What a race! Here they come, around the curve, heading for home! It’s too close to call! Turbo Trump seems to have his second wind but Hyped-Up Harris is pulling out all the stops! They’re neck and neck coming down the stretch. It’s going to be a photo finish!
Eh, probably not. As exciting as having a close race makes things, the race is being called by a guy who left his glasses at home. Three weeks out there’s a ton of dust in the air and it’s hard to even guess what indicators are reliable.
Polls aren’t. The polls show a dead heat in the popular vote but a decided advantage to Trump in the Electoral College. Real Clear Politics is hysterically sad with more states than last week dumped into ‘toss up’. Yeah, no. States don’t switch around that fast. Also, I saw the map this morning where they had Trump at 307. I like RCP as an aggregator because I like their charting. They put all the important stuff on the main chart and I appreciate that. But suddenly having 104 Electors as toss ups?
Cheat much, RCP? Yeah, I should have printed the one I saw earlier but a quickie look see in the archive shows that there weren’t so many toss ups last week.
But that’s not unusual this close to an election. The micropolls – the things RCP reports with the tiny sample sizes – often start being more propaganda than real polling. They’re easy to manipulate and pollsters aren’t exactly objective analysts, sometime not even when they want to be.
The popular vote no longer matters. All that matters now is winning enough electors to win the presidency. Trump is taking some flak for his blue state rallies as observers assume he’s after the popular vote to seal his legitimacy. Maybe. Likely part of it, but the polling going into the election has been wrong every time Trump has run previously. Trump may – this is my speculation – be hoping to flip a blue state.
Given his ability to attract a crowd, he might have a chance. Rally size matters as rallygoers reflect both their own intentions and those of the ten to one hundred fold more folks that couldn’t be there. Sure, it also gives us a gauge on enthusiasm but Trump has never had a turnout problem.
But this close to the election, it gets muddier. Some folks will come out just to be able to say they went to a rally for a winning candidate – assuming they think the candidate is going to win. Still, if Trump actually fills Madison Square Garden, Harris is in real danger of losing New York.
Which is why the Democrats are going into conniptions, comparing Trump at Madison Square Garden to some 1939 rally there that I am not going to dignify with a direct mention. Your computer works just as well as mine, look it up if you’re curious as to how insane the Democrats have become.
What about small donors? Normally, we’d expect that to be mostly tapped out. Small donors don’t usually increase their donations. At least not in significant enough numbers to give an indication. This election, both candidates are courting the small donors so it’s hard to say how good of an indicator small donors are right now. I’d say they still tell us something and it favors Trump but that’s more guess than analysis.
Yard signs have told us about all they can. If they start turning up in unexpected places that would be a good indicator but I’m not going to drive around to find out. My county wouldn’t tell us much anyway. There aren’t any Harris signs that I’ve seen anywhere. Now, if my neighbor puts one out, that’d be something. This area and my neighbor are deep red.
Also, I should probably call and make sure my neighbor took her medicine if I see a Harris sign in her yard!
So, what do we have? The weird polling. Oh, not the polls themselves, but looking at how ancient some of them are and there are registered voter polls creeping back in. Old polls tell us what happened in September, not what is happening now. Registered voters are completely useless this late. Virtually no states are still registering and if they aren’t identifying as likely voters this late, they are probably not going to vote.
So why are pollsters doing that stuff? Why is RCP suddenly so sure everything is in toss up territory?
Simple, they don’t want to admit that Harris is losing. Showing her trailing in the polls will likely suppress Democrat turnout. Also, a few undecideds may decide to vote Harris if they believe she’s holding her own.
People do like to vote for a winner. And every pollster and media outlet knows it.
Trump’s packed rallies compared to Harris’ empty halls looks like Trump is ahead. Even if rallies weren’t an indicator – and they are – people undecided this late aren’t looking at who to vote for, but who they can tolerate the best. If they aren’t at least a little excited, many will stay home. Assuming a legitimately tied race, that would destroy Harris’ chances.
This year’s October Surprise seems to be just how poor of a candidate Harris really is. Pretty sure that wasn’t the surprise the Democrats were hoping for.
There’s a lot of dust in the air and it’s hard to see, but no one cheats when they know they will win. Putting in Obama and Clinton as pinch hitters at the bottom of the ninth is just more evidence that the Democrats are afraid they are losing.
For once, I think they are right.
