Any other time I would still be telling you it’s much too early to call the general election. Any other time, a centrist nation doesn’t take a lot to shove things in a different direction so six months out is an eternity.
Not this time.
A war, C19 redux, and Republican division – ordinarily, any one of these would be enough to buy the Democrats support. The war especially should normally benefit the party in power. But none of that is happening.
The polls are probably wrong – they are probably over estimating the support Democrats enjoy (well, have anyway). I say that because there has been no significant bump in any of them during any of the above events – if there were any real support we’d expect to see the rise in numbers. The numbers themselves are probably nonsense but the lack of movement is telling.
Mostly, it’s telling us that the Democrats are in deep, deep you-know-what.
There are other indicators as well – surging Republican turnout, surging support for Republicans, a literal exodus of Democrat voters – it ain’t looking good. Cumulatively, they spell a probable party collapse come November.
But for the sake of argument, let’s assume the democrats survive. That they only lose 80 seats in the House (I cannot believe I just typed that sentence without any trace of sarcasm) and the party lives to fight another day. What do the Republicans do with a clear, uncontested majority for the next two years?
Well, I can tell you what they’d better not do – waste it. This kind of massive shift happens when people are demanding change. If that change is not immediately forthcoming the Republican party will be next on the chopping block. Don’t think it can’t happen – it has twice before in American history – two parties can go down at almost the same time.
No holding back so you have an issue to run on next cycle – that will not work with an electorate this volatile. No playing stupid games that look like you’re doing something when you’re not (looking at you, Durham). No status quo – the American people just voted against that.
This is the hard part – polls really suck at telling politicians what people want. Right now, they aren’t telling politicians what they need to know, either. But if the Republicans don’t deliver, they die as a party.
So start hiring staffers to read all those emails, comments and especially letters. Hire IT to get the bot crap out of your inbox as much as humanly possible. Go to town halls and listen, not just ramble. Don’t use Twitter – it’s not even remotely representative either of your base or the population at large. You need to know what YOUR constituents want and make it happen. No war chest will save you, no matter how deep, if you fail to do that.
You already know the big stuff, Republicans – now DO IT.
