly – perhaps for decades to come. In the short term, the party will feel the pain – whether it can survive it only time will tell.