Being a good little political scientist, I will start by defining my terms.

Conspiracy Theory: Any supposition, hypothesis, theory or other firm conviction that is maintained despite any and all evidence or logic that might lead to a contrary conclusion.

The astute among you will have noticed that by this definition, virtually anything can be a conspiracy theory. The really observant will have realized that the definition doesn’t care if the conviction is correct or not. It’s the irrational level of clinging to the idea that makes it a conspiracy theory.

You, my dear reader, hold conspiracy theories. We all do.

Some are a necessary part of life. I couldn’t care less if the planet is a dumpy spheroid, as I believe, a perfect sphere or a floating Frisbee shape. Literally, I do NOT care. I only care that the guys navigating planes and ships believe in some form of geospherical shape because they will get people killed trying to navigate based on what direction the elephants holding up the planet are pointing.

If you want to waste your time and energy arguing about the shape of the planet, go for it. I got other fish to fry. They may not be more important or better fish, but they are mine. You fry yours.

In other words, spending your life trying to prove logically or empirically the truth of every single thing you were taught is a massive and futile waste of time. You can’t do it and you don’t need to do it which is why only idiots try to do it.

Don’t worry, they’ll figure it out and find their own fish eventually.

That doesn’t mean that the argument over the shape of the planet isn’t important to somebody besides navigators and GPS programmers or that it shouldn’t be. It does mean that not everything needs to be important to everyone at the same time. Who knows, someday, some guy who spent countless hours on the Internet trying to prove the planet is whatever shape may just come up with a proof that settles not only that question but other related ones.

What would be a complete waste of time for me may bear fruit for someone else. Pick your own fish and then fry those suckers!

It’s not the ‘waste of time’ that makes ‘conspiracy theories’ dangerous. It’s the irrational adherence.

I’m going to freak some of you out. It is not irrational to conclude that the Earth is flat. Nope, not at all – IF your conclusion is based on sound logic and available facts.

What your textbook said is not a ‘fact’ when it is the conclusion being tested. Assuming it is fact when making the proof is actually fallacious logic. Yes, really. It’s called ‘assuming the conclusion’.

So, no, pulling out your first grade science book doesn’t prove anything. It has no effect at all.

If Bob knows that he cannot sense the supposed motion of the Earth he can use that fact as part of his proof. He can then conclude that there may be a problem with the claims of fantastic momentum (which is what you get hurtling around at better than 1000 mph). He can then rationally conclude that the Earth being flat is a better explanation for his observation.

That is perfectly sound logic.

Before you start yelling at your computer, I already stated that I think the planet is a dumpy spheroid. So, Bob’s logic is sound but I think his conclusion is false.

Yeah, that’s the dirty little secret of good logic: Logic doesn’t assure a correct conclusion. Good logic just gives you a much better shot at reaching a correct conclusion.

Bob’s conclusion is based on a solitary fact. But the Earth’s curvature is observable and not just at the beach. Any long straight stretch of water will do. The water provides a level. Sighting points leveled from the water should all line up perfectly – but they don’t. They will be off by an inch or more, depending on how exactly the experiment is set up.

The curvature of the planet is the best explanation.

When we do this experiment and Bob sights the line for himself we should expect Bob to reconsider his position. It’s not irrational for Bob to stop and think about it to see if there is another solution. But once he cannot come to a rational explanation that addresses the experiment, he is irrational for continuing to believe that the Earth must be flat.

Notice, Bob isn’t irrational for not immediately accepting that the Earth is round. He’s not even irrational if he never accepts that explanation. He’s only irrational if he clings to the explanation that has been disproven.

If Bob wants to believe in a flat Earth, let him. I guarantee you personally are clinging to at least one irrational belief. All humans do that. Yours may be the conviction that grilled hot dogs are dangerous to your health. It’s not irrational because others don’t believe it nor is it irrational because ‘studies’ disproved it. It’s only irrational when you chose to believe with utter disregard for the evidence.

It also doesn’t matter. Hot dogs are good boiled, too. Heck, you can bake ’em if you prefer. More tasty grill marks for the rest of us and you get to sleep soundly. Pick the fish worth frying.

The problem occurs when we have irrational beliefs about things that DO matter.

Real conspiracies are rare. Abortive ones are a dime a dozen, but real, actual, functioning conspiracies are about as common as hen’s teeth.

For you city folks, chickens don’t have teeth. Really, you can see for yourself. Beak, no teeth. They do have a gizzard. Imagine filling your tummy with rocks, swallowing everything whole and using your stomach muscles to grind up your food on the rocks.

Glad you’re not a chicken now, huh?

Using your stomach as a gizzard would probably be easier than forming a true conspiracy. Come on, Ladies! How long do ‘secrets’ survive? Ten minutes if you’re lucky. We all went through elementary school and know exactly how easy it is to figure out who you can, and who you cannot, trust with your secrets.

I’ll try the gizzard thing over having to do that again!

Conspiracies need more than two people to actually do anything 99.99% of the time. So to get this conspiracy off the ground, you have to find people with the connections or skills you need and figure out if you can trust them. One mistake and your conspiracy is being discussed at every restaurant in town.

Adding duress – threatening people – only helps so much and only if you have the means to actually carry out your threats. Otherwise, you’ll be hearing about your conspiracy on the Six O’clock Report.

Every person comes with their own reasons. You may think you have them convinced but cash has a way of swaying allegiances.

