I’m writing this on September 11, 2022. At this time, the Kharkiv front has collapsed in a rout for the Russians. Ukrainian troops have reached the border and have liberated a large swath of territory on the eastern side of Ukraine. Russian media is having a hard time covering for the defeat.
No, that doesn’t mean Russia has lost – yet. But it looks very, very bad. I’m not a military analysis and I don’t play one on TV but I do know a thing or two about politics. In my opinion, the war is now unwinnable for Russia.
Granted, I never thought it was winnable to begin with. I’ve also been inclined to expect a fairly short war. This flew in the face of what military experts mostly expected but they look at the battlefield. However battlefields are supported by politics and the Russians have been losing that war since February 27 when Germany announced its support for Ukraine and the sanctions.
Russia shut off Nord Stream a week or so ago. That gamble to break the NATO alliance is now lost. Nothing like a big touchdown to get the fans on their feet. Ukraine has that touchdown. The political support won’t break any time soon. Russia is out of luck and out of time.
The war’s over politically. It’s just a question of how bad it’s gonna hurt Russia. Hint: Really bad. I still think the Russians will lose all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. It won’t happen tomorrow but it won’t take years, either.
Chechnya doesn’t love Russia. Oh, it’s current strongman does have a bromance with Putin, but most of the population? Yeah, no. Without effective Russian support, Chechnya may, and probably will, break away. If so, that will just be the first domino.
Russia is broke and increasingly broken. This does not end well.
It also doesn’t end in a fireball. This isn’t Russia’s first loss and there’s nothing to be gained by self destruction. All sorts of crazy that they may do – as if shelling a nuclear power plant weren’t crazy enough – but tossing big bombs that make the US toss big bombs at you? Nope, none for Russia, thanks. It’s driving.
So, war’s over, cake and cookies for everyone?
Not so fast, no.
Russia was kind enough to provide MASSIVE amounts of weapons and munitions to Ukraine. The success for Ukraine will result in more Western support. Now, I’m no military analyst but I’m pretty sure that is very bad for the Russian military, especially when you include all the stuff blown up by HIMARS missiles. I could be wrong, but losing all your weapons while the other side gets lots and lots more weapons seems like it might be bad for your war effort.
Politically, it’s devastating. The Russian media is struggling to stay on point, and mostly failing.
Is Putin in danger of removal? Sure, he’s a Russian strongman. He puts his pants on one leg at a time, too. But yes, the risk of a coup is growing. That’s not what I think will happen first.
In strongman nations, failure is not an option. Failure is weakness. Weakness is bleeding and there are always piranha in the water. But Putin has always known this and has protected himself. There’s no obvious successor – this is a feature, not a bug. Okay, it’s a bug for Russia but a feature for Putin. A coup is possible but unlikely in the face of a political void, especially for the chaos adverse Russians.
But that’s in Moscow. Russia is a big place with LOTS of ethnicities and nationalities. Virtually no one, ethnic Russians included, likes Moscow, and plenty would be perfectly happy to be rid of the Russians altogether. Those provinces (Russia has a whole bevy of different state like districts and I’m too lazy to look up all the names so I’m just using province as a stand in) with the strongest historical ties to Russia are likely to be in for the long haul – maybe. Those further afield, not so much.
Yes, Chechnya tops this list. There a lot of provinces that regret not breaking away when the Soviet Union collapsed. If they smell enough blood in the water, they are likely to start biting. Some, like Chechnya, would be groundswells from the public; others will be political elites using public discontent as a lever to get out from under Moscow’s thumb. How many? No way to know. But if Putin is going to lose power, it likely starts from provinces breaking away.
IF – and it’s a big if still at this stage – that starts to happen, the war in Ukraine will be instantly over. But that also has a nasty sting because a sudden withdrawal likely brings home more malcontents than loyal soldiers ready to put down the uprising. Need them at home, can’t take them out of Ukraine – this does not go well for Putin.
As the Russian Federation shows real signs of collapse, that’s when a coup against Putin is most likely to take place. He has no successor and no one to install to protect him after he leaves power so assuming he’s not suddenly in Beijing on some very important diplomatic thingie, he’s going to prison or a pine box. Russians aren’t known to be picky about such things.
Personally, I’d bet on Beijing but only if someone comes up with an actual need for him to go. He’s not the run away type. However, a coup is simpler if he’s not home for it.
Will a coup happen? Probably eventually – it’s Russia and coups are their national past time – but don’t look for it soon. Putin didn’t get to be top dog of the junkyard without knowing how to fight. The nation-state collapse is far more likely.
But like I said, nation-states are resilient little buggers. Sometimes, they really do come back in a surprise win after halftime. It makes the game unpredictable and much more fun to watch.
But this isn’t Hollywood, so don’t expect a Hollywood ending. They may not make the final touchdown. Even if they do, there won’t be a big celebration in the end zone. Russia has already lost the playoffs.
And probably the game.
