Oh, stop laughing – they have been incredibly successful in mobilizing their manpower. Estimates are that at least 300,000 men are already on the move. Oh wait, Forbes thinks it’s 700,000.*
To other countries.
As fast as they can.
This might not have been quite what the Russian government had in mind when they instituted the mobilization. But it is definitely what they got, more men fleeing the draft than answering the call.
Ukraine’s ‘I Want to Live’ hotline has received about 2000 calls as of this writing. According to Ukraine, this includes calls from conscripts not yet in Ukraine but wanting to learn how to surrender before they get there.
These reports gain credibility from Russian videos of mobilized conscripts complaining that they have been given little to no training, equipment, or even assignments. Russian commentators of a variety of stripes, especially including hawkish hardliners, are publicly complaining about how the war is going, the mobilization, the government and even Putin’s inner circle. This is extremely interesting – and a sign that there is big trouble in the Russian government.
Relatively speaking, the protests against the mobilization have been massive in number and turnout. A Sunday picnic in comparison to anything the US would bother to call a real protest, sure, but remember that Russia doesn’t do public protest. You get arrested and sent to prison for holding up blank signs – protest in Russia is not for the faint of heart. So when we see Russians actually protesting publicly, it does mean something, and likely something very bad for the current government.
That the mobilization and the protests took center stage over the sham annexations also tells us something. No one is buying the Russian narrative and Russia now knows it. The Nord Stream sabotage is a nothing burger when it really should not be – but Russia is taking the spotlight in all the wrong ways.
Russian lines continue to lose significant ground. At least two routs now, including the latest in Kherson. Militarily, relying on the experts, this isn’t impossible for Russia to recover from but it’s getting bad enough that the mobilized troops may come too late. Politically, in my opinion, stick a fork in it, the Russian invasion is done.
No, the Russians won’t resort to nukes. That gains them nothing and costs far more than it could possibly be worth. They will rattle the heck out of that sword but because Russia itself is feeling its vulnerability. If they can’t win against Ukraine which is fighting with a bunch of loaner weapons from NATO, the Russians sure can’t win against NATO itself. Nuclear saber rattling is the sign of weakness and fear. It’s the kid that punched your little brother and hides behind his own clueless big brother while telling you not to come any closer or else.
Russia is afraid. It should be. Not because NATO will invade Russia – that’s beyond the pale silly – but because every podunk little nation-state that Russia has bullied in the last twenty years and a few of the Russian Federation regions that are less than thrilled right now have all figured out that the emperor not only has no clothes, he’s ticklish as all get out. It’s not going to be a fun decade for Russia – not even if they pull of a military miracle and actually win something. You can’t unsee the naked emperor.
Putin wants to maintain his power. The sharks have already smelled blood. Not having a successor is a useful strategy right up until no one cares anymore and Russia is getting pretty close to that point. Russia is strongly nationalistic – always has been – and draws its political security from the strength of its leader. It’s the one thing Russia has no tolerance for – weak leadership. Putin knows that better than anyone. He will not go down without a fight.
But he’s an old man with few options. The Russian tradition of tossing cannon fodder until the enemy runs out of bullets won’t work. The cannon fodder decided to run away. The rest is on TikTok voicing their displeasure. Dealing with a public that not only disapproves but voices that disapproval is way outside the norm for the Russian government. This messes up all their normal contingency plans.
As a direct result, the Russian government is now stuck with an actual mobilization that will have to involve valid selections and real, honest to goodness training and equipment. The Russians weren’t planning on the first, already sent all their trainers to Ukraine for the second and have nothing left for the third. This isn’t something the Russians know how to do anymore. It’ll take months to sort out and actually do. Months Putin doesn’t have.
The Russian top down model has a fatal flaw – it puts officers in harm’s way and you end up with a headless zombie that no one can control properly. It’s unclear if Russia even has a command structure left that’s capable of digging themselves out of this mess. Ukrainians with HIMARS keep blasting their command posts to smithereens with their command officers still in them. I can’t tell you how bad that is militarily, although I’m given to believe that it is very, very bad, but politically, this is killing the war effort. Killing your heroes with your stupid system is a surefire way to turn your public against you.
The Ukrainian guys that were fighting with rocket launchers strapped to Toyotas are now effectively using tanks, so the military guys tell me. Where Russia is losing its combat effective forces, Ukraine is building them in spades. Again, I’m no military analyst but that sounds like it could be a rather big problem for Russia. Politically, it’s just pouring salt in the wound. The chances that NATO will turn its back on Ukraine are getting closer to zero every day.
Having Ukrainian forces show up Russian forces in a professional military manner, which seems to be in the cards now, will drive the folks back home in Russia absolutely ape-bad word. I’m not seeing a military option being floated by the guys that actually know how to military for Russia to regain the upper hand here. To win politically, Putin needs a battlefield victory, preferably a big one, and for Ukraine to capitulate their territory. I can’t rule out a great battlefield turnaround but it ain’t looking too likely at the moment. Ukraine isn’t giving up its territory and Putin will have to learn to live with that.
Russia has made some noise about negotiations. Had they been more gracious at the beginning when Ukraine was willing to disavow ever joining NATO in return for a Russian withdrawal, maybe Ukraine would be more willing to listen. Maybe, but Ukraine knows full well it has the upper hand and that negotiations don’t work in their favor, at least not yet. That door is closed for the time being.
The Russian mobilization is at best looking to be too little too late. At worst, it’s looking like the act of a desperate government flailing around trying not to drown in the flood of its own making. The middle is probably closest to the truth: Russia is losing and getting desperate enough to try stupid things. This is not usually a winning strategy.
The disclaimer, of course, is that nation-states are resilient little buggers. Am I hedging my bet? Absolutely, because nation-states really are tough nuts to crack. I remember one little podunk backwater that was stupid enough to go up against the mightiest nation on Earth. It stood no chance. No one thought they could win. Heck, it took us eight years to drive out the British – and we had an ocean between us and them!
In February, everyone assumed Ukraine would lose and probably within weeks. Not just Russia, very few military analysts and almost no political analysts gave Ukraine any chance of not being overrun. They were wrong.
Russia is a big country with lots of resources and people. Despite what we’re seeing now, it’s not impossible for Russia to pull a proverbial rabbit from its hat. That said, I was one of the few that thought Ukraine could win. I am currently one of the growing number who don’t think Russia any longer has a chance of winning.
Still, never count out a nation-state until it actually surrenders. But I wouldn’t be making any large bets on Russia at the moment, if I were you.
*10/6/2022 Neither Google nor Duck Duck Go would open any return under a search about ‘700000 leave Russia’. Both returned results but neither would open any of the articles listed. Brave Search returned nearly identical results and opened all without difficulty. Hmmmm…
** Yes, I know Finland closed its border. But Kazakhstan is hard to spell!
