Well that was a busy week wasn’t it?
In a surprise to absolutely no one, Donald Trump won 14 of the 15 states on Super Tuesday. In a shock to absolutely everyone, Joe Biden made it all the way through the State of the Union address without collapsing, wandering off the stage or otherwise showing advanced stages of dementia.
Having won Vermont, Nikki Haley, finally getting a clue, has dropped out of the presidential race.
So what does all this get us?
Well for normal people, not a whole lot. The needle hasn’t moved. Donald Trump will still be the Republican nominee for president. Nikki Haley will still spend the next four years trying to rebuild her reputation. And Joe Biden will still have his ice cream break.
Okay so I’m not being fair to Joe Biden but in all honesty nothing changed as a result of his State of the Union address. Well, nothing changed for Biden anyway.
If, and it’s a big if, there really is a plot to replace Biden as the Democrat nominee it just got a lot less likely. Going into the State of the Union Democrats were afraid that Biden would perform poorly that he would be seen to be weak incompetent or that he just have a really really bad day.
Well, he did have a really, really bad day in that his address is going to come back to bite, when we finally get to the point that he’s actually running for president. But in the meantime, while he’s running for the nomination, his performance Thursday night just made it almost impossible to remove him as the nominee.
Now as I’ve said before, I don’t think there was much of any chance that he would be removed as nominee. For one thing that’s most likely going to upset the base and therefore lose any chance at all of the winning the general election. But the bigger problem is that Biden is unwilling to go quietly into that good night.
Biden’s behavior in front of live audiences has been shall we say unpredictable. Dementia will do that to you. But when you mix in cantankerous with dementia, you get whole new levels of unpredictable.
No matter what Biden might say in private or how amenable he might be to stepping aside when he is surrounded by well meaning advisors and out of the public light there is no guarantee that he’s not going to get in front of a live press conference and say something completely different.
Completely different, or worse, complaining to the American people how his own party is trying to make him quit.
Basically, there’s no way to make Biden go unless he wants to. Problem being that Biden has wanted to be president since he was old enough put on pants by himself. The chances of talking him into quitting now are pretty much zero.
And even if you could convince him, being in the early stages of dementia means that your memory plays tricks. While he might’ve been perfectly in agreement 10 minutes before the press conference, there’s no guarantee he will be was soon as he steps in front of those cameras.
Before the State of the Union, assuming the silly plot ever actually existed, the best chance the plotters had was to have a change of nominee forced by the superdelegates at the Democrat convention.
While procedurally possible, this was never a really good plan or a terribly likely event. But assuming that that’s what they had intended to do, it would’ve had to been on the basis that Biden was no longer capable of continuing with the presidential run.
Unless Biden comes down with a really really bad case of the flu there’s no way in the world that the Democrats can now argue that Biden is not capable of completing the presidential run and presumably to serve another four years. Biden successfully spoke for nearly an hour and a half. He did all the gladhanding on the way in and a whole lot of it on the way out.
Basically, Biden looked as fit as he has in months. There’s no longer any rational basis for the increasingly irrational Democrats to remove Biden as nominee.
Reality notwithstanding of course.
Biden declined yet again to be examined for competency. And even his State of the Union address was marked by at least gaffes but some pretty obvious errors that seem to stem from Biden’s mental competency or lack thereof.
But those things aren’t going to help the Democrats remove him. And that leaves us right where we started.
So we had a lot of big news this week and very little changed. Oh sure, Nikki Haley did finally drop out, having successfully proven what everyone already knew, that she couldn’t defeat Donald Trump. The minuscule handful of delegates she cost Trump are meaningless and whatever she was trying to accomplish, she failed.
Which we could’ve told her two years ago.
Donald Trump will pick up the remaining 212 delegates sometime in the next couple weeks. That will formally secure the nomination, but in reality, the nomination is his now. It’s not like Trump didn’t already know it, he’s been running against Biden since late February.
No, the only thing that changed was that Biden’s position as nominee going into the Democrat convention has been strengthened. No matter how desperately his own party may want to replace him, it’s politically impossible now.
Not that it was very likely to begin with.
Super Tuesday is already a distant memory a mere three days after the primaries were held. The State of the Union address will last about a week, maybe a week and a half, before the news cycle moves on from it as well.
Unless of course Fani Willis’ disqualification hearing comes up with any new juicy tidbits. Biden’s gaffes aren’t nearly as entertaining as the sordid goings on in Fulton County, Georgia.
Although we do hear tell that Letitia James is now trying to get Fani Willis a run for her money in the elected official corruption category.
A massive political win for beleaguered, embattled candidate and a personal victory for an incredibly unpopular president both upstaged by the antics of two corrupt prosecutors attempting to make a name for themselves.
No wonder Tik-Tok is so danged popular.