Political Scientists like to think they are real scientists. Sometimes, they even are. Most times, they are analysts. But since the field has science in the name, they try very, very hard to be a sciency as possible. The results can be fairly comical. Scientist or analyst, they still need frameworks to work from. America has 330 million people and 22,000 plus governments. Making sense of that without some kind of framework is impossible. The world has 195 countries, not … Continue reading “The Failure of Realpolitik”
Maricopa County: Why Democrats Cheat
There are polls you never see. These are done on behalf of campaigns. Campaigns spend a WHOLE LOT of money on these polls. That doesn’t mean they don’t have issues because all modern polling has issues, but it does mean they should be far more accurate than the garbage aired on the news each night. These polls are done early and often. They are used to guide the strategic planning of a campaign. That sounds worse than it is; polls … Continue reading “Maricopa County: Why Democrats Cheat”
Government: Parent or Pet?
The Twentieth Century was a contest between competing political ideologies. It is a gross oversimplification to say that it was just between Communism and Capitalism or Authoritarianism and Democracy. Politics exists on a spectrum and no matter how hard we try, there are too many issues to have even two people agree on every single one, let alone whole nation-states of people. But since I’m still not interested in writing a dissertation, we’ll settle for the generalization. The Twentieth Century … Continue reading “Government: Parent or Pet?”
Republicans Take Control of the House!
November 17, 2022 The first announcements broke early Wednesday but confirmation reports didn’t come until Wednesday evening. Fox didn’t show the 218 count until this morning. The media covered Trump’s announcement that he is running for president extensively, but barely a whimper about the upset. Oh well, it only took eight days to find out. Isn’t twenty-first century tech great? I decided to delay my post until I had confirmation. I am not yet willing to analyze the midterms mostly … Continue reading “Republicans Take Control of the House!”
Stop Panicking. Democrats Just Can’t Count
The margin will be narrower than I’d thought but it seems very unlikely Republicans won’t take the House. The chances of taking the Senate are still decent. Can we please stop acting like the world is ending? Once the results ACTUALLY come in, we need to take a hard look at what exactly happened here. I’d love to blame the polls but since I wasn’t using them, that would be silly. The results we have so far do cast a … Continue reading “Stop Panicking. Democrats Just Can’t Count”
And the Winner is… Please Stand By
You’re not going to like my take on the midterms right now. It is too early to analyze the results – or lack thereof – correctly. Therefore, I’m not going to offer an analysis at this time. Once the results are in and events shake out over the next three to four days, I’ll have something to work with and do a reasonable analysis. I know, lots and lots of talking heads are telling you all about the disaster or … Continue reading “And the Winner is… Please Stand By”
Unity Isn’t Agreement: Why Fussing and Fighting Isn’t Polarization
Every Thanksgiving we sit down to a lovely meal, express our gratitude to God for His many blessings and proceed to fight over every little thing. Turkey v, ham, Alabama v Auburn, football v baseball, board games v video games, kids v kids with video games, who Mom likes best and then Uncle Bob ruins the whole thing by bringing up politics. Next year, we repeat the whole thing. Why? Obviously, there’s no one at that table that agrees on … Continue reading “Unity Isn’t Agreement: Why Fussing and Fighting Isn’t Polarization”
Tax Returns and Presidents
The United States Supreme Court stayed a lower court ruling. Happens all the time. This particular stay will keep Congress’ greedy mitts off of Trump’s tax returns for at least another ten days. Yay – why do we care? Well, first off, the premise for Congress’ subpoena keeps changing. At present, the idea is that Congress needs the returns to sort out how to handle presidential tax returns in the future. trouble is, they aren’t asking for any returns but … Continue reading “Tax Returns and Presidents”
Twelve Days Until the Midterms
From what I’m hearing, all the polls are pointing toward a Republican sweep. More importantly in my opinion, there are no obvious indicators that point elsewhere. My personal favorite is small donations. Most small donations go to candidates that person actually supports and will go out and vote to elect. There’s no reason to ‘lie’ with a small donation. You aren’t really hedging your bet by making small donations to every candidate. Even if you can afford it, few people … Continue reading “Twelve Days Until the Midterms”
Golly, The Polls Might Be Wrong Again?
Gee, how can that be? Okay, okay, less sarcasm, more explanation. There are several major factors and a host of minor ones. We’ll cover the majors. First, most polls aren’t done to actually measure voter preference. This is a feature, not a bug. MSNBC, CNN and FOX just want something to fill the dead space. Polls are quick, cheap and sound like something – without being easily checked. Well, at least most folks don’t know how. Five bajillion percent increase … Continue reading “Golly, The Polls Might Be Wrong Again?”