Dear Tim Pool, Love your work. You can relax though. We aren’t having a civil war in the US and we’re not going to have a nuclear war, or even WWIII. Love, QS

Y’all want details again, don’t you?

Here goes: Russia cannot beat Ukraine militarily unless NATO and the US quit sending stuff to Ukraine. Russia doesn’t have enough stuff on hand for a real mobilization and their guys have decided not to play the cannon fodder game. Ukraine is annoyingly refusing to give up. Worse, they are pretty good at figuring out how to use the stuff they do have to their best advantage.

Russia stinks at this game. So it is going back to the game it knows how to play – dirty tricks. Russia’s logic is that they would be winning if not for those meddling NATO kids. This is probably no longer true, but they are going with it. New game plan, a lot like the old one, break NATO.

There are claims that Russia is publishing fake polls showing a decrease in public support for Ukraine. I don’t even think this matters presently. Ukraine kicked Russian backside over the last month. People rarely stop backing winners without a really extremely good reason to do so. A downturn in the polls, even if it were real, wouldn’t begin to be enough to sway public opinion right now.

On to Plan B: blow things up. Ukraine damaged the Kersh Strait Bridge. Russia shot missiles at Kiev. I suspect all that accomplished is pushing up the timeframe for the delivery of Patriot and other missile defense systems to Ukraine. Now, as I’ve said many times before, I’m not a military analyst, but in my non-expert opinion, helping Ukraine get better defenses is not a good way to defeat Ukraine militarily.

According to Tim Pool there was some damage to the German embassy in Kiev.* My best guess is he thinks that because an embassy is sovereign territory this constitutes a direct attack on NATO.** Fun fact: no. It would have to have been a deliberate attack on the embassy and even then, it would be unlikely to activate Article Five. Most nations, including Germany, would assume that Russia just can’t shoot straight, probably even if the Russians claimed responsibility. Russian credibility is non-existent at this point.

And that brings us to Plan C: rattle the nuclear saber. Because nothing says ‘we’re desperate and please stop’ like threatening the kid that’s pummeling you with your big brother. If Putin can convince the public that there is a real chance of a nuclear attack, he’s hoping that will put enough internal pressure on member states that they stop supporting Ukraine. Magically, he hopes this ends his problem.

There are two problems with this. First, Poland. Poland has really stepped up to the plate. Part of that is very enlightened self interest – they are very aware that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Poland is very likely next on the list. Doesn’t matter if this is correct because its probable enough that Poland can’t ignore it. Hence, Poland won’t back down even if NATO fractures (which it won’t).

Second is the good ol’ US of A. We aren’t as disinterested as many of the critics would like to believe, most especially because of all the nuclear saber rattling. Letting Russia violate the nuclear taboo or even push that line endangers the US long term. Russia can’t invade the US but with ICBM’s, they don’t need to. If Russia becomes convinced that they can threaten nuclear attack without consequence it is not going to be long before they start to think they can use nukes without US response. That is a very dark path and we refuse to go down it.

The US will continue to support Ukraine and will ally with Poland alone if need be. This means that breaking NATO now does nothing. Ukraine already has enough stuff and support to hang on while the US and Poland scramble to rework supply lines. It would PO the US and NATO would have some long term major issues but it wouldn’t save Russia. All of which is moot – NATO shows zero signs of breaking.

Plan D: Freeze ’em out! Too little, too late. Europe is a mess and the US has its share of stupid problems but both share one important thing in common: they’re rich. Turns out, some problems can be solved by tossing more money at them. Plenty of natural gas suppliers more than happy to fill the void left by Russia and LNG plants can be built quickly if you are willing to pay the premium. Norway stepped up and the Baltic Pipe was completed in near record time. Germany won’t implode and while it will have issues over the winter Germany will come out relatively unscathed.

Especially compared to Russia.

Not sure what Plan E will be but I can tell you what it won’t be: nuclear escalation. Putin wants to preserve his power and starting a nuclear war is the exact wrong way to do that. Assuming he can. The Soviet Union had at least one close call that came down to a Soviet officer simply refusing to carry out the attack. He was right, the provocation wasn’t real. Point being the Soviets were a lot more likely to carry out an attack than the Russian Federation is. Modern Russians have much more to lose and Putin’s entire inner circle knows it.

They also have everything to lose and nothing to gain if Putin does something stupid. Putin is very much aware of this. It’s a part of the delicate brinksmanship that is normal Russian power politics. Trying to launch even a baby nuke could weaken Putin’s position enough to get him toppled. We’d find out a few days later when the new guy made the announcement – that’s how Russian politics do.

Suicide, however, is NOT how Russian politics do. You can come out of your bunker now.

By the way, do you have any of that Patriot oatmeal? Steven Crowder says it’s really good.

* The building was not in use.

** Upon viewing the entire video, this is not his position.