I know, normally I talk American politics on Friday. Well, that’s what I’m doing. Hang on, you’ll see – but first I need to kill off the stupid elephant in the room.
To the best of my knowledge the ‘NATO expansion problem’ theory originates with Mearsheimer . I’ve heard him give one talk about it. It seemed a well reasoned position and he argued it compellingly. Before the invasion, it made a great deal of sense. It just happens to be wrong.
This kind of thing happens all the time. Mearsheimer isn’t an idiot nor is he a bad analyst. He just got it wrong. I think because he did miss something obvious – obvious however, for those of us a little less tied to the realism school. No, I’m not saying being realistic is wrong. I’m saying humans often substitute cynicism and jaded expectations for actual realism.
Any school of thought can become a set of blinders. It’s not unique to Realpolitik.
I think Mearsheimer missed two things: the danger Ukraine uniquely posed to Putin’s power and just how insignificant NATO had made itself. Yes, I know what Putin said – and I’m sure NATO was somewhere on the list of reasons to invade Ukraine. But it wasn’t at the top as Putin would have us believe.
Ukraine itself was a far greater threat than NATO.
You finished laughing? No, no, why would I be mad? Twelve months ago, I’d have agreed with you. But I am primarily interested in domestic politics so twelve months ago, I wasn’t exactly up to speed. Now that I am, let me explain.
Besides the separatist regions, there is a HUGE amount of interconnectivity between the Ukrainian and Russian people. They not only share a big chunk of history but they are also kin in the literal sense. About one quarter of Ukrainians have Russian relatives. Probably twice that know Russian people well enough to be actual friends, not just people you send Christmas cards to once every few years.
This interconnectivity make Ukraine the threat that the Baltics could never be. It’s not the land mass and population – although they matter – it’s the relationships that the common folks share. Those are dangerous to Putin.
The reason is simple – friends and family talk to each other. That’s fine and dandy as long as Ukraine is following Russia on a leash, but it’s not at all okay when Ukraine starts to head westward. As Ukrainians start to get more entangled with the Western nations, they get funny ideas about freedom and democracy. But that isn’t the big problem.
Allying with Russia is something nation-states do when they are desperate or too close to the border. Simple reason, it isn’t usually greatly beneficial economically. Allying with Western Europe and the United States, however, has a tendency over time to improve economies both with access to the West’s huge markets and with those funny ideas beginning to bear fruit and people becoming more economically mobile.
That’s not a fast process – ask Eastern Europe – but it does happen. As it happens, standards of living increase. THAT is the deadly danger to Putin’s power. Cousin Iliana in Ukraine tells Cousin Vlad about her new washing machine and that she plans to buy a dryer soon. Vlad begins to wonder why all his Ukrainian kin can have such luxuries while he’s trying to get by on 500 rubles a month like everyone else he knows in Russia.
Those funny ideas and disparities in standards of living aren’t dangerous when in Estonia – no one has an Estonian cousin anyway – but they are infectious if they take hold in Ukraine.
There was no actual chance of Ukraine joining NATO in the immediate future last February. Russia knew that. Russia had already caused that – hence all the agitation and military supplies to the Donbas. NATO in and of itself didn’t matter anyway. NATO did nothing when Russia illegally took Crimea. NATO doesn’t defend non-member states. NATO won’t take members with border disputes. Russia knew all of that.
The Baltics might be a pain in the backside to defend but they aren’t insignificant. If NATO wanted to push against Russia, it had member states on the Russian border. NATO didn’t even try. Most member states are behind on their financial commitments. NATO wasn’t the cool kid anymore and wasn’t all that interested in being the cool kid. Left alone, NATO would have had several serious internal issues to wrangle with and Russia knew it.
What’s that saying? Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake? Napoleon must not have sent Russia the memo because invading Ukraine did exactly that. NATO had its own internal issues and they were just going to get worse. Alliances do that when they aren’t sure they still have a reason to exist. Well, NATO has a reason now!
No, NATO expansion was a convenient excuse. Ukrainian politics were the real major reason. The more western Ukraine leans, the worse for Putin in particular. Putin is a strongman and his government behaves in certain ways as a direct result. Corruption is a convenient leash on power. Sounds weird, but it works like this: every official is corrupt because corruption is not only tolerated but becomes part of the system. So any official getting uppity can be brought down quickly by being charged with the corruption that they had been encouraged to commit.
Great for maintaining power, lousy for building militaries, economies and societies. All the corruption hollows out the economy. Over time, Cousin Vlad is just glad to get his 500 rubles this month.
Until he hears from Cousin Iliana. Nothing like a reality check to make people wonder why exactly the idiot in power is in power. Secret police and expressive measures only work as long as the malcontents are few in number. But there are millions of Vlad’s with Ukrainian relatives and tens of millions that have some strong connection to Ukraine. When EVERYBODY knows that they are being cheated, there’s little that can be done to stop the inevitable coup.
NATO was no threat to Putin’s power. But Cousin Iliana certainly was.
