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Yes.
Oh, you wanted the why part? Why didn’t you say so?
Russia wants to be the sole superpower. Russia is going to be a pain in the neck until it either gets what it – and no one else sane – wants or until it gets smacked hard enough to come to its collective senses. We seem to be in the middle of that latter one with Ukraine right now.
Let Russia bash its brains out on Ukraine. I know it sounds harsh but it’ll do Russia a world of good. Seems to be helping Ukraine straighten out some of its kinks as well. Win win!
No, it’s not that simple – nation states seldom make anything simple. Russia is not the only country vying to replace the US as sole superpower. In this corner we have China. China is presently playing the belligerent cry bully. That’s for a variety of reasons, mostly the CCP can’t buy its way out of the mess it has made. Be that as it may, China has been beating the heck out of the war drums to threaten Taiwan into returning peacefully to captivity. Yeah, it’s not working.
China has managed to scare Viet Nam and the Philippines into security deals with Japan and the US – and yes, that’s extremely counter productive. This is where Ukraine becomes important. China is convinced it is better than everyone else – especially Russia and the US. Okay, it has some doubts about the US but definitely better than Russia which has more combat experience and military equipment than China can shake a stick at.
The same Russia that is losing a war of attrition with a tiny neighboring nation state that is only receiving funding and equipment in aid. China expected Russia to get hurt if it got into a real fight with the US but Ukraine? Heck, Ukraine didn’t even expect that and those guys all major in Overconfidence.
China has had to rethink this whole invading Taiwan thing. Oh, they never really wanted to have to do it but they were fully confident the US would just watch and Taiwan would be easy pickins’. Taiwan is 100 miles from Mainland China by SEA. Amphibious assaults are the worst – ask the guys that landed on Omaha on D Day. Russia can’t handle a land invasion – China is no longer confident that they can ‘safely’ invade Taiwan.
Thanks, Ukraine!
So now you’re all mad. ‘Why do we have to be the World’s Policeman’? If Russia and China wanna rule the world, let them sort it out. We shouldn’t have to worry about all this stuff.
You’re that kid that never wanted to brush his teeth, aren’t you? How’d that work out? How many fillings did you need before you figured out that just brushing twice a day was a lot less hassle?
No, I’m not really being facetious. The US is pretty self reliant and very secure – two oceans make invading a true nightmare – but it’s not the only kid on the block. Truth is, being a hermit is not nearly as much fun as it seems when you’re mad about having to do homework. It’s even worse when you’re a nation state. Much, much worse when you’re the world’s sole superpower.
Think about it this way: you live in Podunk Country, population 10 million, main export construction grade sand. Podunk won’t be breaking any economic records but it has a lot of sand and the government is pretty okay. You like all the people – except that one guy – and its home. Low regulation, low unemployment and decent education – not a bad little developing country. Your kid wants to go to college in the US and you have a management job at Sand Haulers. Life is good.
Until Russia shows up and deports you to Siberia.
Nope, not kidding. They call that one ‘russification’. The Russians deport natives of the nation they invaded and repopulate with ethnic Russians.
How many Podunks before the current border crisis looks tame by comparison to the hordes streaming to the US, begging for asylum? Not many, I assure you.
Yes, for the record, China has its own version using ethnic Han Chinese. So no, having China win doesn’t improve things.
Even if the miracle occurs and the winner of the ‘Take Over Earth’ contest decides to leave the US very much alone, the rest of the planet will be running for the borders. The only way to stop them will be to become the monster we hate. I vote no.
But the miracle won’t occur. Sooner or later, the totalitarian winner will come knocking on our door. We will have to have spent ten times what we presently do on defense to keep that monster at bay – no, I’m not kidding. Nukes are the only option. They are expensive all the way around. Building one is the cheap part. Refining the uranium and maintaining the delivery systems – ICBMs, bombers and submarines – are REALLY, REALLY expensive.
Yes, we pay all that stuff right now. But we also have allies across the globe that let us ‘forward deploy’ – military speak for they let us build bases so we don’t have to haul everything from North America every time we do something. That buys us more than cheaper transport – it buys a lot of local good will. Sure, you hear about the times things go wrong – that is inevitable – but you don’t hear about how solders help out locals or even just buy stuff from them, helping the local economy.
This seems a little thing but it pays big dividends. Every nation state, every culture, every ethnic group, every little kid that remembers how the Americans gave them candy – every positive adds to the US’ enormous soft power. It’s also one less nation state we have to build nukes to target. Instead of needing tens of thousands of nukes as we would if we were isolated, we can get by with just nearly 6000. Better yet, the chances we ever have to use the things stay very close to zero.
The chances we have to actively target countries worldwide with nukes and fire them get very close to 100% if we’re the only free nation left on the planet.
Seriously, just brush your teeth already!
For the record, we’re more like the World’s Hall Monitor than its policeman. Heck, we’re just handing the baton to Ukraine at the moment.
Not because we’re being jerks – well, not intentionally, anyway – but because letting Russia self destruct is for the best. While the chances of a nuclear exchange are slim at the moment, having American piloted F 35’s screaming over Moscow would increase those chances significantly. Arguably, a conflict with the US would begin and end over Europe but ironically, that could be a saving grace for Russia – a quick loss might well be more sustainable for the regime than the slog they are presently in.
But letting Russia wear itself out over Ukraine while we push our older stuff across the border will likely end the present regime. It may end 500 years of Russian aggression – Russian history reads a lot like a skipping record. What’s certain is that Russia’s superpower plotting will come to an ignoble end.
It will very likely take China’s asperations with it.
Oh, the world won’t magically become all sweetness and light, but the problems will be more spread out and handleable for a few decades at least.
That’s when it will be safest to step down as Hall Monitor, if we still want to. At the very least, we can take a nap or two.
Until the next round of fun begins.
