I wrote a post with this title back in May. Things happened and I didn’t get around to publishing it. You can find it and the audio at the bottom of this page. Sorry, audio and video folks, you can only see it on Quill Sword dot net, link in the description. It’s probably worth a read but you’ve already seen the ending.

Back in May, my answer to the question of whether or not Trump will win was probably. We’re now just over three months from the general election and my answer is still probably.

It’s a lot like handicapping a horserace when all the horses are zebras. Where do you even start with such an insanely weird field?

Lawfare, dementia, assassination attempt, candidate ouster, Manchurian candidate – seriously, is this an election or a movie plot?

I mean, it’d be a really bad movie. No one would believe it. Maybe if you threw in a few light sabers and phasers for realism?

So, who wins this clown car race? I’m pretty sure it’s not the clowns.

Harris is off to a strong start that really makes her look creepy to those who weren’t already on Team Harris. Harris is not a great public speaker, never has been, but she’s come off as polished and professional in most of her appearances in the last two days. Interviews, not so much, but it’s impressive anyway.

It also looks WAY TOO practiced. No one would fault her a few practice runs in the bathroom mirror. Anyone would be doing that in her shoes. But she looks like she’s been not only practicing but coached. Kinda like she was being groomed for the takeover.

It’s bad long term optics, especially if she can’t keep it up, but its helping her for the moment.

Maybe I’m too cynical but I give it a week max before she rams a foot in her mouth. They keep her out of the public eye most of the time for a reason. Sure, she attends functions but almost never does interviews or press conferences. She’s just not good at those.

It’s just over three weeks until the Democrat Convention. Supposedly, she’s confirmed enough delegates to secure the nomination. Delegates who were elected to support Biden, but who’s counting? The important thing is can she hold it together long enough to avoid setting off a floor fight?

Or any other unforeseen fireworks?

If so, she will look decent going into the election proper. If not, foot in mouth could easily cost her any shot of a win.

Assuming she has one.

Her rally was better attended than Biden’s rallies have been, but it fit into a high school auditorium. Trump’s rallies barely fit into fairgrounds.

Polling would be iffy even if it weren’t a bunch of micropolls. Major shifts, especially from uncertainty to certainty, tend to come with a boost in popularity but it is often fleeting. In a week or so we’ll have some bad polls that are less affected by the whirlwind of the last three weeks. They are still only indicators and if they still use registered voters, poor ones, but y’all do like them numbers and those will be more reliable.

Not very reliable, just more.

Harris is just not popular, media fawning notwithstanding. She’s not good on her feet, just watch that stupid clip from her interview with Lester Holt a few years back if you don’t believe me. She’s stuck with Biden’s abysmal record and her own participation in the border crisis. Bill Maher may not understand why inflation matters but the middle class certainly does.

Once the glitter wears off, Harris won’t be nearly so shiny. About then, she will have to defend that record and face all those troublesome questions she’s hoping will go away, but won’t. Then she has to step into the ring with Trump. If Trump handles himself even half as well as he did in the debate with Biden, Harris is in deep trouble. She comes off as annoying and cloying. She rambles into pseudo profundities that make her sound less intelligent.

She did get a law degree. She can’t be a stupid as she sounds. But that won’t matter if she can’t hold her own in a debate with Trump.

Look, Trump is far from God’s gift to debating. He’s aggressive and hyperbolic. But he does seem to have figured out how to tone it down. If he can keep on point and stick to issues, he’ll run circles around her.

Debate club members won’t need to take notes. Neither of them is a strong debater, but if he can just keep his aggression in check, Trump will have the advantage.

Harris has only a few months to prove herself as a worthy candidate despite the extremely questionable manner in which she became the nominee. Don’t expect that issue to die down. To the few Biden supporters, this stinks to high Heaven. To Republicans, it looks like more Democrat cheating. To voters, it just looks bad. Harris has some high hurdles yet to overcome.

One face plant and she’s done.

Trump, on the other hand, mostly needs to keep out of his own way and keep campaigning. Those big rallies look great on TV. Even if he does have to move them into basketball arenas, the contrast with Harris’ high school auditoriums is still stark.

Oddly enough, Trump’s other advantage may be that the Harris campaign is already toying with the race card. Four years ago, that was still a potent weapon. Now, it’s a boffo bat. The public has grown tired of the whole identity politics thing and especially of the incessant cries of racism. Can Harris handle a real debate or not? No one cares if Trump’s attacks on her record are mean; they care whether or not Harris can handle herself and give as good as she gets.

Trying to hide behind the race card looks like what it is: weakness and incompetence.

On Harris’ side, she may have an annoying laugh but she doesn’t come off as a shrill harpy the way Clinton often did. And she does polish up real pretty. Who knows, maybe she can pull it off?

