_{Yes, breaks the title rules but all small letters annoys me.}

I have a crazy idea. How about actually letting Ukraine win this thing? We keep – rightly – spending money to keep Ukraine in the fight, what about spending the money to let them win it?

Before you guys even get started, I know what the Sunk Cost Fallacy is. This isn’t a fallacy. Sunk cost assumes that more money will not change the outcome in reality despite the person’s belief that they have spent too much to stop. If spending more money can bring the desired outcome then it is not a fallacy.

Might or might not be the smart thing to do, but not a fallacy.

So, why is spending more in Ukraine likely to effect the desired outcome? Several reasons. First, Russia can’t outspend NATO and cannot compete financially with NATO long term. China can’t bail out Russia because it would destroy its own teetering economy doing it. If NATO and the US show that they are in long term, Russia’s only hope of a positive outcome evaporates.

At this point they are hoping Trump will get elected and pull the support. I’m dubious of that latter assumption but even if it were true, that gives us a year and a half to see what the Ukrainians can do with all the equipment they need. Seems a good bet to me.

Second, Ukraine is building a modern military the hard way. With the training and support provided by NATO, Ukraine is gaining the capability to run and effectively use the complex and technologically superior NATO compliant systems, including those from the US. In 2022 there was no point sending F-16’s because their best pilots didn’t know how to use them and their ground crews couldn’t fix them. That was then – now their pilots have had training to get them up to speed on how US / NATO pilots read all that insane information blast coming from the instruments and their ground crews can pull an engine without breaking a sweat. Sounds simple but it’s not – but it is essential to using Western systems effectively.

Given the movement that is starting to happen on the battle map, Ukraine seems to be making decent progress in building a professional, effective military. Let’s add professional, effective munitions to the mix and see what happens.

Third, Russia won’t stop otherwise. Just how many neighbors does Russia have to invade or subjugate before folks understand that these guys have a different playbook? Russia wants empire, not peace. The only way to get them to stop is to stand up to them forcefully. A defeat from any source will force Russia to rethink its foreign policy goals but a defeat from podunk little Ukraine will damage Russian ambitions for a generation at least.

In reality, a Russian loss is likely to ensure European peace for decades. A Russian win means more fighting down the line. Appeasement doesn’t work, Mr. Chamberlain.

Fourth, now’s the time. Russia isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed but they aren’t the dullest, either. The Russians are learning on the battlefield. That translates to the longer the war drags out, the costlier it will be in blood and gold. It also means that future conflicts will be much harder to win. It will be a very long time before Russia attacks with its proverbial pants down again. Use their foolishness to good effect now or pay for it horribly later.

Fifth, playing this stupid game of ‘military action’ with no intention to win is dumber than the game itself! Did we learn nothing in Viet Nam or Afghanistan? If we plan to win, then go in or provide the support. If we plan to dither, don’t mess with it at all. Do or don’t do – try is stupid. Apologies to Yoda.

We already chose to do. So let’s DO. We aren’t paying a fraction of the human cost here but we are already reaping both the financial and the political benefits. It’s cruel and unfair to Ukraine to do anything less that pursue victory as long as they are still wanting to fight. They haven’t asked for our sons to defend them but for us to provide the tools for them to defend themselves. That’s a great deal for us and Europe – you couldn’t ask for better. There isn’t a short end to this stick – unless we whittle one into it by not supporting fully.

Despite fighting against well prepared defenses and with only the probing attacks so far, Ukraine is taking territory at a rate that puts Russia’s desperate clawing at Bakhmut to shame. There is no question that Ukraine can win – if we let them.

Every ‘red line’ Russia has drawn has been crossed. The danger of all out escalation doesn’t exist. There is no longer a reason to not provide Ukraine with everything it needs to regain all its territory.

Other than our timidity.

This is stupid. We’re America. We go big or go home. We don’t hide from the second best military in Ukraine. We still stand for freedom. And we still stand with our allies. Especially when all we have to do is shove stuff into boxes and send it.

Time to do, people. We’re in it, so let’s win it.