In a word, yes.

Sure, sure, I hear South American, Indian and African leaders complaining that the war has nothing to do with them. They’re wrong.

Oh, it’s understandable – the threat isn’t direct. It’s not like Russia is invading Africa. Oh, wait. Okay, so Russia isn’t in a declared war on Africa. Ukraine certainly won’t be declaring war on Africa. Neither is sending troops to fight in South America or India. Case closed, right?

Not really.

Let’s start with India since it’s the easiest one. India wants to be a world power without being allied. So far, that’s kinda working for them. Okay, if not for the warfare, the Armenian support would be hysterical. India sent military support to Armenia to counter the US. Then Azerbaijan invaded and the US backed Armenia. India doesn’t exactly know how to call ’em, huh?

This kind of thing is going to be a recurrent problem for India. India is that kid that’s almost old enough to pour milk for himself but not quite. Hey, being fair, this isn’t an easy game to play. The US invests massively in intelligence – this is why the CIA World Factbook exists. Of course, the public version isn’t our best bright shiny and India hasn’t the experience or money to match the CIA’s efforts just yet. Playing a team sport all by yourself is tough.

Which is why the US doesn’t play by itself.

India’s deliberate distancing of itself from concerns about Ukraine only distances itself from NATO and Western Allies. That’s fine if the status quo persists. It’s dangerous if Russia loses or worse, collapses. India isn’t in the direct line of fire but it won’t be benefiting from cheap Russia weapons or oil any longer either. China is a direct competitor and the US only plays on Team Allies. And Ukraine seems strangely determined to make Russia lose. Gee, this may not work out so well, India.

South America. You know that kid that so badly wants to be part of something that he tries way too hard and ends up not being part of anything? Welcome to Brazil and Argentina. The problem is that both NEED external support. Neither is stable or feeds itself well. Argentina could but governs itself so poorly that it doesn’t. Brazil simply can’t. Worse for Brazil, the ‘carbon credit’ scam is collapsing. No more free cash to not wreck rain forest they weren’t going to wreck anyway.

Russia and Ukraine are BIG food exporters. South America is not self sufficient. They need fertilizer which Russia supplies as well as grain from both. Mostly fertilizer. This gets ugly the longer Russia and Ukraine duke it out. See, despite not having a navy, Ukraine can disrupt Russian shipping and it’s going to have to since Russia is being allowed to disrupt their shipping.

Even if the IMF does help them out, the longer this war persists, the less fertilizer will be on the market. Also, the more shipping Russia will monopolize as it tries to sell oil beyond its pipelines. That hurts Argentina’s exports and Brazil’s everything. The IMF is notoriously picky about its loans – it expects nation states to straighten out their financial problems – so aid may not be forthcoming. China is notoriously lax about its loans – except for the repayment part – and now you know why Brazil and Argentina are so gung ho about BRICS.

China is going broke so this may not work out so well, South America.

Africa. Okay, this one is just beyond STUPID. Africa is directly affected by the Ukrainian War and it can quickly turn catastrophic. With friends like Russia you really don’t need enemies. Here’s why – Africa CANNOT feed itself. Add civil wars and coups and that only gets much, much worse. Africa is completely dependent on Ukraine and Russia for grain. Period.

So, why are the coups happening now? Russia needs the distraction and the political win. Africa is presently next to useless as an ally – that is changing but no where near fast enough – and is desperately dependent on aid. Kicking out France now, no matter how annoying the French are (we hear you, Africa!) is suicidal. When, not if, African food supplies start going sideways, the Russians won’t pick up the slack because they can’t. Russia just banned diesel exports to try and shore up their agricultural industry’s ability to harvest this fall.

There’s a real danger of grain rotting in Russian fields. That likely won’t happen this year – thankfully – but diesel is also essential to getting that grain from Russia to Africa. Whatever happens, this is precarious at best and a looming tragedy at worse.

So if Russia fails and France is butthurt, who saves the Sahel? Getting back in is not so simple and frankly, these coup leaders will be looking to starve those who don’t support them. It’s an African tradition and not a good one. The US isn’t pulling out and this is part of why. If the US can hang in we may be able to help but we didn’t plant last year to feed all of Africa. China can’t feed itself so the best they can do is buy from us. The US has the shipping capacity to get grain out of Ukraine and it just might come to that.

Unless Russia keeps the crazies stirred up and shooting at the ‘colonizers’.

So, yeah, Africa, the Ukrainian War determines whether or not you get to eat. Hint: the Russians aren’t your friends here. Also, what they did to Ukraine, which shares heritage with Russia, they can do to you – and the Russians don’t care a fig about you.

I get it, guys, you’re all tired of Europe and the US mattering in your lives. When do you get to be important enough that the world focus’ on your needs?

I hate to break it to you, but we’ve been doing that for the last seventy years. The developed world has sent insane amounts of aid in all forms to all of you over the years. We keep explaining that we don’t and can’t run your countries – you have to do that. If you want better lives you’re going to have to do a better job governing yourselves.

Oh, don’t be mad – truth is, y’all are doing so much better than when we started. We can’t wave a magic wand as much as you want us to, but we can and DO help. But the best help of all is when you help yourselves. Stop blaming others and figure out what you need to do to fix things. We know it’s hard – we have the same problem and the same instinct to just blame the rest of the world for whatever is going wrong.

It’s okay – in fact we want you to look critically at US policies. How else are we going to find and fix the mistakes? But apply that same healthy skepticism to your own governments, Russia and China.

This war is dangerous to all of you. Pay attention and care, for no other reason than to protect yourselves. The choices you make these next few years will impact your nations for decades.

Choose wisely.