Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE!

You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you?

Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls

Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look at the blog or video for the graphics. Also, I’m not explaining in detail so we can cover more ground.

Ack, blue everywhere! Yeah, no. Let’s get rid of the deadweight. Starting with the useless registered voter polls.

Next, we ditch the tiny sample sizes. Oh, wait, that’d be all of them. Okay, just the really small ones.

Okay, next out are the suspiciously small margins of error. This stuff ain’t magic. With those sample sizes getting below plus or minus 3 is next to impossible.

Finally, we dump the two without any margin of error. They probably used confidence intervals which is okay but it takes similar polling methodology to get reasonable comparisons.

Opps, that only leaves CNN. Well, good job, CNN, but I suppose y’all want to see more than just one poll.

Er, sorry about that. Morning Consult is leaving the graphic table. 1.0 margin of error my Sweet Aunt Bippy! Otherwise we’ll put up with the low margin of errors.

Okay, so here we go. As usual, we ignore the stupid average.

Actually, Reuters has a huge margin of error. That’s probably a plus on integrity but it really means we can’t trust it. None of these polls are out of the margin of error, let alone significantly so. Going purely from this, it’s a wash.

But, but, numbers!

Yeah, yeah, inconclusive numbers. I keep meaning to make a video explaining the margin of error. It boils down to this: anything inside the margin of error is unreliable. The polls report the value they believe to be correct but the margin of error tells us what their fudge factor is. Plus or minus 3 doesn’t mean just a three point degree of uncertainty. It actually means a six point spread of uncertainty. When the numbers are inside that six point spread we cannot be sure where the real numbers are.

Inconclusive. Welcome to science. Not nearly as expert sounding as you thought, huh?

This is why we don’t trust polls. They are just tickets into the ballpark. None of them ever bat 1.000. Heck, they rarely even go to bat!

But that doesn’t mean they can’t be useful tools. Let’s see what happens when we compare the medians.

Median? It just means the number in the middle. No, that’s not the average. The number that shows up the most? That’s the mode, not the average. The average? It’s a lump that exists somewhere in the function but may or may not mean anything useful.

Yes, that’s why the average is useless in these aggregates.

Now I’ve gone and ruined math for you, too, huh?

Well, it’s just statistics so don’t feel too bad. Let’s get back on track and check out these medians. Here’s Harris:

You can see my work. Just put the numbers in numeric order – all the numbers – and look for the middle one. Tada! Median!

Harris’ is 48. What’s Trump’s looking like?

Hmm, Trump also has a 48. Interestingly, both candidates have the same mode as well – 48.

What does that tell us? It tells us that the aggregate of these polls has the race as a tie. it also tells us we need better polling.

Hmm, what’s Gallup up to these days?

Yikes!

Okay, Gallup isn’t looking at support for a candidate but how people view the issues. Let’s just say Harris isn’t going to like these numbers. Gallup has five categories. Let’s see what we’ve got.

That all adds up to Harris is in deep trouble. Biden’s approval reflects on her. Poor economic conditions reflect on the incumbent administration, which includes Harris. Poor satisfaction numbers also reflect on the current administration. Having 41% of folks most concerned about the economy means that a LOT of voters will be voting their pocketbooks this November. That tiny +3 isn’t going to help much in party affiliation. It might even be a negative indicator, depending on how it moves.

So, why don’t the other polls show the problem?

Simple, they are all too small to gauge a volatile election. Those tiny sample sizes reduce the confidence the pollster can legitimately have in his poll’s accuracy. A lot of those reported numbers are probably just wrong. With a six point spread on the Margin of Error, Trump could have a six point lead and it wouldn’t necessarily show up.

That’s before polling shenanigans, of course. Both polling registered voters and under reporting the margin of error are stunts pollsters pull to get numbers they like. It’s more telling that even with those dirty tricks, the polls are still inconclusive.

The samples are just way too small.

When voters are volatile – they keep changing their minds or getting upset – a poll simply has got to have a representative sample to be reliable. Pollsters can’t predict what people are likely to do so they can’t properly weight the small samples to make them representative.

Oh, sure, weighting can be misused, too, but it is usually a legit practice. It just won’t work when the electorate is all worked up. Which is why the polls are doing such a bad job – people aren’t fitting into their nice, settled categories. Trying to get the small sample to represent reality is pretty hopeless. When pollsters factor in their weighting, they end up with inconclusive results.

Using the same factors to guide their weighting is why so many polls end up similar. It can make a race seem much closer than it really is. It can also be correct so remember, inconclusive really means inconclusive.

Nothing really surprising about it. Nor is it likely to last. That volatility will shake itself out as voters start to commit to their decisions. This is where we start caring about the undecideds – also known as the independents. They’ve got five weeks to make up their minds. As that happens we’ll get a better idea of how the popular vote will shake out.

If the major issue is the economy, Harris might want to get started practicing her concession speech.

The popular vote doesn’t elect the president. The Electoral College does. Those electors come from the individual States in the same numbers as the State’s Congressional representation. Fancy for a state gets as many electors as it has members of Congress. This is why winning a given state is important.

It’s not that Harris may win the popular vote – which I doubt – but that she will likely lose more swing states if the economy is the main issue. People think Trump was better for the economy and they don’t like inflation and high unemployment. Democrats have historically tended to win the independent vote but that is unlikely in this environment where voters are more concerned about their economic wellbeing.

