Yes. Oh, details again?
So, what do you think would happen if the US disappeared tomorrow? Forget the cataclysmic stuff from a suddenly missing continent – if the US could safely just move to Mars what would happen?
Okay, okay, after the shock wore off.
The four contenders for ‘next super power’ are: the EU, India, China and Russia. No, you missed the ride so you can’t move to the US. Who do you want for your next world dominating overlord?
It’s almost certainly not going to be the EU or India. The EU lacks the cohesion to be a superpower – or even a confederacy. India doesn’t have the military moxie although given time they do possess a lot more in the competence department than Russia or China. Russia is losing a fight to a half broke hole in the wall that’s being supplied primarily with hand-me-downs. China is bleeding from so many different self inflicted wounds it’s hard to know where to start.
Not promising, I grant. But it gets worse. The EU hasn’t got what it takes to be a superpower – but it also hasn’t gotten the memo. Odds on favorite, they start throwing their non-existent weight around. That’ll be fine while Russia and China sort out who gets to be the top dog. India will be busy trying to decide who to backstab first. I suspect they will settle for the EU just because it will be insufferable by then.
It won’t matter. A few years and some particularly nasty nuclear warfare later, Russia will likely come out on top. China is dependent on both the US and the EU to buy their stuff – without those customers, China goes broke fast. Russia has saleable resources China lacks – food and oil. Russia also has a lot more nukes. It’s dubious that most of central China or southern Siberia will be inhabitable for the next few centuries but no one will be left to care. China will come to heel or it will be a very dead dog. Russia don’t play.
Russia is also on a very, very short timeclock. They don’t have the technical expertise to keep themselves in power. Europe does. There’s no US to back NATO. It’s been nice knowing you, EU.
On the bright side, fewer nukes. The EU scares pretty easily but even if they didn’t, they can’t win a nuclear exchange without the US’ nuclear umbrella. There will be Russian language schools opening all over Paris and London.
The bright spot is that India is more likely to backstab China than Russia so it will probably fare pretty well. With no US to check Russian expansion, Russia will finally get those warm water ports it has always wanted. It will also be scooping up any and all military hardware it can get its hands on. Those nation states stupid enough to try and put up a fight will be quickly overrun, or nuked if need be. India doesn’t have the stomach for that so it will become a lovely Russian colony.
Securing the rest of the planet shouldn’t take more than a couple decades. Yay, Team Russia!
It only took 45 years for the USSR to nearly destroy Eastern Europe. Russian systems favor Russia only and Russia spreads the worst parts of its culture like a cancer. What we think of as modernity depends on the rule of law and government being accountable. Those things go away in a Russian ruled world. I’m not sure the advanced world will survive more than two, maybe three generations after the Russians take over the planet.
You think I’m exaggerating but I’m probably understating just how bad things will very quickly get.
The US is far from perfect but humans don’t really do perfect so it really doesn’t matter. What matters is that the US is still that boy scout at heart. Little podunk countries can tell us to get out of their yard and we actually will. That has never worked with Russia or China. The US only rarely uses its muscle, preferring negotiated settlements and agreements to warfare. Yes, really – we have far more treaties than we have had wars.
The US is still the first to send aid whenever there’s a disaster, even to our enemies. US cash and effort backed the Small Pox Eradication until it succeeded. Billions worldwide have been vaccinated, fed, housed and clothed at various times due directly to the US of A.
NATO and the UN both function because the US provides the backing -and funding. Article Five is trusted not because France says it will be there, but because the US has already made provisions to go and fight when necessary.
Earth has enjoyed nearly eighty years of relative peace because of the US. Make no mistake, the US didn’t do all that alone – we value our allies because they have so many times stood up and done what they could. The US’ soft power is arguably greater than her military might.
Both Russia and China mean to change all that. Authoritarians don’t like freedom and democracy. They like rule of law least of all. Oh, it’s alright when they set the laws, but not when uppity little nation states start going on about their rights.
Rights those little guys can’t defend alone. Rights the US defends daily, often just by being present. Rights the world would be a much darker place without.
Does the world need America? Does it need oxygen?
Danged spiffy, it does!
