The single dumbest thing I can think of to do today is to guess what Ukraine’s military leaders have up their collective sleeves. Frankly, the options seem to me to be a lot wider open than what I’m hearing from military and political commentators.
That’s not a dig at either the military experts or the political commentators, of which I’m one. The reality is that you can only analyze so much when half the cards are still in the deck.
My take is a bit different. I’m well aware that the Ukrainians have weather and equipment issues. But they started this conflict with both so I don’t see a good reason that they should be more decisively negative this time around. I’m also aware that the US and other military advisors have urged Ukraine to abandon Bakhmut as strategically unimportant and not worth the price to hold it. But they do gain in terms of morale and attrition, so it might be worth more than the experts not on the ground realize.
Conversely, Ukraine could be making a disastrous mistake by not getting on with the offensive and abandoning Bakhmut. Arm chair quarterbacking isn’t particularly better at anticipating moves. Truth is, it could be either one.
So what? Let’s assume the absolute worst, that Ukraine suffers a major battlefield reversal. Well, that’s gonna sting and there are going to be a lot of folks demanding an end to Ukrainian support. But they are going to pretty much just be the same voices already saying that only louder. Ukraine has acquitted itself incredibly well on the battlefield against a much better equipped foe and they have won pretty big victories so dropping them at the first upset is like firing the coach midgame.
More to the point the optics for the leadership that has supported Ukraine thus far would be beyond bad if they withdrew support that easily. Forgetting Biden since his 2024 primary chances are dubious (FYI that fact itself is massive in American politics) and Macron because he’s still trying to get his foot out of his mouth, there are no leaders in Europe besides Orban that can just walk away without endangering themselves politically, It’ll take more than one setback for that.
The underlying politics haven’t changed. Eastern Europe is still skittish as a colt. NATO pulling out on Ukraine will weaken it fundamentally. Europe will be at odds with itself over the security in the East for decades. Macron’s European Federation will be DOA as will any hope of further uniting Europe for at least a generation, maybe two.
Germany is between rock and hard place. It needs this war over and Russian gas flowing again for at least a few years but it also needs to maintain its standing as a respected European nation. Germany isn’t a forward leader but it is foundational in European politics and losing that will mess them up a lot more than just losing the Russian gas. Pulling out on Ukraine now could threaten Germany’s own stability. Every Eastern European, including East Germany’s, are watching closely to see if they will be abandoned by the West again. If East Germans begin doubting their West German brethren, this does not end well.
Macron’s idiot comments have met with condemnation for a reason. Europe is all in, NATO or no NATO. For the record, Macron wasn’t totally wrong but boy, talk about lacking any sense of timing. Macron was probably positioning himself as the European leader which was a good idea given the current total lack of forward leadership and he completely misread the situation with the US. Europe doesn’t want to be a US vassal and the US doesn’t want a vassal but Europe and the US have very strongly aligned interests with both China and Russia.
Seriously, I don’t have a clue how Macron got elected in the first place. He’s so easily mislead that both Russia and China have played him in the last year. The whole ‘America is an empire’ nonsense is China’s propaganda. China’s jealousy of the US is palpable. They assume every other nation is just as jealous of and scared of the US hence trying to drive a wedge in the US/Europe alliance by stirring up European fears of American power.
Trouble is, Europe keeps doing things the US hates. I suspect they do some of that stuff just to assure themselves we aren’t going to go nuts on them. Well, if we were hegemonic and imperial, Europe would be towing a much tighter line and they know it. China’s attempts don’t fall on deaf ears but they do get a lot of laughs.
Meanwhile, China wants to prove itself diplomatically. Its plan for an end to the Russian Invasion was hysterical and China should consider a career in stand up comedy. I especially liked the little touch of Xi not meeting with Zelensky. Negotiating peace without talking to one of the combatants is a novel and stupid approach.
To be fair, the Chinese got the Iranians and the Saudis to sign an agreement. The House of Saud is in a house almost literally built on sand. A massive drop in oil prices will do very, very bad things if they are half as vulnerable as I suspect. OPEC will not want lower prices but they will need all the help they can get if Russia collapses and more so if it Balkanizes. The Saudis need Iran to not flood even more oil on the market so an agreement that keeps Iran from cutting a deal with an increasingly desperate Biden is a no brainer. If Russia survives, they will be back at each other’s throats before you can say ‘boo’.
Iran needs everything. They’ll take any lifeline they can get. China can have the credit; Iran wants cash.
You may have noticed that I’m not particularly impressed with China’s diplomatic acumen. It got worse this weekend when the Chinese ambassador to France decided to have a ‘hold my beer’ moment. Chinese ambassadors all over Europe have been summoned to explain just what the heck he meant by questioning the sovereignty of all the former Warsaw Pact nations. Beyond moronic but amusing. Pass the popcorn.
What that all adds up to is that NATO will not be pulling the rug out from under Ukraine. Heck, the ROI (return on investment) alone should keep NATO in the market. The US is making a killing as it is but even if it weren’t, we’ve all spent too much to pull out arbitrarily. No, it’s in the US and NATO’s best interests to see this all the way through.
I wonder if Ukraine hasn’t realized that by now. Possibly, or they are just so sensitive to the possibility of losing that aid that they aren’t taking any chances with the upcoming offensive. Their behavior so far is consistent with both possibilities.
The former is the most interesting. If Ukraine feels it has some breathing room it may be using that to attrite Russian forces while they can. Russia has been backing off in the intensity of their attacks over the last several months. That could be just their obsession with taking Bakhmut but it could also indicate a loss in capability. Pulling out museum pieces and buying munitions from North Korea are not signs of strength. Russia does love itself some artillery but those attacks are slowing as well. Running out of shells or worse, barrels, might explain that slowdown.
But I don’t have a crystal ball anymore than my much better qualified counterparts do. Russia could just be playing a good ol’ fashioned game of possum for all we know. Dang, I knew I should have taken ‘omniscience’ as a skill.
Still, letting the Russians spend themselves on a pointless objective isn’t a bad tactic. If attrition is working for Ukraine more than against it, letting the Russians half kill themselves for as long as possible sets Ukraine up for a much easier time when they do counterstrike.
I suppose they could just let the Russians wear themselves out – it worked for the
Afghans – but Ukraine isn’t keen to keep this war going just to watch Russia make more of a fool of itself. As a result, I expect the counteroffensive is indeed forthcoming. I just very much doubt it will come where or when anyone rational would expect it.
If they counterattack Crimea, it’d be hysterical. Insane, stupid and dang near impossible, but funny as all get out. Gotta admit, no one would expect that. But as the world of international relations becomes more and more Pythonesque, maybe we should.
After all, no one expects the Spanish Inquisition!
