When Hamas massacred Israeli civilians it betrayed the Arab citizens of Gaza that it had been elected to govern. Their atrocities were so unforgivable that this time Israel is extremely unlikely to stop until Hamas is destroyed and Israel’s borders are safe.
The fault for that lies squarely on Hamas. No amount of ‘but what about’ is going to save Gaza. The UN isn’t coming. Iran isn’t coming. Hezbollah will only provide a distraction – it cannot handle the Israelis, let alone the Americans.
In short, Hamas screwed up too royally to be saved.
Hiding behind civilians won’t work this time. Hoping Israel backs down from international pressure won’t work this time. Calling on Muslims to rise up really won’t work this time. Lip service is the best Hamas can hope for and precious little of that.
But, all the protests!
What about them? Orchestrated outrage is orchestrated. It’s not anywhere near enough.
What most commentators haven’t yet noticed is what hasn’t happened. Sure, Hezbollah tossed rockets – that is so commonplace that it normally gets no international attention worth speaking about. It’s not an invasion or a significant military action. But even assuming Hezbollah is just getting its act together, where are the Syrian, Iranian and Jordanian attacks? Last I looked, they all have fighter jets – are they all in the shop?
All the major actors have had plenty of time for retaliation against Israel but none have. Israel is pounding the hell out of Gaza and no Middle Eastern nation states have so much as sent a missile. This is not a placid, laid back region or set of nation states, so why not?
In a word, America.
For those that think we got nothing from all those years in Iraq and Afghanistan, this is the payoff. None of the other nation states are willing to tangle with a PO’d America any more than absolutely necessary. They’ll say the right things but they won’t do anything that risks US boots showing up on their ground. They’ve seen what happens and they don’t want it happening to them.
They’ll let the hotheads and the NGOs have their protests in support of Hamas but they won’t send military aid. Thirty Americans are dead and they are well aware that that alone might be enough to get a very nasty response from America. More than that, most of these governments aren’t total idiots. Israel is beyond angry and America has been handing them weapons. Messing with Israel is suicide unless absolutely every Muslim nation state joins in and that is a non starter.
Saudi Arabia depends on the US for its own protection. They can’t send military aid. Egypt doesn’t want to – they have less use for Hamas than anyone but Israel. Syria doesn’t need more American planes shooting at them, thanks. Jordan wants to continue to exist, besides which it is refugee central for the Middle East. Lebanon can’t even deal with Hezbollah so attacking Israel is out of the question.
Iran knows full well Israel has nukes and subs. An unhinged Israel wasn’t what Iran banked on – no, no thanks. None for Iran, it doesn’t need any extra radiation, thanks. The Taliban couldn’t care less or manage an attack that far away even if they did, so Afghanistan will sit this one out.
Libya, Pakistan and Yemen are all basket cases as it is. They couldn’t attack if they wanted to, despite the Yemeni Houthis claims otherwise, and they really, really don’t want to. Israel doesn’t play nice when it’s mad and America just doesn’t play nice at all – no thanks!
UAE and Qatar are both way too small. Neither has that kind of force projection let alone the desire to be an American enclave. Besides they have to do their hair this lifetime – much too busy to commit suicide by attempting to come to Hamas’ aid. So sorry.
Turkey is a NATO member and intends to stay that way. They’re out.
Everything left is either tiny, embroiled in their own conflicts or is secretly rooting for Israel – Hamas was never that popular in the Middle East.
There will be all kinds of hoopla all over the news as the entire Middle East protests loudly. The UN will get an earful. But any violence will be quickly and quietly quelled. The days when the plight of the Palestinians was useful politically are over. Frankly, the Middle Eastern governments no longer actually care, assuming they ever really did.
They’re also looking at Hezbollah, Hamas, Isis, Taliban and the litany of other terrorist groups and wondering what the heck to do with these liabilities now. None of them have any good ideas. They have created these monsters that no longer serve any purpose. Siccing them on Israel or the US is suicidally stupid now. The monsters have wrecked Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon so no stable nation state in the region wants these groups anywhere near them.
It’s a great object lesson in why not to create monsters. However, that doesn’t solve the problem or deal with the current morass. I know, I’m making this sound a lot more straightforward than it is. Truth be told, the bigger players in the Muslim world are changing. They are less interested in fighting their grandfather’s wars and more interested in saving their collective backsides from the economic and political chaos that will envelop them if they have oil based economies when the oil runs out. They aren’t ready to get rid of all their monsters yet but those monsters are becoming liabilities that the big players can’t hang onto forever.
Iran may be an exception but that seems to be backfiring already Iran seems to have a clue that they kicked the wrong hornets nest this time, or at least their pet monsters did..
Israel doesn’t seem to be playing its expected role of international punching bag and grown up in a room full of kindergarteners. While I am oversimplifying quite a bit, and it probably sounds like things will happen more quickly than they will, I tend to take leaders at their word. Netanyahu hasn’t made the right conciliatory ‘look, we’re being good kids’ noises this time around. In fact, Israel has made very little comment on the civilians Hamas hides behind. This is a very bad sign.
Especially if you happen to be a pet monster. Some monsters are much more expendable than others. Saving Hamas’ bacon is not on any of major Muslim nation state to do lists. If Hamas had attacked any nation other than Israel, the rest of the Middle East might actually have helped with the destruction of Hamas. That happens when you are a violent liability.
Hamas is toast. It’s only a matter of time now.
Which gets us back to the people Hamas betrayed, the Palestinians of Gaza. There are plenty of innocent civilians in Gaza who aren’t to blame for the massacre – what should they do?
Get out. If you can’t drive, walk. Whatever you have to do, do it and get to the southern border. Get out – Gaza cannot be saved. It just doesn’t matter if you think you have a right to be there, Gaza as a political entity has been destroyed by Hamas. There is no recourse. There will be no reprieve. The international community won’t turn on Israel and it wouldn’t matter even if they did. It’s over. Get out, however you can, get out.
It’s not like 2008. Humanitarian aid won’t come until the Israelis have secured the territory. The Israelis will try to minimize civilian casualties but that doesn’t help you if you are in Gaza City while they are bombing it. They know as well as you do that Hamas hides behind you. They would rather not go through you but if it’s a choice between you and their children, you lose. Hamas made it such a choice.
For your own sakes, get out. We can help once Gaza is secured but not before unless you get out. Get to Egypt if you can. They are only taking in 2000 refugees per day but the south of Gaza along the border is relatively safe in the meantime. Israel isn’t after that border because the Egyptians have it covered. It’s 20 miles. That sounds easier than it is, but do it anyway. It’s your only hope.
A government is supposed to protect its citizens, not hide behind them as if they were hostages. A government is supposed to look out for the political and economic interests of its people by keeping them safe to engage in civic and economic life. A government is supposed to handle international relations to the benefit as much as possible of its own people.
Hamas did the exact opposite on all counts. An elected government sacrificed its people and territory for their own political motives. It is the ultimate betrayal of a people.
So to the people of Gaza, I can only offer this: survive. Don’t let Hamas destroy you along with your country. Hide your sick, elderly and injured in the safest places you can manage and get out. What’s coming is worse than it has ever been before. Before Israel was just fighting to hold its own – most of you are too young to remember when Israel last fought for its survival, but that’s what Israel is fighting for now – it’s very existence. They’re scared and they’re pissed.
They’re also stronger than you are. Get out. Once in Egypt, point out the Hamas infiltrators to the Egyptians.
It’s you or Hamas. Israel, Egypt and that US have all chosen Hamas. This once, side with them.
But whatever else you do, get out of Gaza now.
