Which one will it be?
Okay it’s kind of a trick question – Justice Breyer’s retirement isn’t until October. The nomination fight could be as early as October which would probably be next to impossible to get Senate approval since Manchin would like a fighting chance in November. A fight after the midterms but before the new Congress (November – January) would be the best chance the Democrats have of getting a nominee through – except that the Republicans will likely push the filibuster and there’s a real chance that outgoing senators might just take the chance to revenge themselves on the party that backstabbed them (unlikely but possible). Good luck keeping the Senate in session over Christmas so the working time is limited but a really determined effort might just succeed.
After the new Congress is seated Biden will likely need a new nominee – or ten.
But let’s assume a fighting chance here – after all, there’s a lot of untested water and Republicans are notorious for being agreeable with the insane so Biden could indeed get a nominee through. Who would that nominee be?
Well, per his campaign promise, she has to be black. That’s pretty much it for qualifications: black and female. On the bright side, that eliminates Merrick Garland – unless he has some pretty radical surgery between now and October.
Oh, the quandary! Eh, not really – Biden’s shot of getting his first nominee through is poor at best. So why would Breyer retire now? Well, it does give Biden a nomination – and more importantly, an opportunity to get rid of Harris.
Nominee Prospect Number One: Kamala Harris
Leaving aside the ethics of voting for herself as a nominee to the Supreme Court – and yes, she’d have to in order to be confirmed – Harris is the most likely candidate of the widely known options. She has legitimate legal credentials – which aren’t an actual requirement but certainly help a heck of a lot – and a seat on the Court would be a graceful exit for an albatross around Biden’s neck.
Politically, she’s perfect. Realistically, yeah, she’s the likely choice. Chance of success – a snowball has a better shot in an erupting volcano. It’s the sort of thing that pleases no one and angers everyone for a variety of different reasons. Harris has no fans in the base and certainly not outside it. Biden is the only person who would want this nomination as it seemingly benefits him politically.
Whoever talked Breyer into retirement didn’t do Harris or Biden any favors. Sure, it’s the only shot they have of a confirmation but even with a much better candidate, that chance is slim. At this point I think Harris is the likely nominee and the fallout will be radioactive for the Democrats for at least a decade. Harris should seriously consider emigrating to Canada – this is likely to be extremely bad.
Nominee Prospect Number Two: Stacey Abrams
And you thought Harris was a nuclear option. Abrams at least has some support with the base. That’s about it. She is an attorney so that box is checked and she ran a disasterous campaign for the Georgia governorship. She at least won the party nomination which is better than Harris did in the presidential race. But Abrams has no national track record and none of the legal chops for a judicial nomination. Her nomination would come down to her being a somewhat famous black female Democrat.
The insane part of the Democrat party might well support her – how much use that support will be by October is in doubt. The radical leftists are losing ground as the party hemorrhages voters even from its strongest base. All fingers are pointed at the radical left and their identity politics – I’m not sure any black female candidate even with the best of qualifications would be supported by what’s left of the Democrats by October.
Could Abrams be confirmed? Sure – but the fallout would be massive. All nominations are political but they really shouldn’t look like that’s all they are. This isn’t Abrams fault – but her lack of appeal even within her own party makes the chances that the party will rally around her in any meaningful way remote and that would likely sink any chance she did have. There are too many Democrat senators that have to face election in 2024 for them to go to bat for an unpopular candidate other than probably Harris.
Nominee Prospect Number Three: Condoleezza Rice
Now hold on a second – I already know she’s not exactly a Democrat but bear with me here. She fits the two most important qualifications – she’s black and female. More importantly, Biden could actually get her confirmed.
No legal qualifications to speak of – given some of the Court’s rulings that may not be a liability – and the biggest hurdle is she’s smart enough to graciously turn it down. Assuming someone could talk her into it – and I wouldn’t bet on that – Rice is an excellent choice from a political POV. She’s center right (mostly) and well liked by both Republicans and moderate Democrats. Most senators could survive a vote for her. And the Democrat wingnuts would go out of their minds – which will probably be fine with the rest of the party by then.
Realistically, she won’t be considered and wouldn’t be likely to accept the nomination. But she’s the only candidate I can think of that could in fact get the confirmation before the new Congress is seated with little to no real difficulty.
Nominee Prospect Number Four: Candace Owens
Our final pick has zero chance whatsoever but she has the main qualifications, I like her and it would be hysterical to watch the Democrat Party blow a collective gasket. BUT, given Biden’s increasing dementia, who knows? One confused press conference, the right question (Peter Doocy, we’re counting on you!) and there’d be no way to walk it back.
Oh, they would, of course – but can you imagine Jen Psaki’s face trying to explain that Biden didn’t really mean to nominate a conservative like Candace Owens?
It’s going to be a three ring circus no matter who Biden gives the nod – but Owens would be the most fun of all to watch!
Pass the popcorn, will ya?
