There is absolutely nothing nail biting about this year’s midterms. Now, that doesn’t mean they aren’t important. heck, they are likely to be historic. But this is one of the very rare times when the outcome was predictable nearly a year ago. if you haven’t guessed, the Republicans win.
I’m aware of the polls because I keep up with guys who analyze them. The polls are doing exactly what was expected, showing some weakening leading into September and a resurgence shortly after. This is an artifact of crappy polling, not changing public sentiment. Only a few weeks out do media polls start paying attention to likely voters. I mean, sure, we care what the under twelve crowd thinks but polling them doesn’t tell you anything about voting behavior.
Okay, so it’s not quite that bad. They usually survey adults. Most are Americans. Some have even voted once or twice. But a substantial number are unlikely to vote in whatever is upcoming. Why do we care what they think about the election? We don’t. At all. It doesn’t matter since they won’t take any action to affect the outcome. But the media pollsters survey them anyway.
Why? Simple, a lot of them identify Democrat and that will skew the results. It makes Democrats appear stronger than they are leading up to the election. This is a feature, not a bug. Media polls are propaganda tools. People tend to want to vote for the winner if all things are equal. People who aren’t particularly interested in politics will be easier to sway by reporting that a given party or candidate is winning. so, if they are interested enough to do their civic duty and vote, polls showing the desired outcome can influence them to vote for that party or candidate.
This works when the electorate isn’t particularly riled up. It backfires when you have a volatile electorate that is voting because they are upset about something. Telling them the guys they are mad at are winning just makes them more determined to vote and to bring their friends with them.
Mind you, the media isn’t changing the results or lying about their findings. No, they are just polling in a way most likely to get the results they like without outright cheating.
Did you notice that the Democrats haven’t really pulled ahead all summer long? Even with the overturn of Roe v Wade that they were so sure would get out the masses to vote for abortion rights did little more than a minor splash in already heavily Democrat polls. They clung to the forlorn hope of retaining the Senate and dreamed of a blue wave riding in to save the day. The polls that most favored their delusions never matched them.
This is what we call very, very bad. Now pollsters are looking at likely voters and the picture is bleak. If the skewed results weren’t great I can’t imagine why they thought the real ones would be better. That red wave is real and it’s large, just in the polling. This does not end well for Democrat dreams of retaining power.
And it only gets worse from here. Biden’s approval is non-existent. The economy is heading south and in a big way. Blaming Trump has lost all its luster. The Jan 6 Hearings are a meme and not the kind that the Democrats wanted to see. Inflation up, employment down – these are the things that the semi-aware voter is very aware of – and guess who they blame.
I still think the polls are underestimating the Republicans. Not that the public has fallen in love with the GOP, they haven’t, but John Q. Public has had quite enough of sky high gas prices and rising inflation.
No one really wanted to vote for the purple haired crazies anyway.
