Before you ask, yes, this has to do with American politics and yes, it’s Wednesday.

I’m not suggesting for an instant that Putin didn’t order the invasion – of course he did. Russia would have lost a LOT more generals and not in Ukraine had they invaded so much as a Mickey D’s without Putin’s say-so.

What I am going to tell you is that events have gotten well away from Putin’s control. From the point of view of his personal power, Putin has backed himself into a corner so tightly that he has only one out – and that’s straight through a very PO’d Ukraine.

Even if Putin were willing to put aside his personal needs – and that’s not totally implausible at his age even if it is incredibly unlikely – Russia is pretty well screwed. Over the next few months there will be a lot of noise about ‘peace’ but not a peep about ‘pull out’. If Putin can convince the West that they can just throw him a bone – you know, 20% of a sovereign nation that isn’t theirs – he will go home like a good boy and never be a problem again, then Russia wins.

To accomplish that Putin has to convince a badly burned Europe and an extremely annoyed US that giving into his blackmail just this once will be enough. If you think Putin can pull that off, I have a bridge to sell. Lovely ocean view in the mountains of Tennessee, she’s a beauty and I’m willing to let her go really cheap.

See, Putin screwed up in several ways. He totally misread the West and especially the US. To be fair, we’re that crazy neighbor family that you can never decide if they are having a party or if you should call the cops before they kill each other. Still, Putin blew it. Worse, he misunderstood even the former Soviet satellites and just how much they do NOT like their bearish neighbor to the East. Invading Ukraine was about as smart as using a hornet’s nest as a piñata.

To top that off, Putin had a ‘hold my beer’ moment. He used the N word – no, not that one. The N word that national leaders must never, ever, ever speak: nuclear. It’s so internationally taboo that even hinting at it will get you uninvited to all the best rubber chicken events and get your ambassadors hauled into their respective countries to be yelled at for a few hours.

You do not say the word. You do not hint at the word and you sure as HECK don’t imply actual nuclear war. Unless you are Putin, and having backed yourself into an unwinnable corner, decide to make yourself totally irrelevant.

Wait, you say, wouldn’t that threat make Putin more relevant?

Nope. Nuclear weapons are only useful as deterrents. They make really bad threats because if your bluff gets called, you can’t use them. Make no mistake, Russia had its bluff called. No, not the Cuban Missile Crisis kind of face down, much more subtly but every bit as sure. Russia kept drawing blurry lines and kept ignoring the fact that those lines were crossed. Ukraine has hit targets in Russia.

Would Russia go literally ballistic if Ukraine invaded Russia? Probably not because the US would beat them to it. Ukraine is on a fairly tight leash and has been from the start. We’re happy to send Ukraine all our old munitions – saves us from having to have them dismantled – and even a few bright shiny HIMARS just to keep Russia out of our hair. But the instant Ukraine mounts an actual invasion of Russia the US will be Ukraine’s biggest worry, not Russia.

All that assumes Ukraine is insane enough to attempt an invasion. Yeah, no. Not the sanest bunch but that’s part of what makes them good fighters – sane people leave when bombs start falling.

Russia has had its actual territory attacked – hint, don’t use your towns as military depots, Russia – and no nukes. They’ve lost territory they claimed was Russian forever within Ukraine and – big surprise – no nukes. At this point I’m not actually sure an outright invasion of Russia would trigger a nuclear response.

It won’t happen – like I said, Ukraine isn’t that stupid and the US isn’t interested in acquiring any Siberian ocean fronts. But shy of a US led invasion, Russia is on the nuclear wagon.

Putin can’t use nukes. He can’t win without one of three things: a major pause, another mobilization and some serious resupply – and maybe not even with all three. Putin can’t declare victory and go home because he has no way to retain the territory – even drunk hardliners will notice a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine and will not take it well. There’s zero chance of a negotiated settlement – Ukraine knows what they have Russia by and the Ukrainians aren’t letting go.

I believe the term is ‘stuck’.

So, what do you call a national leader that literally has no moves left?

Irrelevant.