I won’t be holding my breath. I still expect to see her pulling a shoe out of her mouth within the week. She’s just not used to the kind of pressure cooker this campaign already is.

Trump, on the other hand, has been living in a pressure cooker for nearly eight years. I’m not sure if he even noticed the pressure was on. Couple that with his now calmer, more reflective demeanor and Trump may very well be holding all the trump cards.

So, is he going to win? Probably.

Nearly four months is a long time in electoral politics and nearly an eternity in this particular race. It’s not that I think the race is too close to call; it’s that the race is a steeplechase with zebras. Anything can happen.

And probably will. Probably.

I’m supposed to make you wait to the end for the answer but I never do. If you are after short answers, why are you checking out commentaries? Nah, you’re here to find out what I think the answer is and why. Maybe get exposed to a new idea or two while you’re at it.

So, is Trump going to win? Probably.

IT IS SIX MONTHS UNTIL THE ELECTION!

It’s four months too early to assess the likely outcome. Most of the undecideds won’t start making up their minds until about ten weeks out from the election. The bases are already decided. While there does seem to be movement in the rank and file – which is weird – most of the folks that make up their minds early already have. The battle is for the undecideds and they are slow to move.

The media and academic polling is notoriously bad and that stems directly from the fact that good polling is expensive. The stuff reported in the media is the cheapo micropolls that are weighted out the wazoo. They are cute but so are stuffed animals. Don’t count on them in a pinch.

The good polling starts in September.

While unreliable, the micropolls are interesting. The way weighting works, the rebalancing is done from the last election. Neither 2020 nor 2022 should favor Trump. In fact, they should strongly favor Biden. But we’re consistently seeing micropolls with decided Trump leads in swing and even blue states. That’s beyond weird.

Sure, outliers are a real thing, but they aren’t consistent by definition. These polls aren’t outliers. They are probably still wrong, though.

Wrong in that they are probably overestimating Biden and underestimating Trump.

Do I know for sure? Of course not – you would be reading this behind a very expensive paywall if I had that kind of capability. But the other indicators are favoring that interpretation.

Trump raised $141 million in May on the heels of the conviction in New York. I’ve heard figures over $200 million counting June so far. That’s a lot but the much more interesting bit was that in the $53 million raised in the first 24 hours post conviction, some 30% were new, small donors.

Unlike large donors, small donors never hedge their bets by donating to both sides. So those figures represent new support for Trump. Support from people with small pocketbooks but who are willing to put cash behind their support.

Yeah, that alone means it’s almost certain the polls are currently underestimating Trump. My guess – and it is a guess – is that the margin is at least ten points. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is both ways. Translation: Biden would be ten points lower than the polls show and Trump ten points higher.

IF I’m right.

We’ll never know. Polls are cross sections. They only measure what people are thinking today. In election season, six months is a lifetime and a lot can change.

The danger to Biden is that his rank and file abandons him. They could vote for Trump or just stay home. Either is disastrous for Biden. There does appear to be movement in the Democrat rank and file which should not be happening coming into the general election. If that movement is real, Biden will lose.

The danger for Trump is complacency. Trump supporters are fired up now but it only counts if they show up and vote. The more they hear that Trump will win, the more they may decide to see what’s on Netflix in November.

Well, the Democrats seem determined to prevent that from happening. The Democrats are giving a masterclass in what happens when you think you’re smarter than everyone else. You lose touch with your base and with your rank and file. You misidentify your base – Skittle haired people are not a base; they are a meme. You then start panicking when none of your expectations work out because you haven’t got a clue what normal people want anymore.

Panic leads to stupidity like obvious election interference. Seriously, does anyone actually believe it took three years to bring all four of these ridiculous cases? Misidentifying your base leads to insanity like opening the borders and wondering why you’re losing ground in Illinois and New York after Florida and Texas decide that the ‘sanctuary states’ can deal with the resultant mess.

Way to go, Democrats! You did more to help Trump than his entire base!

I’ve been thinking Illinois was in play for a couple months now. Post conviction, I think New York has tipped the scale as well. Doesn’t mean Trump will win either state but it does mean the Democrats will need to defend on normally safe territory. Defense is expensive in time and resources that Biden needs to be spending in the swing states.

Six months is still an eternity in election politics.

So, do I think Trump will win? Yes, but if you’re asking for my professional opinion, the answer is still only probably. Trump could stumble. Biden could perform well in the debates (I even typed that with a straight face). There could be an October surprise that actually damages Trump. It’s going to be a long six months.

And probably one of the most entertaining elections in American history. Buckle up,. Kiddies! The roller coaster is leaving the station!