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Being a commentator comes with the advantage that you don’t have to write a dissertation. The disadvantage is that you will have more than your fair share of foot in mouth disease. Be sure to keep those tootsies clean and have a lifetime subscription of Listerine.

Haley’s campaign manager is criminally incompetent. She has zero shot of defeating Trump after a third place finish in Iowa and a poor second place in New Hampshire. What are they expecting going into a Trump stronghold like South Carolina?

I still want words with this idiot – not nice words so I won’t preview them here.

The astute will notice that this is the exact opposite of what I expected after Iowa. I figured DeSantis would be the one to stick suicidally in the running but he dropped out immediately after Iowa. Haley is the one I thought would have the good sense to drop out and she’s heading for South Carolina.

The primaries are a formality. The race is over. Trump is the nominee regardless of whatever fantasy the Never Trump Club is reading. There simply aren’t enough primaries that Haley could conceivably win to make a difference. Frankly, she probably can’t win several of the ones that might have gone her way had there been a serious primary fight.

Most of the Republicans that would have voted for her are probably not going to either turn out or vote for her. If her campaign is counting on crossover from the Democrats, they are fooling themselves. Democrats aren’t energized half as much as they were in 2020. Their turnout won’t be impressive in their own primaries. It won’t translate into an upset for Haley against Trump.

I kinda like Haley and I feel a bit sorry for her, but to be fair, she bears the responsibility for being unable to read the writing on the wall. There is no path to a 2024 nomination. She’s got as much of a set up for 2028 as she’s going to get. I expect she is feeling pressure to stay in from both her campaign and her financial backers who are more concerned about beating Trump than positioning their candidate.

Staying in is still stupid.

Look, being a candidate for your PARTY is an honor. There comes a point when the party’s interests must take precedence. Not because it’s a political party but because that party represents millions of likeminded – more or less – people who have an interest in having candidates that represent their interests elected. If that’s you, awesome, be honored and do your best. If it’s the other guy, take the loss graciously, help your party win and come back swinging next time.

So I was wrong about which of the runners up would hang on pointlessly but right about who the winner would be. Yay, me.

Being real, you aren’t listening to me or watching this silly video because you expect me to mess up all the time. You expect me to be right more often than not and you have every right to the expectation. But if you are expecting perfect accuracy on predictions from anyone, you’re gonna spend a lot of time being disappointed.

Best anyone can do is their best and to own up when they make a mistake.

Why I’m telling you that, besides to own my own mistake, is that all I ever hear online is confused people asking how they are supposed to tell good information from bad. Turns out life doesn’t come with a textbook and most these kids have no idea how to process information. Modern education fails again. Well, I can’t correct all those failures in one post but I can show you the basics.

The only weapon you have is that grey matter between your ears. Use it wisely and charitably. 

But back to our intrepid candidates. DeSantis shouldn’t have run at all – he already had the positioning for 2028. But bowing out the way he did and endorsing Trump was the smart move. We’ll be seeing DeSantis again. He has four years to straighten out Florida and that’s enough time for most folks to forget the silly 2024 campaign.

Haley, I don’t know. She should have dropped out after Iowa but hanging in until New Hampshire wasn’t too stupid. Oh, it was pretty stupid but not insurmountably stupid. She’s taking a big risk staying in for South Carolina. That loss is guaranteed to be even worse than New Hampshire. Survivable long term? Probably but it’ll hurt her 2028 prospects. If she continues after a third loss, she’s toast.

If I were her campaign manager, I’d advise her to drop out and start campaigning for Trump. Not merely an endorsement, but active support, and her very best effort. She NEEDS a position in his administration if she’s going to have an elected office in her future.

And no, not just to please Trump – I doubt he cares. But his base most certainly does care. For them, the fight is not just against Biden but against the elitist forces in the Republican Party. Conservatives, populists, Evangelical Protestants, and others that make up Trump’s base were courted for decades by the Republicans, going back into the 1980’s. It’s far too late to run them out of the gentleman’s club. The old school Republican Party is gone and it’s new base is no longer willing to be denied.

Translation: backing Trump is backing the rank and file. Win them over and you have a golden political future. Lose them and the party will be burned down around your Ivy League ears, capisce?

Moderate Democrats, the few left, are equally fed up with their insane excuse for a party. The conditions are perfect for the emergence of a third party that takes the place of one of the two majors. It’s happened before, more than once, in American politics. It will happen again. Whether it happens now to the Republicans depends on just how leadership handles the party rank and file.

Encouraging Haley to stay in the race past Iowa was a very bad sign for the future of the Republican Party. Will it take down the leadership or the whole party? Dunno, we’ll see.

What I do know is you can’t have a democratic anything – republic or parliament – without the support of the people. Not the few but the many. The guys with blue collars and dirty boots as well as the guys with dress shirts and ties. Both/and, not either/or is how democracy works.

Trump is a bit of a force of nature himself and should not be underestimated. But Trump is a whirlwind compared to the hurricane that is behind him – those ordinary, working folks who refuse to be taken for granted any longer by either party. Messing with Trump is messing with them.

Those are the people you want to represent as president, Mrs. Haley. You need to win them over by showing your willingness to represent their interests and to hear their voices. When you attack Trump you miss the mark. Trump isn’t the problem; the disaffected base is. When you attack Trump, you attack them. When you attack them, you defeat yourself.

Seriously, gal, smarten up. Either met the base where they are or find a different base to represent. Drop out graciously, campaign for Trump, and start rebuilding your political future.

And for pity’s sake, fire that idiot campaign manager of yours!