Short answer: no.

Long answer – oh please, as if war weren’t serious. If you’re not serious, don’t invade.

Having the best military on the planet does you no good if the political war is already lost. I’m an American – ask me how I know and try to keep a straight face.

In my political opinion, Russia lost this war on February 24, 2022, the day they were stupid enough to invade. Despite all protests to the contrary, Sweden and Finland had been NATO compliant for decades so that they could join NATO the first chance they got. Ukraine was no military threat. Invading Ukraine PO’d all of Europe, the US and half of Russia’s allies once it became obvious this wasn’t going to be quick. All of that was 100% predictable. The response was just as predictable.

Ukrainians picked up guns rather than Russian flags. The West and much of Eastern Europe dumped every bit of dusty equipment they could into Ukraine. NATO did everything but come out swinging. Germany started up its coal plants. These people are NOT going to let Russia win. There was never any real chance of that.

It seems to have taken Russia seven months and one really major battlefield reversal to figure that out. Well, crap, now what do we do? Can’t launch nukes because that will start a fight we really can’t win. Running out of munitions because the Ukrainians keep blowing up our depots. We’re already running an offensive, not that you can tell. More Iranian drones? Hasn’t made much of a dent as yet and they aren’t that big on credit. More tanks? On the way but we already sent the good ones and they keep getting their tops blown.

Well, tuck tail and run didn’t work so well. Okay, it worked great for the guys doing it and even better for the Ukrainians getting all the stuff left behind, but if we pull out we’ll lose the Donbass and probably Crimea. More importantly, we’ll look like weaklings. Oh, yeah, and Putin will probably lose power.

So, what to do? I guess its time to fight like good old fashioned Russians! If we can’t win with strategy and equipment, we’ll win with bad weather and dead bodies! Toss enough cannon fodder at them and they will eventually run out of bullets! It will be glorious! Just like the good old days!

Hey, why is everyone suddenly leaving Russia?

The Russian governments have never been picky about whose dead bodies they use. It’s not merely the lack of real support for the ‘special military action’ that is keeping patriotic Russians from volunteering. It’s the fact that Russia invariably takes insanely high casualties even when they are winning. Strangely, it’s really hard to talk your loyal sons into becoming cannon fodder for Mother Russia.

Sure, if Russia can field a few hundred thousand fresh troops, that will be a game changer. The big question is IF. Even if the male population of Russia weren’t suddenly visiting non-existent relatives in any country that will take them, Russia doesn’t do ‘training’ particularly well. It lacks the facilities and the infrastructure. There’s increasing evidence Russia is running short of basic equipment – I mean, even more short than they already were.

Now, I’m no military analyst but I’ve played enough RPG’s in my life to know that showing up with lousy gear, no will to fight and no equipment worthy of the name just makes you a tasty snack for even a baby dragon. The Ukrainians are battle hardened and increasingly well equipped. I’m no expert but this doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me.

I mean, it didn’t work in World War I. Turns out sending lots of men to charge down machine guns gets you lots of dead men.

Okay, I’m making it sound easier than it likely will be. Lots of guys is an advantage – or can be. At the very least, it can wear down your resources dealing with them.

Assuming they actually can and will fight. Some will, certainly, but most of the guys who wanted to fight in Ukraine are already there. Dragging in guys who don’t want to be there and are only fighting to keep from being shot by their own guys doesn’t seem like a recipe for excellent soldiers.

So, will it work? If it doesn’t work on the battlefield and quickly, it can’t turn things around politically. Massive mobilizations call for a lot of manpower just to carry them out. That gets tripled when they are sparking massive protests as well. I gotta admit, sending the protestors to the front is hilarious – if you are trying to lose. Getting 300,000 or more men aimed in the right direction and equipped to take on a battle hardened force requires a lot in terms of know how and resources. It’s an open question as to whether or not Russia can even do this.

And if it can, whether or not it will be fast enough to make the difference they need. That, I very much doubt.

Welcome to the top of the ninth!