That’s more than enough to swing those swing states away from Harris and to Trump.

There’s evidence of that movement already. At this moment, I’d be impressed if she got both Minnesota and Michigan. I think Georgia and North Carolina go to Trump along with Pennsylvania and the rest. Harris’ constant need to take time off to prepare for debates and interviews is likely hurting her as she needs to be in the battleground states.

And a few of her safe states. Seriously, I wouldn’t expect New York to vote for Trump but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. Illinois might not be so secure, either. Again, I expect both to go blue, but Harris is going to have to spend valuable time shoring them up to be sure.

Time she doesn’t have.

Well, the horses are turning for home. It’s gonna be a heck of a home stretch!

Harris is going to need her support Governor!

And all of that was written last week. Old and cranky doesn’t mean fast. Okay, in reality, stuff happened A LOT.

I’m going to use this as an opportunity. Let’s see what’s going on with this week’s polls.

Well, we’ve got more to play with, anyway. A lot fewer registered voter polls but a few tiny sample sizes. I’m ditching on sample size, MOE below 2 and voter type. I’m not bothering to show the whole process again. Thank me later.

Well, lookie here!

We still end up inconclusive – it’s the nature of the beast – but notice that instead of Harris pulling her own, she seems to be losing ground. Both medians are still 48. If you just have to average them, it’s still a tie.

Normally, I wouldn’t expect the VP debate to matter much. The one time it probably will make a difference we’re not going to be able to tell. How people view the candidates’ response to the hurricane will be a bigger factor. But the absolute elephant is going to be the longshoreman strike. Overall, this week is not adding up to a good one for Harris.

Next week’s polls should be interesting. FYI: next week I’m dumping all the old polls. Notice how many are from mid-September? Yeah, the pollsters are holding out on us. Oh, they’re polling, but not reporting.

Gee, wonder why?

Oh, sorry about dripping sarcasm on your shoes.

Harris is going to need her support governor even more than I thought!

Okay, okay, so let’s look at the important stuff now. Yes, I’ve ended this post twice so far but I had the opportunity to do a little edumacation so I took it. Knowing how to evaluate polls is critically important, given how much the media prefers the lazy way of just reporting poll results instead of doing any real journalism. If you’re going to be fed a steady diet of polling, you should at least know how the sausage is made.

We’re a month out from Election Day. The popular vote stopped mattering two weeks ago. All that matters now is the Electoral College. The popular vote nationwide is meaningless. It’s the vote inside the various states that matter now. Yes, votes absolutely matter but our system is designed to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority without becoming a tyranny of the minority. The President is elected by the consent of the governed of the sovereign States.

Fancy for we use a filter to keep ourselves from being run crazy by whoever can get the most votes total. Before you think that’s undemocratic remember that rural people have wants, needs and goals that are different from urban people. Having one group always able to run roughshod over the other is a one way ticket to destroying any ‘democratic’ government.

So, all that said, who’s really ahead in this horse race? Well, if RCP is to be believed, Trump is comfortably in the lead. Don’t believe me? See for yourself!

It only takes 270 to win. To be honest, I think this is a bit optimistic – for Harris. I doubt seriously she takes both Michigan and Wisconsin, if she even takes either one. Nor have I seen any projections giving her Nevada.

Of the less likely for Trump to take that are at least on the table, I think he has a good shot at Virginia.

Harris has been working to shore up her position in Illinois and New York, neither of which should have even been in play. They will probably go blue, probably.

Frankly, Harris will be lucky if the map stays this favorable. That longshoreman strike is going to pack a punch and Biden’s unwillingness to tackle it is going to hurt the Democrats and Harris, badly. The hurricane response is also likely to take a bite. Being incumbent means everyone blames you when things go wrong.

Regardless, it’s becoming much less likely that Harris can turn things around in just over five weeks. She doesn’t need a support governor; she needs a miracle.

The VP debate certainly wasn’t it.

Her hope was in turning Georgia and North Carolina. Look, no admin could respond perfectly or quickly enough to address the disaster that was Hurricane Helene. But not deploying the military immediately was dumb. What’s likely to be deadly is Mayorkas’ admission that FEMA is short of funds because so much was spent on the illegal immigrants. That’s likely not going to go over well in Georgia or North Carolina.

Or anywhere else.

Five weeks until the election and Harris’ chances are completely dependent on how well Joe Biden handles both the disaster relief and the port strikes.

If she can handle those two things well, or get Biden to do so, it could turn this race around. But Harris lacks the power and Biden lacks the will. Turns out people you backstab aren’t inclined to help you later on. Biden is on record saying he won’t invoke Taft-Hartley It’s the only leverage Biden has to get the strikers back to the negotiating table.

Gee, wonder why Biden suddenly doesn’t believe in keeping ports open for political benefit?

Ooh, sorry. Didn’t mean to drip even more sarcasm on your shoes.

Okay, really ending this thing this time. Is Harris going to win? Very unlikely. Any other election cycle and I’d say it’s pretty much over and Trump will cruise to victory, but too many insane things have happened this past year to be overconfident now.

Whoever you want to win, the only way to make that happen is to vote.

Whether anyone turns out to vote for Harris remains to be seen.