If you think the coup attempt in Niger is unrelated to the Ukrainian War, you’re sadly mistaken.

We’re getting kinda used to the nuclear saber rattling. It barely gets a reaction any longer. But what, you ask, does a coup in Niger have to do with anything? Well, everything.

France has close ties to Niger. Niger is a former French colony. At the moment protestors are flying the Russian flag.

Russian?

Yep. As most of you probably know Russia’s pet militia, Wagner Group, is deeply embroiled in a number of African nations. This is part of the current international struggle to being relevant in Africa. Africa has natural resources and cheap labor making it attractive to developed nation states. Africa also lacks substantial infrastructure and political stability so it is very much a free-for-all. China, the EU and the US have the funds to invest but Russia has the willingness to sell military equipment to questionable actors, groups and nation states. On a politically insecure continent, that is a lot of influence.

So why the Russian flag instead of the Wagner flag? Because Wagner is doomed without a state sponsor. Mercenaries aren’t known for their ability to buy billions in military hardware. Wagner is no exception.

No, that doesn’t mean the Wagner coup attempt was some 4d chess move. Quite the opposite. The Putin regime is making the most of a bad situation. Putin would probably prefer to just shoot all the traitors but with a crumbling economy and a desperate need for experienced fighters, that’s not an option. Sending them back into Ukraine is also not an option. Leaving them idle in Belarus is beyond stupid.

But putting them to work in Niger? That makes perfect sense.

France is now on the hot seat. Do they support the elected government or just let the coup destroy the nation they have so much invested in? France doesn’t like either option. France’s political attention will now be on Africa and not NATO. Coincidence? Not a chance.

Russia is now in the position where it has something France wants. Don’t imagine for an instant that Russia won’t use that to pressure France to stop supporting Ukraine. Sounds like a brilliant move, doesn’t it?

It’s not. France was already under a ton of pressure. Left alone, it might just have decided to focus less on Ukraine. Now? France is royally PO’d at Russia. Worse, there’s a non-zero chance that Macron will benefit politically from a military intervention in Niger. Whatever France decides to do, withdrawing support from Ukraine won’t be on the list.

Sending a few extra tanks might be, however. Russia is using Niger to put pressure on France but France can also use Ukraine to put pressure on Russia – and a lot easier than by intervening in Niger.

This is not going to go well for anyone. It’ll be devastating for Niger. It’s going to be a massive headache for France. It’s going to be a pain in the backside for NATO. Mostly, it’s going to blow up in Russia’s face.

Instead of a proxy war, Russia is getting itself into a hot war. France, despite the fun we have at their expense, is no slouch. Wagner has never performed well against actual NATO forces in the very few instances where they have come into conflict. Failing to support Wagner will end up with another confrontation with Wagner at home, so that’s not on the table. But taking on a NATO member state ain’t cheap or easy and Russia’s resources aren’t infinite.

Will Russian forces fight French special forces? Nope. Russia will cave long before that becomes a thing. Wagner’s job is probably to create chaos and cut and run.

Huh? Why?

To create a second front, of a sort, for NATO. Basically, it’s a distraction that is big enough to require some reaction but not big enough to get a reaction Russia can’t deal with. That’s the theory. Practice? Well, we’ll see, but I’m not betting on Russia.

Russia’s only hope is that the West loses interest or decides the cost is too high. As long as NATO dumps munitions and weapons into Ukraine, Russian forces are stuck and being attrited along with untold tons of their own equipment. China is only willing to help Russia on the sly- and they are getting caught pushing the boundaries of violating sanctions as it is. Even if they were highly committed, and China isn’t, China is not coming to the rescue.

In fact, China is a threat to Russia. If Russia gets weak enough or is obviously about to fall, China may just decide to retake all those disputed territories and then some. China wants a direct connection to the Arctic so bad it can taste it. Russia’s eastern coastline will do nicely.

In the meantime, Russia’s economy is faltering. Selling oil at a discount does get some cash but very little. Russia does that more to keep the pipelines from freezing than to make money – the $60 per barrel limit is being observed and that only just covers production expense.

Which may explain why Russia dumped the grain deal. Russian grain and stolen Ukraine grain can be sold by Russia. Higher prices won’t hurt Russia’s coffers. It’s a balancing act – steep increases in prices will cause Russia to lose what little international support it has – mainly in Africa and the Middle East.

Which brings us back to another reason for Russia to use Wagner to stir up trouble in Africa. People in the middle of civil wars don’t notice that you screwed up their food supply. At least not right at first. If they conveniently start shooting each other, so much the better. Wagner slinks off and no one is surprised that their food prices sky rocket. Until order is restored and these folks decide starvation is a bad plan.

By which time Russia hopes NATO will have given up on Ukraine. Russia is also hoping that its very extensive, very expensive defenses will keep the Ukrainian counter offensive at bay. Not really working out for them as Ukraine has made consistent gains and is beginning to show some real progress. Plus they keep hitting Russia’s favorite bridge.

Oh, Russia’s not out, yet. But Russia’s flailing around is not confidence inspiring. A single Ukrainian breakthrough can stymie Russia for another year. NATO will keep the weapons flowing and will start to accede to Ukraine’s requests for longer range weapons and for permission to take the fight to Russian territory. You’ll notice NATO hasn’t protested much about those pesky drones that keep hitting Moscow’s buildings.

Russia wants to win. It doesn’t want to die. NATO is well aware that Russia is extremely unlikely to use nuclear weapons at all now. Russia will be a pain in the backside but it won’t destroy the planet.

It’s just a matter of time until the temper tantrum passes.