Probably. Don’t know if it matters yet.

Boy, you people are detail junkies, aren’t you?

I share Jake Broe‘s opinion that we’re seeing a civil war within Russia. Don’t get all excited. Civil war just means a nation-state is having an internal conflict with significant potential to do damage to the regime. The key word is potential. Just because Russia is having an internal dust up doesn’t mean Putin is out of a job.

Not yet, anyway.

We get all excited at the prospect of internal strife in Russia because we so seldom see it from the outside. People think that the big bad authoritarian government has all its people under its thumb so that they won’t think to rebel or that the Russian people are so deluded that they support every stupid thing their government does.. After all, they didn’t overthrow the government immediately after the invasion.

Being willing to disagree with your government and being willing to be killed for that disagreement are two very different things. This is hard for Americans to understand – we protest if the store has the wrong toothpaste. We have to start throwing rocks before cops more than glare at us. Russians got arrested for holding up blank sheets of paper. Protest in Russia ain’t safe.

At least not public protest.

But there’s more than one way to skin a bear. At first, observers were thinking that all the industrial and other disasters were offshoots of Russia’s legendary levels of corruption. It quickly became apparent that there was more than incompetence afoot. Ukraine does have saboteurs, but either they are the greatest insurgent force in human history, or the Ukrainians had a LOT of help. There had to be a Russian partisan movement.

Funny how enlistment centers in Russia spontaneously combust, isn’t it? Gee, wonder how that depot exploded.

Okay, the munitions explosions were probably just from handling TNT WAY past its expiration date. Partisans and saboteurs can’t do everything.

Point is, Russia was already having more than its share of trouble on the home front, far more than a kowtowed public could account for.

Then Russian insurgents decided to make harassment raids from Ukraine. Just a coincidence that they started just as Ukraine’s shaping operations seemed to kick into high gear. Plausible deniability, anyone?

Cue the shocked Russian videos of civilians suddenly finding themselves under fire and the tearful pleas for protection from the already thinly stretched Russian military. Wagner’s pullout was a nice touch.

Political pressure in overdrive.

The Russian government needs none of this. They have a big enough mess of their own making, thank you very much.

Basically, Russia’s internal dissent is boiling over at the worst time possible. Funny how that happens.

So, you want to know will it take down Putin. No idea. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess as to which straw will break the camel’s back.

As it stands, it’s just another in a long list of pressures on the Russian government. If it grows into a much larger, stronger revolt, then it might well itself endanger the regime. Using up your best troops and straining the heck out of your security forces is a great way to set yourself up for failure if you happen to be an authoritarian dictator.

Oh, that’s right, I didn’t mention Russia’s most time honored means of protest: slow walking and planned incompetence. This worked better in the Soviet Union where getting fired took major effort, but it works pretty much anywhere and the Russian people have lots of practice. Basically, all those peons that keep your industry and economy working don’t bother to do any of that particularly well. Not outright sabotage but not bothering to notice all the stuff that needs to be put right.

Gee, there weren’t any nails in the cases that carry ammo? Wonder how that happened. The nailer had nails in it this morning. Oh, look, one got jammed. So sad.

This kind of thing is hard to distinguish from corruption and plain old apathy making it hard to stop. Just another day in the life of Russia.

Sometimes it’s just as useful to get out of the way of the actual rebels as it is to pick up a gun.

But it’s too soon to tell if the current flare up is anything more than pent up frustration. It may not have any staying power.

Either way, the insurgents and the partisans are definitely taking a toll.

The real question is what’s going on with the Kremlin? Has Putin completely lost control, or is he deliberately letting his staff/supporters gut each other? Don’t dismiss that last one too quickly. Letting the courtiers duke it out is a good way to determine who is loyal and who isn’t. Putin could simply be planning a purge of his top lieutenants.

That seems less likely as the drama plays out. it’s one thing to let tempers flare behind the curtain; it’s another to let them run amok in front of the whole world. Drone attacks, even the cute little one on the Kremlin, make Russia look weak and unable to defend itself. Putin can’t possibly want that – well, not if he’s still sane, he can’t.

No, I don’t think Putin is insane. I suspect he’s losing control of some of his inner circle. They’re smelling blood in the water and being good little sharks, are beginning to circle.

Chalk that up as yet another thing Russia doesn’t need.

Of course, the minute I think I’m ready to wrap this up the dam blows up. Literally. Russia and Ukraine are each blaming the other. It’s all preliminary but most analysts I’ve heard so far are leaning toward Russia as the culprit. The ‘upended chessboard’ seems the most prevalent theory so far.

If it was the Russians – and I suspect it was – it was an incredibly boneheaded move. It’s not going to stop the counter offensive but it is going to enrage half the planet. Best guess is it slows down the Ukrainians attempting to retake Crimea but since Crimea will be out of water in four days, maybe not that much.

Well, Ukraine will probably get all the goodies it wants now. Russia will be lucky if those F-16s aren’t flown by Americans. Oh, relax, they won’t be. But the spoiled brat act has worn thin and Ukraine will likely get everything it needs to kick Russian teeth in all the way to Moscow.

We’ll tell them not to go, of course. They won’t listen. We won’t care.

Even the hard core anti-Ukraine crowd isn’t cool with literal war crimes. It will take a LOT to prove Ukraine responsible – dams are built to stay put. Blowing up dams is NOT easy and tiny little HIMARS missiles won’t more than tickle a dam. This thing went in two separate places. That’s not missile strikes that Ukraine could ever hope to do. But controlled demolition is possible. Russia, not Ukraine, controlled the dam.

So, is Russia having a civil war? If it wasn’t, it’s certainly going to now. This looks desperate. Desperate looks weak. The one thing a Russian government cannot do is look weak to its citizens.

The Kremlin was already in shark infested waters. They already had blood in the water. What idiot yelled ‘hold my beer’ and tossed in the chum?

Civil war might be an improvement from here on in.