This is actually nothing new. Originally – at least in this party system – the Republicans were the party of the rich, the elite, the businessman and the fiscal conservative. In the Seventies, this began to shift as fewer middle class and virtually the entire South felt betrayed by the heretofore working class/middle class representative Democrats.
That bit about the South is included because it is a good object lesson for the modern Republicans. See, Civil Rights as an issue was more a Republican calling than a Democrat. Yes, really, in the early stages, it was Republicans, not Democrats who sought civil rights changes. But as the thing progressed, civil rights began to be a popular cause among everyday folks – even some in the South.
That shift meant the rabid opposition the Democrats has been giving was becoming politically costly. Changing course because your base does isn’t a bad thing necessarily but their base hadn’t fully changed course. The South had been solidly Democrat since Reconstruction. A huge part of the Democrat base had misgivings about the Civil Rights Movement, some valid, some not.
It takes time to change people’s minds and convince them to change the way they do things. But who’s got time to listen to even valid concerns and calm people’s fears? Nah, we’ll just force ’em. Democrats began supporting Civil Rights legislation in Congress. The South felt betrayed and by the Nineties, the South was as solidly red as it had been blue.
I’m glossing over a LOT here. Civil Rights was the beginning but it doesn’t explain the loss of support for the Democrat party. Like I said, the shift didn’t really happen until later. The shift had more to do with the Democrats addiction to civil rights to the point that they were looking for oppression under every rug and their increasing swing to elitism.
You have probably been thinking ‘but the South was wrong’, haven’t you? Sure, hindsight gives us a great advantage. But you probably can’t think of a valid reason why the South might have opposed the Civil Rights Movement because you have only been taught from the ‘South bad’ perspective. You probably think Jim Crow was only a southern thing – it wasn’t. The point here isn’t to justify the stupid stuff and the wrong stuff done by the South; the point is that ignorantly feeling smugly superior is an express ticket to elitism and stupidity.
The Democrats took that express. They became the anti-Christian, anti-life, anti-traditional values, anti-middle class anti-party. You’ve never heard it in those terms but it’s just the pig minus the lipstick. Democrats created a big tent of the aggrieved alongside their base. Slowly but surely, the base left for independence and later the Republicans. As they describe it, they didn’t leave the Democrat Party, the Party left them.
All that is prelude to today. The Democrats are no longer the party of the working class, the unions, the middle class or even the poor. They are the party of the liberal elite and the supposedly oppressed: gays, LGBetc, drag queens, gender confused, sexual deviants, and anything else that can be called oppressed. That’s a pretty hollow tent and it will come crashing down.
The part the Republicans should keep in mind is that betraying your base does come back to bite eventually.
The real shift started in the Eighties. There was a derail with the move to independents – this just created a big swing vote that both parties scurried after. The Independents never floated much as policy or platform because they couldn’t. Their base was mostly disaffected Democrats that didn’t yet want to admit they were voting Republican. That said, Republicans started picking up middle and working class voters, Christians and other faiths. Basically, all those the Democrats had left behind.
Problem was, the Republicans didn’t want them. The Republicans were still very fiscally conservative – so was much of the base they were gaining – but fairly socially liberal, which was NOT what the newcomers were. The Republicans of that day were legitimately libertarian minus the anarchy of the Libertarian Party. They didn’t want to be socially conservative or to be pulled in that direction. They were perfectly willing to have that base vote for the candidates the party elite hand picked for the party but not this individualist conservative rabble choosing their own candidates. Good grief, some of those people are Christians!
The social versus fiscal conservative split pretty much defined the Nineties and the early Two Thousands. But that base, disaffected from the Left, kept growing. It also became disenchanted with the Republicans as they never really seemed to get anything done. At least not anything their base wanted done. Still, slowly, but surely, the Republican Party was shifting along with the population. More social conservative candidates began winning outside just the South.
I suspect that was what scared the leadership. Their carefully crafted navigation of never giving the social conservatives what they wanted but never doing anything to alienate them was beginning to beach the party. Rising stars in the party weren’t the old school fiscal conservative, social semi-liberals like Pence but unquestionably conservative and activists like Trump. Being a RINO started ending careers. Not a lot, but enough for the leadership to read the handwriting on the wall – the party was going to become socially and fiscally conservative.
Well, we can’t have that, now can we?
Trump set off a powder keg in both parties. No, not because of his mean tweets but because normal, everyday people were supporting him over the elite candidate of choice. The wrecking ball was hitting both buildings as it became plain that ordinary individual voters still mattered and that neither party had a secure base. The result will go down in history and not in a good way.
I mentioned before that I think Democrats have been cheating on a ridiculous scale. But they couldn’t have done that without the Republican leadership turning a blind eye to it. The Republican leadership was more interested in staying in power in the party than the party advancing politically because of those meddling middle class kids. Getting rid of Trump became Job One only to find out that that base was more incensed and more active than it had been before.
Whatever shall we do?
Nothing. The Republican leadership sold out its base. Republican candidates were outspent despite full GOP coffers. The leadership threw their support behind candidates they liked and left the rest to their own devices. And they STILL took the House. That is a VERY, VERY active base and one that likely isn’t looking any too keenly at Republican leadership right now.
2022 should have been a bloodbath. If Trump runs and SUPPORTS his coattail candidates, 2024 will be.
See, it’s not 1980. We aren’t dependent on five news outlets and the local paper. We don’t have to send a letter to the editor to get the word out. And we don’t need to depend on the Republican party to support candidates, secure elections or get out the vote. California’s state Republican Party made a tremendous showing. They have provided a path forward for other states. The grassroots are still alive and well.
Whether the Republican leadership likes it or not.
Walker was only a few points from winning the Georgia Senate race. He had been outspent three to one and the Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan spoke out against him yet he came within three points of winning. No, that’s not Trump dragging down the ticket – you’re not still watching Fox, are you? That’s the leadership sacrificing their party rather than lose their power over that party.
It’s the Republican Party betraying its base. This can come back to bite in two ways. We can all just drift off and vote independent to make ourselves feel better while we’re really still voting Republican because the other guys are crazy or the base can become energized enough to take over the party by cleaning house.
Throw Trump in the mix and I suspect there’s going to be a major spring cleaning, sooner rather than later. Trump isn’t the party’s savior – he’s the base’s wrecking ball.
It’s only the second act. The third is gonna be a doozy.
