From what I’m hearing, all the polls are pointing toward a Republican sweep. More importantly in my opinion, there are no obvious indicators that point elsewhere. My personal favorite is small donations. Most small donations go to candidates that person actually supports and will go out and vote to elect. There’s no reason to ‘lie’ with a small donation. You aren’t really hedging your bet by making small donations to every candidate. Even if you can afford it, few people would bother. That’s what makes small donations a good indicator.

Let’s just say, small donations aren’t going to Democrats. Democrats get big donations from corporations and celebrities. That’s great if they use that money wisely but those donors either can’t vote (no matter what the courts act like, corporations ain’t people) or can only vote once. In most cases, such large donors are in already heavily favored districts so while those votes count they don’t count in contested districts where they might help change the outcome.

Small donors come from all over the country and frequently are in contested or at least possibly contested districts. Their votes not only count but are more likely to change outcomes. But mostly, they COUNT in huge numbers.

Remember, most people never donate to a campaign. The one guy that feels so strongly that he gives his five bucks probably has ten friends who feel just as strongly but don’t get around to donating. He is also probably one of a hundred who care about the issue or candidate but only he donates. But most of them vote. So his one donation may represent fifty to one hundred voters who will vote similarly. This makes small donations a great indicator.

The downside is that both parties scoop up a lot of these donations. That doesn’t tell us as much. It certainly tells us that the folks are likely to vote for that party but not really why – what issue is driving them to donate? Issue and candidate donations give us more information but it can be over stated.

Translation: there are no perfect indicators. Still, small donations are a really good indicator of upcoming voter behavior hence my preference for them as an indicator.

Polls seem to become more accurate as they get closer to an election. It’s partially true but it’s also partially because most people don’t even think about an election until a few weeks or days before they vote. Some flip reply to a pollster six months ago may have nothing to do with how that person finally decides to vote. There’s more to a voter’s decision than ‘I don’t like Candidate X’. They may really dislike Candidate X but have a change of heart about Candidate Y. Candidate Y annoys them somehow and despite their previous poll answers, they vote for Candidate X.

And the more volatile the country, the more likely this is to happen. Nearly four years of turmoil now have taken a toll. A lot of people just want off the rollercoaster and they will vote for whoever can put on the brake.

In more current terms, Trump’s mean tweets don’t seem so important anymore to most voters. Despite their best finger pointing and the media choir trumpeting how bad the Republicans are, people are becoming disillusioned with the Democrats. We’re about to see the full court press version of that in twelve days.

Republicans should wipe those grins off right now. This is not a vote to return to business as usual – it’s a vote for substantial change. The Republicans had better be ready to step up to the plate come January because their party may not survive until 2024 if they don’t. Republicans historically suck at this. No one wants healing and unity; this country wants justice and sanity. That means doing something real, Republicans and doing it ASAP.

We can worry about our course and heading once we bail out the ship and get it upright again. We’re not sinking but we do have a nasty list to the left. That has to be corrected before we really do start sinking. That’s the job we’re about to give to the Republicans.

Make no mistake, what is happening to the Democrats can and will happen to the Republicans is very short order. System shifts, like the one I believe we’re in, have a habit of taking down both parties. The midterms aren’t a referendum on the Democrats. They are a referendum on the last twenty years of governance. People don’t care what got us here, they just want it fixed. NOW.

So, enjoy the cake and cookies on November 8, Republicans. But show up ready to really work on November 9.

The clock is ticking.