So, that was fun, huh?

I waited to do this blog because it’s almost never useful to analyze fast moving events. When events are going fast, it’s best to rely on real reporters (the few that still exist) and let events shake out if at all possible.

That’s not to criticize commentators that weighed in earlier. I’ve found a lot of that commentary very useful. Special nods to Bill O’Reilly and William Spaniel (links provided below) for more measured and insightful commentary. For me, this thing needed some percolation before serving but good general rules are just general. Good for me and a whole bunch of half baked commentators (no links provided – everyone has their share of stupid days) but not necessary for O’Reilly, Spaniel and others.

So, let’s get to it!

Trump is not going to abandon Ukraine. Zelenskyy is not going to mess with the US. The whole thing will settle down and be mostly forgotten. You can stop panicking if you’re pro Ukraine and you can stop celebrating if you are anti Ukraine. This was both a major muff up – anyone’s guess who’s mistake at this point – and a minor tiff.

What made it weird was that it happened in front of the cameras. That was not Trump playing 4d chess or Zelenskyy being a jackass. Vance set off the fireworks and I’ll be talking about that next post. Nope, this was a heated discussion and they happen all the time. What they are NOT supposed to do is happen in front of cameras.

Who was at fault? Doesn’t matter. Will it get smoothed over? Yeppers, probably within a week or two – hard to say with how insane Trump’s schedule is right now. Is that a dig at Trump? Nope, have you seen how much stuff he’s done in the last six weeks? The man is busy! Is it important?

Well, depends.

As an event, no, it’s minor and they’ll kiss and make up – no, not literally. Eww, what’s wrong with you? As an indicator, oh heck yeah, Europe, Russia and China are all going into overdrive trying to milk out all the possible implications. Same thing the media did over the weekend but with better analysts. Going forward? Hard to say.

It may just be a tiny snowball at the crest of the hill. It may not ever really get rolling so it may never have any significant impacts. But then again, it may be a middle sized snowball near the bottom of the hill. Not much momentum but splashy when it hits bottom. This is what I suspect. What it isn’t is a huge snowball at the top of the hill – seriously, calm down guys.

Western Europe likes to talk. And talk, and talk and talk. They aren’t big on doing, just talking and writing regulations. This is one part of Europe’s overall stagnation. The possibility of the US withdrawing aid has never been real to the Western European leadership – until Monday. Even the relatively minor withdrawals – no, Ukraine won’t fall next week – blasted that leadership out of its complacency. This is a good thing long term but don’t get attached.

Why not? If Zelenskyy believed that he could get what he needs from Europe, he wouldn’t be so quick to try and patch things up with the US. Zelenskyy is a bit of a history buff – if something hasn’t worked historically, he’s not inclined to think it will work now. Europe has talked big since the invasion but it hasn’t delivered as well as it should and could have. Instead, it relied overmuch on the US and now can’t quickly come to Ukraine’s aid even if they were finally willing. Europe doesn’t yet have the industrial capacity to supply weapons and shells sufficient for an actual war.

Even if the blowup in the Oval Office was enough to blast Western Europe out of its complacency, they are a year or two from being able to really step up to the plate. That’s okay, it looks like they are finally on deck at least. But don’t be surprised if coach has to prod them from the bullpen a few dozen more times.

Russia is a whole different matter. Were they happy to see it happen? You bet and their media will be milking it for months, BUT just how stupid is Putin? I mean, I’ve overestimated him before. He was stupid enough to invade Ukraine in the first place. But is he really so dumb that he can’t see the potential for a snow job? No. Putin could be a total moron – he isn’t – but it wouldn’t matter. Putin is most definitely a Russian. Both vodka and paranoia run in his veins. So the important question is how is the Russian leadership actually viewing this?

I don’t know. Neither do you. Nor do the experts. Frankly, with only five days in, I doubt the Kremlin really knows. They are probably still in analysis mode. Being former Soviets, make that over analysis mode.

It boils down to whether Russia sees an opportunity or a set up. I couldn’t care less what the Russians are saying right now – let’s see what they do. That is going to tell us more than hours of debate and Russian talking heads ever could.

Does Russia’s view hurt Ukraine? Not yet and probably not at all. It’s way too early to tell and too many marbles are in play. When the shooter is Trump, it’s impossible to guess more than one step at a time.

Shooter? It’s the biggest marble in the game. You’ve never even seen a game of marbles, huh, whippersnapper?

What about China? They’ll be annoying jerks – the usual. No, I’m not kidding. China’s leadership is a pain in everyone’s backside most of the time but they are not stupid enough to poke the hornet’s nest with a short stick – they prefer to throw rocks from a distance. Will they invade Taiwan? Nope. Ever? Doubt it. Can’t promise but it’s a difficult thing for an experienced military which China doesn’t have and ships are amazingly easy for submarines to sink. China could have a bad case of the stupids but it’s more likely they will keep biding their time for now.

But they are having way too much fun laughing at this mess. It’s a bad plan for the Crybully nation. Keep being a jerk and, eventually, someone will punch that nose of yours. Trump doesn’t seem in the best of moods where international relations are concerned right now and China would be well advised to give him wide berth for the time being. Don’t worry, they won’t. Like the annoying little troublemaker that loves to start other people fighting, China can’t help itself. The tariff wars have already started.

But, but, won’t Trump just stop all the aid and walk away? Er, no. Haven’t you been paying attention? Trump never said anything about stopping all aid. Trump never said anything about backing Russia. What the man said was that he could get a peace deal. Trump rarely commits to things that he doesn’t fully intend to get done. Trump wants a peace deal and that’s exactly what he plans to get.

Zelenskyy and Putin both be darned.

Of course, it’d be a lot easier if Trump didn’t need to deal with either Zelenskyy or Putin but them’s the breaks. Trump needs Zelenskyy to put pen to paper when the details are ironed out. He also needs Zelenskyy to shut up for now. He’ll likely get that second one but that deal is going to have to be pretty sweet to get that first one.

Zelenskyy has a weak hand, as Trump pointed out, but that’s not the same as no hand at all.

Same is true about Putin. Only Putin can sign off on a deal for Russia. If Putin would keep his trap shut Zelenskyy would be less of a gadfly. But before you feel too sorry for Trump, the man wrote the book on negotiating – literally.

Regardless of the meltdown, Trump wants that deal. He’ll accept Zelenskyy’s apology even if it’s a weak one. He needs Zelenskyy and he’s made his point about how tough he can be if he needs to. Zelenskyy is no fool; he got the message. They will make nice and sign something. The process will continue.

For all his bluster, Trump isn’t a jerk. He isn’t an idiot, either. It’s not a good deal if one of the parties loses. Win win or you’ll get nothing at all. So, no, Trump won’t abandon Ukraine unless he absolutely has to.

Which he will not let happen. Trump said he could get a deal. He will do that because his reputation is on the line. After all, he wrote “The Art of the Deal”. It’d look bad if he couldn’t make a deal he said he could.

And he probably honestly does want to stop the violence. Trump by all accounts can be a really nice guy.

But not across the negotiating table.

Reference Links:

Bill O’Reilly: https://www.billoreilly.com

William Spaniel: https://www.youtube.com/@gametheory101