Knowing only the public information I have access to right now, no. I’m extremely dubious that the US was involved. Let’s start with the elephant: Biden’s comments in February that the US could destroy the pipeline. The German Chancellor was right there. It was a joint press conference held February 7th. Reporters pestered Biden until they got a soundbite. It wasn’t even a very good one considering he said nothing about destroying the pipeline, just ‘ending it’. Germany did that … Continue reading “Did We Do It? Nord Stream Sabotage”
Calm Down – This is Normal
I don’t mean the ‘new normal’. I mean normal. The half insane, scary as heck, what are they thinking behavior of not just Russia and China but the entire international community is the real normal. Those of you who can’t remember the Cold War have lived in the weird times. America was the big scary thing so everyone loved/hated it – including some Americans. Europe was preoccupied with becoming something never quite defined. Elites worldwide were convinced – or pretending … Continue reading “Calm Down – This is Normal”
Mobilization. Are We Serious Yet?
Short answer: no. Long answer – oh please, as if war weren’t serious. If you’re not serious, don’t invade. Having the best military on the planet does you no good if the political war is already lost. I’m an American – ask me how I know and try to keep a straight face. In my political opinion, Russia lost this war on February 24, 2022, the day they were stupid enough to invade. Despite all protests to the contrary, Sweden … Continue reading “Mobilization. Are We Serious Yet?”
Taking No Joy
This week I’ve talked a lot about nation-states and political parties in collapse. These are bad things even when they are likely to ultimately result in good. But as they happen, people get hurt. Lives are altered, destroyed and even lost. It hurts to see the organization you worked so hard for or really believed in crash and burn. At a bare minimum will be economic losses and disruptions. Anyone happy about any of that isn’t thinking too straight. Lately, … Continue reading “Taking No Joy”
When Nation-State Collapse is a Good Thing
Recently, a friend asked me if I understood what a collapse would mean for China. Short answer: yes. Long answer: as much as one can understand before such an event, I believe so, yes. My friend was aghast at the idea that China would collapse because of what it would mean for the people of China and the rest of the world. He’s not wrong to worry about such things but a better question is what happens if China doesn’t … Continue reading “When Nation-State Collapse is a Good Thing”
Is Russia Losing the War with Ukraine?
I’m writing this on September 11, 2022. At this time, the Kharkiv front has collapsed in a rout for the Russians. Ukrainian troops have reached the border and have liberated a large swath of territory on the eastern side of Ukraine. Russian media is having a hard time covering for the defeat. No, that doesn’t mean Russia has lost – yet. But it looks very, very bad. I’m not a military analysis and I don’t play one on TV but … Continue reading “Is Russia Losing the War with Ukraine?”
Russia and China, Frenemies Forever
Just because it’s not the end of the world doesn’t mean we can take our eyes off the ball. That’s important because international relations is just like a kindergarten but when nation-states throw tantrums they also throw very nasty things like bombs and bullets. I know, everyone is wringing their hands over the coming of World War Three and nuclear annihilation and monkey pox and every other impeding form of doom. You can stop now. It’s okay. There’s not going … Continue reading “Russia and China, Frenemies Forever”
Just Go, Brandon
Mondays I try to talk foreign policy. So why, you ask, am I talking about the Resident of the United States? (No, I didn’t misspell.) Simple, there’s a difference between messing up and being able to laugh with others at yourself afterwards – something we’re decent at – and being an international laughingstock. We are fast becoming the latter and it is a very bad thing. Mostly because the Democrats and the Leftstream Media are desperate to save the party, … Continue reading “Just Go, Brandon”
Who’s Winning? Ukraine Versus Russia
No one, yet. All right, already, here’s the long version: We’re not even through the first quarter yet. Russia scored big at the kickoff but couldn’t hold out. Ukraine came back with a massive wave, taking the lead. But Russia went back to its old playbook and has started to gain yardage. It only took Russia three months to get a first down. If wars had nice, clean rules like football, we still wouldn’t be sure who was really doing … Continue reading “Who’s Winning? Ukraine Versus Russia”
What Happens When Russia Collapses?
Historically, not much. A lot of killing if they happen to have a tsar and a lot of complaining to go along with a whole lot of behind the scenes feuding until someone finally becomes the new leader. Yay, milk and cookies, and a few decades of oppression. Wash, rinse, repeat. Seriously, the last five hundred years of Russian history is pretty much an unending cycle of revolt, strong man government, economic prosperity, economic downturn and a new revolt. Corruption, … Continue reading “What Happens When Russia Collapses?”