Excepting maybe itself. Although at times it acts so contrary to its own self interest that you kinda have to wonder if even the CCP likes the CCP.

One of the most annoying things about getting old is having to say blatantly obvious things because none of the young ‘uns seem to know anything at all about history. Or how to do basic arithmetic, but I suppose that’s another story. Anywho, let’s talk about the freaking elephant in the room – the CCP ain’t China.

Now, if you’re older than a mayfly, that’s bleeping obvious. But the CCP has been doing a heck of a job of trying to convince both the Chinese people and the rest of the world that the CCP is China. That they are inextricably linked. And that the sun only rises because the CCP tells it to. Okay, probably not that last one – at least not yet.

In foreign policy, we can talk about them as if they were indeed one and the same because the CCP rules China. It makes all the foreign policy decisions so there’s little reason to note the distinction while discussing those decisions However, when we want to discuss how China relates to the rest of the world, or whether or not its economy is about to go belly up, now it gets complicated.

The whole planned economy thing has long since been proven a farce, but it’s in its third act in China. That’s because the CCP holds onto power any which way it can. Need Western style economic growth so that you don’t face a Soviet Union style collapse? Well, we just let that free market be a little free – enough to jump start both growth and investment. But with ‘Chinese characteristics’ – a euphemism for CCP control.

It worked partially because the China of the 1980’s had no where to go but up once unshackled even a little. It worked mostly because the rest of the world got all caught up in the moment – and its own greed – and let the CCP play by its own rules so that we could get access to that giant, untapped market. Boy, was that dumb.

Now, I’m not an economist and don’t even want to play one on TV but the guys who are have been blowing the whistle on the CCP’s multiple misdeeds over the years and the fact that those ill conceived policies were going to eventually come home to roost. What no one expected was that it would take thirty years and that the whole flock would come home at once.

Intellectual property theft, no real accounting accountability or oversight, obscuring to the point of insanity the real statistics of all kinds coming out of China, aggressive to the point of comedy foreign relations, military build up, mistreatment of their own populations, genocide, murder for profit – you name it, the CCP has done it. And we let them.

Until Trump. It’s looking increasingly like even he may not have gone far enough. Maybe, just maybe, if the CCP had been brought to heel internationally, the Chinese people wouldn’t be facing such a bleak future.

Maybe. We’ll never know.

Maybe China will get lucky and the impending train wreck of its social, economic, international and military policies won’t all crash at once. Maybe, somehow, they’ll dodge all the incoming bullets.

I wouldn’t bet on that one.

The CCP complicates – deliberately – reading their policies. Are they 4D chess genius’ about to checkmate the world? Or are the rats flailing about trying to abandon their sinking ship? A bit of both?

I don’t know and I’m not sure it matters right now. I wouldn’t bet on Biden finishing out his term – or 2023. Harris will spend the remaining time hiding under her desk or she’ll go all power crazy and be impeached in yet a new record time. That matters for the CCP because it means their time is running out. Whoever replaces Biden/Harris won’t be China friendly – certainly not publicly even if so privately.

Divorce is messy. But this is less a divorce and more a wearing out the little miscreant’s hinny. Which will probably be even messier. The CCP seems to have gotten the memo. Their last diplomatic outing was much more conciliatory with nary a ‘wolf warrior’ to be heard. But it’s way too late.

The US and the West are on the way out the door. It won’t be like Russia with overnight sanctions. It will be slower, more methodical and just as deadly for the Chinese economy. There are plenty of nations that have low skilled labor and will bend over backwards for new plants to be built there. The CCP has its bright shiny new aircraft carriers so it won’t need US naval protection as its goods are transported – or so the line will go.

No sane foreign investor will try to bail out the real estate sector. It might not matter if they did – the Chinese people have been using real estate as investment for decades. Way too many have lost several life savings in apartments that were never finished and probably never will be. They have begun to realize that there’s no point in paying for property they can never own, use or sell.

The demographics are just ugly. The one child policy has insured that many Chinese men will never marry. And Mom and Dad aren’t getting any younger. The young Chinese are expected to buy a house, raise three kids and take care of their parents all within the coming decade. It’s already unravelling.

This is all the CCP’s doing. And there doesn’t appear to be a solution.

So, what am I rambling about? Over the coming months China is likely to be in for a number of nasty shocks, both economic and international. The CCP is not equipped to deal with the real growing pains of a nation-state and frankly, they’re facing much worse than just growing pains. This is unlikely to go well.

It takes time for a nation-state to collapse. I don’t know of any experts foreseeing a near-future collapse for China but I only know a handful who think China as a nation-state has a future. Yes, China is the second largest economy but it isn’t as strong as the CCP would like everyone to think. When nation-states collapse it can be relatively painless, like the Soviet Union, or horrendously costly, like Nazi Germany. With or without a war, the CCP has set China up for a spectacularly bad fall.

Personally, I think it has begun. We’re getting more and more reports coming out of China and about China that would normally be quashed by the CCP. But even totalitarian states can’t fight a hundred brushfires at once – the more such reports come out despite the CCP’s wishes, the more likely that it’s even worse than we think.

The CCP is no one’s friend. It will not hesitate to take its people and allies down with it. If possible, it will take its enemies, too.

This is not going to be pretty. And it is not something the United States can safely ignore.