swing states – Quill Sword

Archena November 2, 2024November 2, 2024Current, Wednesdayconservative analysis, election 2024, election predictions, Media bias, political rallies, poll aggregation, poll reliability, polling accuracy, polling bias, polling limitations, Real Clear Politics, small sample size, swing states, Trump support, voter sentiment

Looking at the Polls and Wishing I Weren’t

I considered just dumping the blog below this one because it is from last week and I didn’t get around to posting it on time but it shows my work and how I decide what to review when I’m looking at polls. Aggregators like Real Clear Politics are useful because they’ve already hunted down all the wild polls, but averaging is just dumb. I will ignore the average. There are so few good enough polls available right now that I … Continue reading “Looking at the Polls and Wishing I Weren’t”

Archena October 30, 2024October 30, 2024Current, Mondayblue states flipping, campaign momentum, conservative blog, election predictions, Electoral College, Madison Square Garden rally, Media bias, political rallies, political trends, poll analysis, swing states, Trump 2024, Trump vs Harris, voter enthusiasm

Is Trump Going to Win Big?

My best assessment is that the race is his to lose. I think Trump would have to actively sabotage his own campaign to lose at this point. However, last I looked, I am not omniscient so I could, in fact, be wrong. Not that I’m going to let that stop me. If you wanted omniscient, you’d be praying to the Almighty, not reading my little blog, or watching a silly eagle in a BBQ apron while I ramble on. Now … Continue reading “Is Trump Going to Win Big?”

Archena October 8, 2024October 8, 2024Current, Monday2024 election, Biden approval rating, conservative commentary, Donald Trump, economic concerns, election polls, Electoral College, Kamala Harris, margin of error, political forecasting, polling data analysis, swing states, US presidential race, voter volatility

Is Harris Going to Win?

Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE! You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you? Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look at the blog or video … Continue reading “Is Harris Going to Win?”

Archena August 2, 2024August 2, 2024Current, Monday2024 election, campaign strategy, Democratic Party, election predictions, Kamala Harris, media coverage, Political analysis, polling data, presidential campaign, swing states

Honeymoon or Nightmare? Harris’ First Week as Candidate

The new polls are out. They may or may not matter. Depends, with them being right on the heels of Biden’s ouster, the public’s opinion may not have caught up with the Democrat whiplash. But, since when are we going to let a little thing like commonsense get in the way of endless analysis? Well, if you watch any of the legacy media, commonsense has definitely lost. The Democrat cheerleaders like MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC and even CNN are singing … Continue reading “Honeymoon or Nightmare? Harris’ First Week as Candidate”

Tag swing states

Tag: swing states

Looking at the Polls and Wishing I Weren’t

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Is Trump Going to Win Big?

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Is Harris Going to Win?

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Honeymoon or Nightmare? Harris’ First Week as Candidate

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