The margin will be narrower than I’d thought but it seems very unlikely Republicans won’t take the House. The chances of taking the Senate are still decent. Can we please stop acting like the world is ending?
Once the results ACTUALLY come in, we need to take a hard look at what exactly happened here. I’d love to blame the polls but since I wasn’t using them, that would be silly. The results we have so far do cast a long dark shadow on the polling industry – this was pretty pathetic. But I was looking at other indicators that indicated to me that Republicans should expect significant gains.
Those gains may well still materialize. I still do not expect the Democrats to keep either the House or the Senate. But the margins are much smaller than I’d expected. Why?
Well, I don’t know – yet. Exit polling seems to show a shift in the electorate. If that were a last minute change, it might explain the margins, but two of the main issues the polls cite aren’t last minute and weren’t seeming to have much of an effect going into the midterms. I want to wait for full results then start really digging into the exit polls before drawing any firm conclusions.
Frankly, most of the info online right now is crap. Politico is trying to make it look less bad of Democrats which means they make cutesy and confusing charts. Still, they had the baseline numbers of seats which was better than some other outlets. I will go through the data once it’s more complete and not on Politico.
You’re wondering about cheating. I’m of the opinion that cheating has become endemic in blue strongholds but that is merely supposition. Okay, it’s supposition backed up by history and some weird elections that might be better explained that way, but still supposition. Widescale cheating? Stealing the election? I simply don’t know yet.
It’s tempting to assume so but it’s a bad habit to get into. If the electorate is changing, we need to understand that change and tilting imaginary windmills won’t get us there. If there is widescale cheating, then we need to prove it and fix it.
No, it’s not impossible. We didn’t lose and likely won’t. As of this writing, Republicans only need 7 seats to take the House and 2 to take the Senate. Democrats need 22 for the House and all three remaining seats in the Senate.
Do I still think the Democrat party will collapse? Yes. Celebrating ‘not a total slaughter’ is a pretty good indication that your party is on its way out. When? Dunno – I don’t have a crystal ball and there are factors at play that are way too unclear at the moment. Let the dust settle and we’ll see. Politics is slow, really slow, most of the time. The fast, dramatic stuff has long, long slow, lead ins. I see no substantial changes to make me question this conclusion at this point.
I’m still suspicious that the delayed results are mostly to take the wind out of Republican sails. It’s really weird that Florida, the ‘hanging chad’ state can count all its results in just a few hours but California, the ‘economy bigger than most nations’ state needs days. I’m aware that this could point to something more nefarious but could we wait until we know before we assume the worst?
What we do know is enough to cause some major issues in the Republican Party. The fewer seats that Republicans win, the more likely that they will be changing their leadership this next year. I’d say it’s more likely than not at this point. We’ll have to wait and see.
If it makes you feel any better, Newt Gingrich is also having a hard time figuring this out. And he’s been at this for years.
In the Twitter age, it’s hard to wait for results but wait we must. In the meantime, complaints to your congressman about the shoddy state of affairs that is making you wait might be a good substitute. Social media can be a useful tool.
It can also be a dangerous one – you’ll be hearing more in the coming weeks about China and Russia interfering in elections. Google and Big Tech will also be in articles below the fold. The media specializes in manipulating the public and they don’t want to have the amateurs revealing their secrets. Not that it will matter because that horse hasn’t seen the barn in years.
So we are in a very annoying period of hurry up and wait. Patience is a virtue.
But when the dust settles, we might want to work on the virtues of competency in elected officials because this delay is really stupid. This much I can tell you – Democrats can’t count worth a darn.
