Okay, those of you that think this is a bad sign for the CCP and that China could collapse, you’re not wrong. Those of you who think China probably won’t collapse aren’t wrong either. Nation-states are resilient and this is not China’s first rodeo.

But it is their first ride on a bull this big.

So, what does it mean? Well, it means the CCP has pulled off something once believed to be nearly impossible – they have found the breaking point of the Chinese people under communist rule. That’s huge in and of itself. The Chinese people are, sadly, viewed as among the most docile. They have been through hell several times so cut them a LOT of slack here, but the majority of analysists seem to be of the view that the Chinese people will just take whatever the CCP dishes without resistance.

Tiananmen Square proved this point. The CCP slaughtered at least 241 people, injuring at least 7000, and arresting scores. Those are CCP estimates. Other estimates are much, much higher. In the aftermath, however, there was no general uprising and little known further unrest. Pre-Internet, it’s possible that word just didn’t spread quickly enough. In 1989 China was far from modern and even phone service may not have been at Western levels by that time. It’s also possible that in the wake of the crackdown, the Chinese people were too scared to continue any resistance. My personal suspicion is that the truth is a mixture of both. People who had grown up under Mao were likely none too keen on trying their luck against the system.

But this is now. Thirty years of prosperity, even if lots less than perfect, does not prepare your people for a return to poverty. Okay, the CCP puts it in prettier words like ‘common prosperity’ but most people, having seen the last two years of insanity and with their grandparents horror stories ringing in their ears are likely extremely wary of a return to communism. Capitalism with Chinese characteristics is pretty silly but it beats the heck out of the alternative.

By Western, protest at the drop of a hat, standards, the Chinese are practically glacial. They put the famed Russian stoicism to shame with the insane levels of crap they were willing to take. But unfortunately for the CCP, it turns out there is a limit.

Don’t get too excited. That limit may or may not have been reached. These protests may be all there is or they may be prelude to greater unrest. There is no way to know as these are uncharted waters for the Chinese.

That said, we’re seeing things rarely seen from Chinese protests since 1989. Calls for the end of the CCP. Calls for the removal or resignation of Xi Jinping. Even a few calls for freedom and democracy. That is massive – Chinese protests are extremely rare and they never use such strong language.

As I understand it, China is a collectivist society.. It just means people tend to emphasize the good of the group over the good of the individual. Whole lot of peer pressure to conform and a social norm to acquiesce to authority shapes a lot of present Chinese culture. Couple that with the enormous political oppression that is the CCP norm and after a few generations, you get a pretty docile public.

Which means you have to do something that is a REALLY special level of stupid to tick them off enough that they start protesting actively and confronting police. China is not Disneyland and public protest is a really good way to get yourself hurt and your life ruined. These folks are protesting anyway.

We in the West see that mostly as a positive – the Chinese people finally taking back their country. It is that, but it is also terribly, terribly sad. How hopeless do you have to feel to think that brutal repression is better than not acting out? I can’t even imagine. Long term, I can see how this could be the start to something wonderful but right now, it’s the result of one hell too many.

The West did more than its fair share of C19 insanity. Evidently, the CCP decided to prove that it could be more insane than any other group on Earth. Welp, they won. Not sure why they wanted to but the title of most insane Covid measures is all yours, CCP.

Zero COVID is absolutely asinine. The vaccines are a joke. The Chinese vaccines barely work at all. Worse, vaccine mandates weren’t even what they tried. Instead, let’s lockdown entire cities and test everybody repeatedly and make them wear masks while standing around in huge groups waiting to be tested. What could go wrong?

Everything. Quarantine against a seasonal respiratory infection is beyond moronic. I’ll discuss that in depth some time soon, but suffice it that everything the CCP did was counterproductive. Sure, the numbers when down, in the summer, when people don’t normally get colds – seriously, it’s a coronavirus, it acts like a cold virus because that is what it is. That doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous to those who are vulnerable but quarantine and masks are more like pouring gas and turning a fan on smoldering embers. Eventually, it blazes.

So, two years of this lockdown and testing nonsense with no end in sight and, no surprise to anyone who works disease control, inevitably the case numbers shoot up. No herd immunity and no vaccination program with a hope of long term success made that just a matter of time. Long confinement does bad things to immune systems making more people vulnerable to infection via casual exposure. Then they are confined with their families to provide long exposure. Gee, think there might be a connection here?

The Chinese people may not know why, but it’s impossible to hide the gargantuan failure of Zero COVID now. All that suffering for nothing and no offramp up ahead? That tinderbox was just begging to be set off.

On Thanksgiving Day, there was an apartment fire in Urumqi that killed at least ten people. The public blame the lockdown for the casualties as they believe people weren’t allowed out and failed to escape. It wasn’t the only bad news but it was the final straw. Protests erupted all over the country.

There have been protests in China before. The number and intensity are increasing despite previous crackdowns. Make no mistake, the CCP is a one trick pony and there will be crackdowns again. But that may just be throwing a match on a powder keg. We don’t know now. We have to wait and see.

But we don’t have to be idle. First, pay attention. Sunlight is always the best political disinfectant. The CCP doesn’t want foreign eyes on what they are doing. The more people watch new reports and videos about the protests, the more coverage they will get. The more coverage, the more restrained the CCP will try to appear.

Next, email your congressman. Follow this link to the House of Representatives website and this one for the Senate. Or just search for the House and Senate online – they are easy to find. Enter your zip and it will get you to your rep’s webpage. Follow the dotted lines and let your representative know that you want the US to support the Chinese people.

Third, talk to people. Let others know what’s going on and why it matters. You can do that in person or share articles and news reports on social media. Major protests in China are probably more interesting than last nights supper – just sayin’.

China’s future is up to the Chinese. We can encourage and support but the choices must be theirs. For now, the best thing we can do is keep attention on the protestors so that the CCP feels the full weight of international observation. That will scare the pants off the CCP – they have no frame of reference for actual people having an actual impact on government. The CCP needs the darkness of the world turning a blind eye – let’s not give them that.

So will China collapse? I think it will sooner rather than later. Is this the beginning of that collapse?

Only time and a lot of really brave Chinese people will tell.