Just because it’s not the end of the world doesn’t mean we can take our eyes off the ball.

That’s important because international relations is just like a kindergarten but when nation-states throw tantrums they also throw very nasty things like bombs and bullets.

I know, everyone is wringing their hands over the coming of World War Three and nuclear annihilation and monkey pox and every other impeding form of doom. You can stop now. It’s okay. There’s not going to be a nuclear war because Russia wants to keep existing. It’s really that simple – of course proving it involves a dissertation or two – but you can relax. The world isn’t ending just yet.

In a way Boomers have a huge advantage here – we grew up in the Cold War. We’re used to foreign policy being the headline of the news cycle instead of the tail end. We’re not terrified of international tensions anymore than later generations fear the latest update for their smart phones. It’s just a part of life.

Which is easier for a cranky old lady to say than for folks to believe. Especially now.

The Boomers didn’t need a constant focus on the crisis of the century – we had the Soviet Union. Mind you, we also had The Population Bomb (spoiler – it wasn’t) and Global Cooling (yep, really – I remember this one), and an assortment of other crises du jour. But the Cold War was still front and center so we already had our circus.

Politicians, political leaders, world leaders and virtually anyone else who’s power and livelihood depend on keeping the public happy, and preferably out of the loop, all live by the same maxim: Bread and Circus‘. It’s a very old maxim coming from Ancient Rome and it’s just as true today as ever. A well fed, distracted public is no danger to ruling power. Keep ’em fat and happy and they stay out of your hair.

The astute among you will notice that their is a slight problem here with the idea of ‘government by the people’. Turns out leaders like power and are perfectly good with hanging on to it when John Q Public is napping.

In the West, the ‘bread’ is disguised in social welfare programs. The devil being in the details as always. But the circus has taken on a very strange life of its own. The constant state of earth shattering crisis. There’s climate change, the panicdemic and the incredible racism of Portland, Oregon (that’s where all the riots are, anyway). We have to DO something!

Quick, get Leonardo De Caprio on a jet! We’ll have a big conference to stop the emission of a gas that plants literally breathe! We’ll listen to a sixteen year old snarl ‘how dare you’ twenty times in a row! And we’ll throw untold billions at it! Regulate the cars! Trumpet the need of Carbon Zero (FYI – we’re made of carbon). How dare you deny the honor of our climate knights in jet fueled armor!

Then the Russians invaded Ukraine. Oh crap, we have to govern like grown ups again! Europe was caught flatfooted despite years of pretty obvious signs that they needed to be cautious. The White House Octogenarian in Chief at least remembers the Cold War well enough to know what side to be on – it’s something – but frankly if it weren’t for American foreign policy that was already in place from before the collapse of the Soviet Union we wouldn’t have a coherent foreign policy.

Any more skittish and the American reaction would be outright laughable. The Russians are barely holding their own against Ukraine. It’s the equivalent of the US having trouble winning a war against Fiji. The deck is kinda stacked and the Russians are still losing. But never fear – America won’t be provoking the Russian Bear. No matter how totally meaningless that ‘provocation’ might be.

We’re gonna provoke the heck out of China instead!

It’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen in foreign relations. Oh, I’m all for Pelosi going to Taiwan – it’s actually a good move. China needs taking down a peg or two diplomatically and Pelosi’s visit will accomplish that. What’s stupid is tiptoeing around Russia in the meantime.

I’m really wondering who’s running this circus while Biden is sleeping in Delaware. On the bright side, at least it’s an actual foreign policy crisis. On the not so bright side, when Juvenal spoke of ‘bread and circus’ ‘ he didn’t mean the kind with clowns.

Putin is just a dictator. They only come in size human. They do stupid things. They do predictable things. They put pants on one leg at a time unless they hire a valet to do it for them. Most of all, he’s a dad. No dictator, tin pot or otherwise, and no father, wants to be the idiot that destroyed their country. First off, nuclear wastelands don’t have cool statues of you. Second, dead kids are not something any parent wants to face.

This tells us that without REALLY MAJOR LEAGUE PROVOCATION Russia isn’t going to launch a nuke. The risk is too high and the gain is too low. So assuming whoever is running the White House can keep Joe from kicking the nuclear football literally, we’re good.

That doesn’t mean that the Russian Federation is our friend. It doesn’t mean China is our friend. It doesn’t even mean Russia and China are friends. It just means we aren’t facing a nuclear conflict despite the hype from the media and Russia’s very deliberate rattling of the nuclear saber.

However, it is time we faced the reality that Russia and China do not like the current international system. They both favor a system more conducive to their authoritarian ways. That gives them a common goal; it doesn’t make them good allies for each other. They are very definitely not allies of the United States or NATO.

Russia and China are the two big kids that want to knock down the sand castle while becoming king of the hill. There can be only one king of the hill, however, so they end up tussling with each other as much a they do with the West.

Nation-states may act like toddlers but never forget they fight with very deadly, very nasty toys. It’s a game but not a nice one. For the moment, Russia and China are trying to work together without looking like it. That benefits China and likely rankles Russia. It does not benefit the West. It’s naïve to think that Russia and China will play fair simply because that’s the very system they don’t like. Authoritarians are bullies at heart and no bully plays fair.

For now, however, we’re in a good position. Mind you, that’s just this quarter. The game is just starting. China is running defense for Russia, albeit not well. Those two are definitely up to something. There will be lots of cards pulled out of sleeves and double dealing and scheming and plotting. Real foreign policy has all the props of a Hollywood movie but with a LOT more long slow parts. Welcome to International Relations: a combination of kindergarten and assassins’ school.

Which is where we came in. Mind your back. Pay attention. And quit eating all the popcorn. Government by the people means we can’t just watch the circus.

We have to tame the lions.