It’s easier to just do this openly than in a conspiracy. Unless you are a criminal, of course. But if it ain’t illegal, start a foundation. Some other True Believers will happen along and you’re off to the races.

Like I said, true conspiracies are rare.

But the belief in the existence of political conspiracies is rampant.

Here’s the thing. A lot of the things that make people think ‘conspiracy’ are simple opportunism. Politicians, the political class and a host of others may not be even interested in joining some grand and likely to get them in trouble conspiracy but they are perfectly willing to jump on any passing gravy train.

Opportunists are much easier to come by than conspirators and often much easier to motivate, too.

That doesn’t mean there are no bad actors – there are plenty. We all come Size Human after all. But Evil Genius level, grand conspiracy, master villains? Mostly wannabes and few that ever even attain Expert level in Villainy. Sorry, but there aren’t any Dr. No’s running around loose out there.

But, but look at all the connections!

Would opportunism look any different? Opportunists have connections just as conspirators do. Opportunists have greater options for getting out of whatever mess blows up in their faces. There are a lot more benefits to opportunism than conspiratorial enterprises.

Basically, assume opportunism before conspiracy. Conspiracies do exist but 99% of what are assumed to be conspiracies are groups of activists swarmed by opportunists. Mistaking one for the other means you will waste time, effort and resources combatting the wrong thing the wrong way.

Which is one of the greatest dangers of conspiracy theories. Trying to defeat the conspiracy when it’s just a bunch of loosely connected groups pursuing somewhat similar goals will make you waste a ton of time trying to prove something that wasn’t true to begin with and going after the small fry and nominally involved rather than those who actually are bad actors.

The other big danger is the one I just hinted at – attacking the innocent or even allies. This is part of what you’re seeing in the extreme leftist wing of the Democrats. If it isn’t exactly like them it must be an enemy! Cancel it! Worse, what exactly defines this group? Depends, is it Tuesday and are we playing Fizzbin? They are so volatile that the rules change constantly. Not only can you not keep up, neither can they.

Yeah, it’s fun to snicker at the blue haired crazies. When they are attacking everyone in sight, they are hard to feel sorry for and easy to condemn.

But they aren’t unique. Heck, they aren’t particularly special. I mean, sure, it’s unusual for a major party to let the crazies take over like that but it’s hardly the first time. America often sorts things out over beer and barfights. This may not be our best plan, just sayin’.

Translation: be careful. The monster you fight today may turn out to be you tomorrow.

Populism is not up for its first rodeo. This is number three, I think. Maybe five, depending on what you count. The great thing about populism is that it is about the People. The problem with populism is those same people can be their own worst enemies.

Especially as populists start coming into power. That’s when they find out that no, not everyone was on the same page. Good grief! Why would you expect millions of people to all agree on absolutely every point? They can’t! Finding out as you gain power is a powder keg.

Figure out the main things – the central values – and use those and those only as litmus tests.

Oh, yes, groups and movements need litmus tests. It’s when no one knows what the rules are that the tests become useless.

I’m a strong conservative. I’m a believer in the the idea behind populism. I’ve also been pro-gun control since well before most of your parents were born.

But, but, conservatives are gun nuts!

Well, if you count the Mark VI 16 inch, .45 caliber guns on South Dakota class battleships, I suppose I am, too. But as a kid, I got shot at by one too many jackasses out in the woods to believe that all gun owners are responsible.

What defines modern conservatism? Is it issues or values? If the former, it’s doomed. That’s what is killing the Democrat Party now. If it is values, then we have a shot. We can agree on the important stuff and squabble about the rest when we have the time.

Which is not now.

Look, the Republican Party is being reformed right now. What it means to be a Republican will be decided over the next few years. Until that happens, there are no RINOS. The party that was is gone so what it will be going forward is yet to be determined.

The Democrat Party is near collapse and frankly, they haven’t had a coherent platform in a decade. Kinda hard to have a litmus test when you have no idea what the standard is. Nope, no DINOS either.

The choice is what battle to pick. Are we going to fight over the weeds or the crops? The unimportant or the important?

Fighting over the little stuff before you have the power to affect the big stuff is a great way to ensure you never have that power. Most political movements end by shooting themselves in the foot.

Is ‘America First’ about isolationism, or saving this country from losing her way? If it’s about saving this country, count me in. If it’s about playing ostrich, I’ll pass. Is populism about majority rule or the tyranny of the majority? I’m all in for the first but I’ll fight you on the second.

Globalism isn’t a world conspiracy. It’s real enough but it doesn’t star a master villain. It’s just the idea that if the world’s nations can safely trade with each other, the US doesn’t have to rescue everyone from yet another world war.

The global government thing is a real proposal and it’s also really stupid. It was making headway a few years ago but Russia kinda slaughtered the poor thing. For now. Bad ideas do have a way of coming back.

No, it’s not stupid to be concerned about those things or to oppose them. It is irrational when you do so despite the evidence to the contrary. That’s what makes them conspiracy theories.

Populism has a long history of getting close to power and promptly shooting itself in both feet. How about we skip that one this time?

Figure out the important stuff, like valuing democratic republicanism, liberty, the rule of law, Freedom of Religion, Freedom of Speech and the rest of the values that made America great and fight for those. Build a party and a movement on the very best foundation you can.

We can squabble on the little stuff later. Plenty of time to hash out all the details after we’ve won.

Like Larry Elder says, “We’ve got a country to save!”