Yes, no and maybe.
I’m not being snarky. That’s the real answer right now. I know it’s not the answer you want but it’s the answer you need.
I started this blog/podcast/video thing because I was seeing so many people in comment sections scared to death of nothing at all. Make no mistake, Boomers weren’t as well educated as we should have been but we came out a lot better off than the generations behind us. Millennials and Gen Z didn’t have the experience we did of growing up around the Greatest Generation while in the middle of the Cold War. They lack our perspective and they were so poorly educated that they jump at every shadow.
People aren’t static. We Boomers learned the hard way that we had to leave college and go get jobs. That sentence doesn’t do justice to the culture shock that was to the Me Generation. But just as we learned, so can our kids and grandkids. They will learn because they have to. But maybe we can soften the blow a bit.
Which is why I’m not giving you my analysis of what did and what will happen. The situation is fluid – it can and likely will change. Worse, I’m not kidding that there is no worse job than analyzing Russian politics. I doubt Russian political scientists enjoy the task and I know no one else does. Russia is big, complex and so dang corrupt that the Mafia would have a hard time figuring it out. Russia is also almost OCD in their secretiveness. Pretty much for everything visible on the surface, there’s a ton more we can’t see.
That all translates to no one is sure what the heck is going on right now. The best Russian analysts are pulling out their hair as they prep their reports. EVERYTHING is preliminary.
And yet we have to try anyway. That’s why the TV is full of experts giving you their guesses. The ones to listen to are the ones that tell you what I did at the start – we don’t know yet.
Can we speculate meaningfully? Yes, to a degree. A LIMITED degree. Too many facts are missing to be able to assess the situation in Russia. But there are a few things we can be reasonably confident of at this point.
Whatever this was, it was bad for Russia as a whole. Highly secretive and highly corrupt do not add up to highly stable. Russia historically gets past that by using a strongman strategy. They let someone be in charge and ignore their government thereafter. Works for them until it doesn’t then they repeat the cycle. Of course that’s an oversimplification, but the gist is Russia is dependent on Putin as a strongman and this weekend’s events tore down that façade. Weakening Putin sets up Russia for more turmoil. Don’t put away the popcorn just yet.
Was it bad for Putin? Absolutely. His response was lackluster at the very least. This is unimportant internationally, but critically important inside Russia. Putin has options so don’t count him out just yet, but he will be rebuilding his powerbase and taking steps to protect himself from future embarrassments – IF he can. That remains to be seen. Pass the butter, please.
Was it good for Lukashenko? Maybe. I’m skeptical of the sudden ‘white knight’ act where Lukashenko saves the day. Did he make himself invaluable to Putin or did he win points with Prigozhin? Something else entirely? Is he just using the opportunity to make himself look good? I don’t know the answers to those questions and I don’t think anyone except MAYBE Lukashenko does. This is a wait and see part. We’re gonna need more salt.
Does this benefit Ukraine? Sure but we don’t know by how much. When your enemies start fighting each other it is always a good thing for you – but remember, when those enemies are siblings, they can turn on you again just as fast. This is the suspense part. I’m gonna need some Jordan Almonds!
Was it good for Prigozhin? Tentatively, yes or he wouldn’t have backed down. Prigozhin is a fairly astute political animal so while we can’t rule out that he just had a really stupid plan, we can suspect that there’s more in his hand than he’s shown yet. Ooh, this is the scary part! I’m going for more popcorn. Tell me when it’s over!
What about Wagner? Too early to say but don’t count them out yet. I’ve never been sure if they were the sidekick or the comic relief. I better get an extra large popcorn for this part.
Is it the West’s fault? STOP! I can’t eat and laugh that hard at the same time! Are you kidding? Russia got themselves in this mess all by themselves. Heck, they’d probably be better off if they really were up against NATO. At least the war would be over already.
What’s going to happen? I dunno, my crystal ball is in the shop. Seriously, it’s too early and we know too little for those kinds of assessments. I can see four or five reasonable possibilities and about twenty more unreasonable ones. I can only toss two or three that are too stupid even for Russia on her worst day. So no, we don’t know how this will all shake out.
How long will it take? This ain’t a video game – it takes as long as it takes. Russia could implode tomorrow or take months to straighten itself out again. I wouldn’t bet on that first one but I wouldn’t be surprised by it, either. Remember when I said the situation was fluid? It’s like guessing where the spilt milk will run to. You’re guaranteed to miss a few cracks.
The really real answer is we don’t know what’s happening or how it will end yet. You don’t need to be scared – this is just Russia being Russia. It’s not going to set off a nuclear war and it’s not going to result in a war with the US – those things take a LOT more than just this.
Don’t ignore it – that’s when the Russians get you, you know – but don’t be afraid of it, either. As it shakes out we’ll find out how it affects the West and Ukraine but don’t expect World War Three over keeping Putin in power. That doesn’t benefit Russia or Putin so we can be really sure that much is not going to happen.
Prigozhin as the new head of Russia? Putin starting a major purge? Russia trying to forget the whole thing? All possibilities with no way to assign probabilities – personally, I’m not rooting for the first two. Whatever happens, it’s probably going to be very interesting.
Extra butter, please!
