All investigations begin this way. You have an idea of the what or you wouldn’t be investigating. Who, where and when – those you start with in varying degrees. But none of them are as critical to figuring out what is going on as why.
In many cases, we can simply ‘follow the money’ – or power. Someone is getting something out of whatever is going on – or it wouldn’t be going on. Now, there are indeed a lot of times when that reason isn’t money or power – but those apply more to individual and community politics. But to be fair, they can occur on the world stage. However, looking for the zebra on a horse ranch is not a good way to start.
In all cases, there’s a reason people, parties, and nations are acting the way they are. Sometimes it’s the reason that they give – but often, there’s more to it. When we analyze political actions and actors, the first question we need to ask is why because everything else will make sense if we know what motivates the action or actor.
Let’s take the current issue with China’s incursion into Taiwanese defense territory. Is China saber rattling to get an economic concession of some sort? Almost certainly not – they have no reason to suppose that the current admin will be hostile and every reason to suppose otherwise. Saber rattling would defeat their purpose – if economic concessions were their purpose.
What about finally settling the Taiwan matter? I’m trying really hard to take this one seriously – and in truth, there is an element of this that does bear on the problem. But you don’t telegraph your punches. China has many faults – inane stupidity isn’t one of them. If this incursion were only about Taiwan, they’d have gone for it with a full invasion.
So what are they up to? Provoking a US military response? Okay, now I am laughing. That would fall into suicidally stupid – and China isn’t that. No, China is not trying to provoke a response, at least not that kind of response.
Why then? What does China gain? Well, it’s not money or power – or is it?
China is that kid that woke up one morning to find he wasn’t the scrawny small kid anymore but one of the biggest kids on the block. There’s a bit of a learning curve going from a third world nation to a first world nation – and China has been hitting a few of the higher hurdles in the last decade.
China’s economy isn’t stalled – but it might as well be. China used its tremendous economic growth over the last thirty years to quell a LOT of internal problems. Quell, not cure – and that’s where the trouble lies. China isn’t growing nearly as fast as it was before. Where Western nations are pretty used to the recession cycle and our governments don’t tend to panic, China isn’t used to it and absolutely cannot afford it in terms of political capital.
China is NOT a democracy or a constitutional government by any stretch of the imagination. It’s still very much an authoritarian regime with delusions of communism. But the regime isn’t the people. The Chinese people may not have the constitutional power that the American people enjoy but they do have one big thing – numbers. There aren’t enough bullets to keep a regime in power in a nation of one billion people if those people become ungovernable.
China’s wealthy work very hard – to get their wealth out of China. They aren’t looking for tax havens – they are looking for economic stability China simply doesn’t have. China’s currency isn’t like the American dollar that is frequently accepted – even coveted – in transactions abroad. China’s currency isn’t where wealthy people want to store their wealth – because they have little faith in its long term value.
Those are the highlights – here’s the meat. The Chinese Communist Party would like to stay in power. An economic downturn seriously threatens their ability to do so. A lot of their initiatives in the last decade indicate their nervousness about their economy and its impact on their citizens.
So why Taiwan and why now? Taiwan is a massive thorn in China’s side – specifically in the CCP’s side. Ending Taiwanese independence would show the folks at home that the CCP is still large and in charge. Actually invading, however, is suicidal and the CCP knows it. If the US responds according to its treaty obligations, that’s gonna be a very short lived invasion and the CCP is going to have a HUGE amount of egg on its face.
No, it wouldn’t trigger a nuclear response – nor is it likely to cause a nuclear war. That is beyond the pale suicidal – the CCP is struggling for its political life. They haven’t decided to end their actual lives in the attempt – they are a long way from that desperate.
And yes, I’ve seen the ‘but China can’t tell our bombers apart so they’ll panic’ analysis – it’s bunk. The Chinese don’t need to – they know darn good and well that we have far better tools in the arsenal than easily spotted bombers. They’re more likely to be relieved to see bombers if it came to a hot war, knowing that the US can launch nukes from SUBS and would almost certainly not waste the bomber fuel if the US planned to use nukes.
The actually funny analysis was that China would launch ICBMs because a bomber crossed into disputed airspace – give me a break. If they were that trigger happy we’d have already reduced the planet to slag by now. China is fully aware that an ICBM launch will result in a retaliatory strike from the US – at a ten to one return ratio. We have a LOT more bombs than they do – and the CCP is completely aware of that fact – and not anywhere near suicidal enough to risk it. We’d get badly hurt; China would be annhiliated.
Getting back to reality, the CCP is politically desperate because it’s NOT politically suicidal. They don’t want the embarrassment of losing a conventional conflict with the US – or worse, Taiwan which isn’t actually defenseless. So no, they aren’t trying to launch an invasion of Taiwan.
What they are doing is probing the US – they want to know just how weak the Biden admin really is. Given the G7 fiasco, they may have gotten their hopes up – but more likely, they are trying to take the political heat at home down several notches by irritating the US just enough to provoke a diplomatic response and by looking strong against Taiwan – but not going far enough to get into a real fight.
Yet. If China gauges the US to be weak enough that it won’t respond militarily then China might just ramp up those invasion plans – hence the probe. But given the economic and political stresses in china over bother the slowing economic growth and the Wuhan debacle, they are probably more concerned with keeping the Chinese people focused on potential threats abroad rather than the incompetence of their governance at home.
So, is everything hunky dory? Well, as much as tense international relations ever are, sure. Could this go very badly south? Sure, especially if the current Laurel and Hardy administration can’t get its act together. Is this likely to result in military conflict as of right now? Not more than launching things to look at each other menacingly, no. China wants to see if the US is still up for a fight – but it isn’t remotely interested in doing anything that might truly provoke one with the US.
