Yeah, yeah, I know. I was the one forecasting a Democrat Party collapse and then there wasn’t really a red wave. Actually, I still think the Democrat Party will collapse but the Republicans may beat them to it. Party system shifts happen that way.
Political parties, like nation-states, can be stubbornly resilient little buggers. Government and politics often are glacial in their timeframes – unless they are doing something that you don’t like. They seem to manage to speed up faster if they are going to tick people off. Still, one really weird election doesn’t save the Democrats nor is it time to throw in the towel for 2024.
Not that I wasn’t wrong about the turnover. Clearly, I was. But that is a discussion for another day. For now, suffice it that I’m not infallible but not ready to take up reading tea leaves, either. On to Foreign Policy Analysis!
China and Russia seem to be in a race for the bottom. Russia is winning but China is putting up a heck of a fight. Sad, seeing as winning and losing are identical – they win by losing faster. Like people, nation-states can get really really stuck on really really stupid things and that seems to be what is happening here.
Still, nation-states don’t go down like characters in a video game. It’s rarely a fast process and seldom gets to the inevitable stage. China and Russia both could pull back from the brink. It seems unlikely, but it’s always a possibility.
For now. let’s look at the other side of this equation. What happens if both China and Russia suffer full governmental collapses? What does the world look like after that?
We’re just going to assume most obvious outcomes for this little mind excursion. Reality will be messy – seems to be the only size Reality comes in. Reality also refuses to show up when expected – I’m still a little miffed with Reality on that one over the midterms. Anyone telling you they know when Russia will collapse or how many days until China collapses is just talking through their hat.
I don’t know when and I can’t guarantee it even will happen, but given the circumstances we know about now, I am expecting both to suffer some form of collapse sooner rather than later. So, what happens next?
No, not nuclear conflagration. You need to quit staying up all night playing video games or worse, watching Legacy Media. Nuclear war gets a nation-state nothing but more trouble than it can handle. Great, the other nation-state backed down but now there are a hundred and ninety plus lined up to give you grief over it. And that’s the best ending your little nuclear happy nation-state can hope for because the reality is you are not only going to PO the entire planet but you’re not going to win the stupid war you were already fighting. Nuclear weapons are great for deterrence and totally stink for actual combat.
This is why we skip the whole thing.
But nuclear weapons are going to be a royal pain in the backside for the US for a decade or so – again. We spent the Nineties trying to keep old Soviet nukes out of new crazy terrorist hands. The reason is simple – those idiots will use them. Being unallied to a nation-state means the US doesn’t have a capital to target if you set off a nuke in Wisconsin. But the risk was much higher for Israel, the favorite whipping boy of the Middle East and astronomical for India because not only do their neighbors not like them, they share big, difficult to control borders.
The danger gets even greater with terrorists that don’t like Pakistan either. India would certainly blame Pakistan if a nuke went off which would set off an entire exchange. It wouldn’t be as bad as the USA v USSR but no one in the area would care about the distinction. This kind of craziness was what the US was trying to prevent as it tracked down, stole, bought, bribed and negotiated for all those missing weapons. Guess what will be on steroids if Russia collapses?
The Middle East is nowhere near as volatile as it was then but it ain’t a walk in the park, either. Iran would still like to rule the Middle East, thankyouverymuch, and isn’t particular about not nuking their neighbors, especially the Saudis. While the US has half a mind to let them, it’s still really stupid to let big kids play with really big bombs, so no.
Half of Asia is ready to nuke China if they thought they could get away with it. Terrorism isn’t confined to the Middle East and while not very likely, there are a few man made islands that more than a few South China Sea nations would like to be rid of and a nuke is a convenient way to ruin China’s day. The US is highly inclined to let them but then we have to clean up the mess, so heck no.
North Korea doesn’t need anymore toys. Period. With China collapsed or teetering, NK could easily get desperate fast. Odds on favorite is they nuke themselves if they are trying to use an old Russian bomb but Seoul is way too close to the DMZ so let’s just not.
The attentive will notice that I started by telling you this wouldn’t end in nuclear conflagration then spent three paragraphs on various nuclear conflicts. This only seems contradictory – the reason the whole mess won’t end up with small groups doing moronic things is primarily the US and then a lot of nation-states that don’t want the US PO’d with them for letting stupid things happen. The end result is a mess and looks like a Cold War spy movie, but nuclear proliferation is averted, hero kisses the girl and credits roll.
Neither Russia nor China will use nukes simply because there is nothing to be gained. Sure the ‘with my last breath I spit at thee’ moment looks cool, but then you’re dead and the hero kisses the girl anyway. In real life, people are more concerned with staying alive and minimizing the damage. This is especially true for political leaders. They are convinced they can too have their cake and eat it too if we just give them enough time to figure out how. The suicidal maniac doesn’t last long in politics, and getting your country nuked doesn’t look good in the history books.
Yes, that way oversimplifies the complexity of such decisions but the result is unlikely in the extreme to differ. No nuclear firestorm blaze of glory death spiral this time, thanks. We have better things to do as nation-states.
In Part Two we’ll discuss NATO and the West in a post Russo-Sino world. Less nuclear, more yelling.
Politics as unusual, coming up next Monday!
