The new polls are out. They may or may not matter. Depends, with them being right on the heels of Biden’s ouster, the public’s opinion may not have caught up with the Democrat whiplash. But, since when are we going to let a little thing like commonsense get in the way of endless analysis?
Well, if you watch any of the legacy media, commonsense has definitely lost. The Democrat cheerleaders like MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC and even CNN are singing the praises of all things Harris. The lone, kinda conservative outlet, FOX, is trying to make up its mind if it should wring its hands or laugh at the Democrats.
I’ve watched more FOX in the last two weeks than in the proceeding three years. I am going to miss some of those braincells. Sadly, FOX is the best of a bad bunch.
I literally saw commentators on FOX claiming that it’s a new race and Harris is competitive in several swing states. Why? Because less than a week after taking over the driver’s seat, Harris has tied or even has a one or two point lead in four of the swing states.
They are wringing their hands while stating – correctly – that Harris is in her honeymoon period.
This is the place where I should insert a hitting head on brick wall smilie.
ARE THEY NUTS?!
If those polls aren’t aberrant, meaning they aren’t completely in left field, Harris is in deep, deep trouble out of the starting gate. Do they teach anything in college these days? Obviously not the basics in Electoral Politics 101.
Event based jumps in poll numbers rarely last unless there’s some substance behind it. Trump having served as president previously probably helped him keep the boosts he got after the debate and the assassination attempt, but even those boosts settled back somewhat. The event will cause a spike that will fade. That’s okay as long as the campaign has the sense to capitalize on the spike while you have it.
When numbers spike, people pay more attention to the campaign. A smart campaign will use that to get their message across to those who might not have given them a look otherwise. Spikes can be useful but they are just cotton candy. It takes know how to convert that candy into meat and potatoes.
All that means is that we expect Harris’ numbers to rise and for her campaign to try to capitalize on it.
Here’s the thing: those numbers should actually spike. Not a few points but a significant bounce. Harris was supposedly just behind Biden in performance before Biden was tossed. A significant bounce should put her in a lead over Trump. Two points in one state is not a lead; that’s a joke.
What I was expecting is for the decent polls to show a slight lead and the cheerleaders to show a significant lead for Harris this week. What we got was Trump maintaining his lead in the decent polls and even some of the cheerleaders.
In case you’re wondering, that is bad for Harris. Really, really bad if it continues.
One polling cycle does not an election make. This could be an aberration and her numbers improve next week.
Harris held a rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend. Sixty-eight people attended. Not sixty-eight thousand, not even sixty-eight hundred, a grand total of sixty-eight people turned out to rally for Harris.
In a blue state.
I’m thinking those polls may not be aberrant.
I could get more people to rally for me – and y’all can see my viewer/readership/listener counts for yourselves. I’d have to offer free hot dogs but I could do it. Sixty-eight is beyond disappointing. That’s closing in on catastrophic.
Don’t have the Trump victory party yet. Elections aren’t over until Election Day.
Don’t bet on Harris being the nominee, either.
It’s the smart move to just stick with Harris at this point. But the smarter move was to stick with Biden and try to salvage the Congressional races. Democrat leadership isn’t exactly batting .1000. Maybe if we told them they are only supposed to swing at the ball?
I mean, the ball being pitched to you, not the imaginary one in your head.
The question, after whether or not these polls have anything to do with reality, is whether or not the Democrat leadership is stupid enough to try and replace Harris this late in the game?
At this point, probably. I mean, they shouldn’t be. They have to know they have lost a lot of political capital with their now skittish troopers. Trying another substitution makes them look even more incompetent and weak. It also drastically reduces the chances of any victory.
But their troops – the elected and appointed Democrats – are insanely skittish. No one wanted Harris and if she can’t improve their down ballot chances, they are not going to be happy campers. Pelosi’s rep as a major party leader is now on the line.
And it looks like a train may run over it.
If the down ballot candidates think they are facing losses in November because of Harris, we’ll have Biden Ouster 2.0 by the convention if not before. They need some strong coattails to make them feel more secure as deep blue states start showing the dreaded wisps of purple. Harris has to deliver. Not the press, Harris, and not in a few weeks, NOW.
Sixty-eight people isn’t even a start.
Barely tied in the heart of her honeymoon isn’t the confidence builder the press seems to think it is.
As long as Trump keeps both feet out of his mouth, Harris’ numbers will dip quickly. That’s normal. It will also freak out the skittish Democrats. Can the Democrat leadership actually keep their party under control if that happens?
Wouldn’t bet on it.
Exactly three weeks from the convention is no where near enough time if Harris’ numbers don’t quickly improve. Very, very quickly. The leadership wants to keep the party unified and under control. The troops want to be reelected and reappointed. For the leadership to get what they want, they have got to deliver on what the troopers want.
Their only tool in the toolbox is Harris. They need a jackhammer and they have a plastic chisel.
This may not go well.
Will they actually panic and try to replace Harris? No idea, too confused right now to get a good idea. Will the troopers revolt and end up with a floor fight at the convention? Again, don’t know, it’s too messed up to figure out right now. The answers depend on exactly how much control the leadership still has and I have no way to know that – yet.
Talk to me next week.
Oh, yes, I’m serious. Look, the actual numbers are mostly imaginary – pollsters are still using registered voters – but it’s not the specific numbers but the trends that will matter. If Harris shows continued improvement next week, these polls are junk and we’ll have to analyze the race differently. But if they stay the same or decline, Harris is in deep trouble and a floor fight becomes a real possibility.
If the cheerleading from the media and the inherent boost from becoming the new candidate don’t give Harris a sufficient boost by next week, not much will. If the numbers decline, those skittish Democrat troopers will start to panic again. Three weeks isn’t enough time to quell their fears and let the mess die down. Does the leadership have enough political moxie to ride that bronco?
We’ll begin to find out next week.
One way of the other, looks like we’re in for a rodeo!
Yee Haw!
