My best assessment is that the race is his to lose. I think Trump would have to actively sabotage his own campaign to lose at this point. However, last I looked, I am not omniscient so I could, in fact, be wrong.
Not that I’m going to let that stop me. If you wanted omniscient, you’d be praying to the Almighty, not reading my little blog, or watching a silly eagle in a BBQ apron while I ramble on.
Now that we’ve established that neither of us is stupid enough to think any prediction is anything but a well educated guess, let’s get this party started.
Trump filled Madison Square Garden Sunday night! A political rally in usually unreceptive territory filled a major venue to overflowing. Forget the stupid polls, THAT’S a campaign about to nail the landing!
No, I’m not making too much fuss about it. Look, I’m a political geek and I LIKE this stuff, but I’d rather have teeth pulled than attend a political rally. It’s a bunch of speeches and a lot of hurrahs. They are not most people’s idea of fun. Rally goers are usually the dyed in the wool base and the curious. No one plans their summer around rally schedules, including the dyed in the wool base. So when a candidate consistently attracts large rally crowds, it’s something.
Packing Madison Square Garden is boss level something!
The polls remain inconclusive. Yeah, sorry to burst your bubble but polls that never get outside the margin of error aren’t ‘tied’ or ‘tight’, they are just inconclusive. We have no idea where the real numbers are and given how erratic the polling has been, there’s no reason to trust the things. Even good pollsters get bad results sometimes.
It just doesn’t matter. Trump attracts crowds and audiences. Harris attracts celebs and crickets. No one is voting for Beyonce and her ability to attract a crowd is irrelevant.
Harris’ campaign was true to form and didn’t pay the nice lady for an actual performance. The rally went quickly downhill, so I hear. Even if it went as wonderfully as the fawning Lamestream Media would have us believe, it does not matter. Harris has never had a large rally crowd without celebrities actively participating.
Trump draws a crowd at McDonalds.
Sure, it was a campaign stunt but it was one that people liked and enjoyed. No one minds obvious stunts when the stunts aren’t played up as real. Donald Trump walks into a Mickey D’s and asks for a job? You needed no hint that the campaign was playing to the working class. And it was hilarious.
Not everyone that attends a rally will end up voting for that candidate but the majority of them will. That majority is representative of a lot more folks that will vote for the candidate but couldn’t or wouldn’t attend the rally. Like polls, they give us a kinda dingy window into what the American people have in mind. Also like polls, you need a healthy grain of salt to take with the rally attendance numbers.
We humans do like our numbers. Pity we stink at collecting them. Data collection is real science – you know, the boring part everyone hates? Point being, never get too excited about any number.
But packed crowds at Madison Square Garden without a sporting event? Not even one tiny boxing match between a couple of grade schoolers in comically huge padding? For a political candidate? That’s one for the record books even a week away from the election.
Oh, we like election events but since TV took first place from events as ‘stuff to do’ rallies haven’t been the huge draws they once were. We no longer have whole towns turn out for a candidate then turn out for the other guy when he comes through. Modern rallies play more to the base and the curious. They rarely draw huge crowds, let alone fill Madison Square Garden.
Especially not for an opposition candidate. New York is supposed to be solid blue, remember? Those attendees couldn’t have all been out of towners. Not to mention the turnout Trump received from the Bronx back in May.
Feeling a little purple there, New York?
Seriously, I think Illinois has been in play since March and New York since June. Last week I would have said that I didn’t expect either state to flip but now, I’m not so sure. I wouldn’t predict such an event but I wouldn’t be surprised by it, either. I think New York will actually be a tight race. One or more of the solid blue states could actually flip.
Reagan levels of flips? Probably not is the safe answer but Trump is insanely popular and Harris is only barely tolerated by her own party. I doubt Trump breaks 400 in the Electoral College but he very well may break 350.
No, that’s not all based on the Madison Square Garden rally. I do look at the inconclusive polls – y’all should know, I’ve bored you silly explaining the things. The erratic behavior of the polling agencies make me think something is going on behind the scenes. The increasing irrationality from the Lamestream Media also indicates Harris is failing. Jake Tapper had his head handed to him by JD Vance because he did stupid stuff and even MSN called Tapper out. Democrat candidates are claiming Trump connections in their ads.
Et cetera, et cetera. There’s ample evidence Trump is winning. I think the totality indicates a huge Electoral College win.
We’ll find out in eight days. Seven by the time I get this posted.
Hurtling down the final stretch, Terminator Trump is pulling away from Hyped Up Harris. Two lengths, three lengths… Here they come folks!
Tune in next week to find out who wins.
Right after you vote!
